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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 903 Pm Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
.gale watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday morning...
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Saturday..Southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming west late. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy, becoming smooth late.
Saturday night..Northwest winds around 15 knots, becoming north around 30 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming very rough.
Sunday..North winds around 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots, diminishing to around 20 knots. Bay waters very rough, becoming choppy.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming northeast late. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Monday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tuesday night..East winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 903 Pm Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
small craft will want to exercise caution overnight as winds of 15 to 20 knots are being observed on the gulf waters. A cold front will push off the coast Saturday evening with strong northwest and north winds in its wake. Sustained winds around gale force with higher gusts are likely into Sunday morning before gradually diminishing. Low water levels are also anticipated in the bays on Sunday. High pressure moves off to the east on Monday and a long fetch of moderate east and southeast winds will then set up across the gulf for much of next week.

FXUS64 KCRP 090223 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 823 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 816 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

After clearing out during the day, the clouds have stopped their retreat, and on the last few frames of the satellite images are beginning to build back into the forecast area. Currently the Victoria Crossroads are seeing the cloud growth, with some along the northern part of the Coastal Bend. As the winds diminish over land, and the temperatures cool, the expectation is for the clouds to build back to the west overnight, with low clouds and fog expected into the Brush Country. Temperatures look to be good with the current temperature curve.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 150 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

- Gale Force winds Saturday evening through late Sunday morning

- Low chances of rain across across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads

Current PWAT values near 1.20" will gradually increase to around 1.40" by Saturday afternoon as onshore flow continues to usher moisture into the region ahead of our next cold front. The cold front is anticipated to sweep across the region Saturday evening into Saturday night with cooler air filtering in behind the front.
However, temperatures ahead of the front will remain above-average with most locations climbing into the 80s Saturday afternoon. Rain chances continue to be slim to none across the region due to unimpressive forcing associated with the front. Windy conditions are expected in the wake of the front with Gale force winds offshore and 20-25 mph overland with the exception of coastal areas. There is currently a medium chance of wind advisory conditions (winds 30-39 mph for over 1 hour) across the portions of the Coastal Plains. Temperatures Saturday night are expected to drop into the lower to upper 40s with the barrier islands dropping to the lower 50s. Another round of fog is expected late tonight into tomorrow morning with patchy to areas of fog across most of South Texas, especially inland areas.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

- Medium to high (40-75%) chance of below freezing temperatures Sunday night across portions of the South Texas

- Rain chances return by mid-week next week

Windy conditions are expected to continue through Sunday with winds beginning to decrease Sunday evening into Sunday night as high pressure settles into the area. The probabilities of freezing temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning have increased slightly to 40-75% for the northern counties of South Texas from McMullen to Victoria, especially in areas low-lying drainage areas. With windy conditions in the wake of the front and drier air moving into the region, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible from Saturday evening through Saturday night. With onshore flow quickly returning in the wake of the front, daytime highs are expected to warm into the 70s but Monday as moisture returns to the region.

Global models remain consistent in trekking an upper-level disturbance across South Texas along the sub-tropical jetstream.
With the upper-level disturbance and forecast PWAT values near 1.50", rain chances are forecast to increase across the region. As of right now, we currently have a low (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through the end of the work week. A moderate easterly flow from Wednesday into Thursday could lead to an increased threat for minor coastal flooding and moderate to high risk of rip currents.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Dry air has produced VFR conditions across the forecast this evening. Clouds and fog are expected to creep back into the region from the and slowly build toward the west overnight. MVFR condition are expected later this evening with IFR CIGs and VSBYs expected during the early morning on Saturday. The timing of the fog lifting is a little uncertain, with some models clearing out the IFR conditions later in the morning (after 15z) while others are saying by 12z. So have the later times based on the weak pressure gradient/wind. However, we should become VFR but as the cold front begins to move through, expect sudden shifts in the wind from south to southwest, to northwest by Saturday evening.

MARINE
Issued at 150 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Moderate to occasionally strong (15-22 knots) southerly flow is expected to continue this afternoon into tonight, decreasing back to under 15 knots Saturday ahead of the cold front. Winds are expected to veer to the north Saturday evening in the wake of the front with Gale Force winds from 30-40 knots and gusts up to 45 knots until late Sunday morning. Winds will begin to decrease Sunday afternoon into evening and high pressure moves into the area. There is a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms across the local waters with the front with the best chances remaining well offshore.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 67 84 49 63 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 66 79 44 61 / 0 10 10 0 Laredo 63 83 47 63 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 64 83 46 64 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 66 77 49 63 / 0 0 10 0 Cotulla 59 82 44 63 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 66 84 49 62 / 0 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 69 79 52 63 / 0 0 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

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Port Lavaca
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Fri -- 02:51 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:06 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:19 AM CST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:30 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:29 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:54 PM CST     0.91 feet High Tide
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