Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Key, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 8:33PM Saturday July 4, 2020 1:58 AM EDT (05:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:28PMMoonset 5:00AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ870 Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 To 60 Nm- 820 Pm Edt Fri Jul 3 2020
Rest of tonight..West winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas 2 feet. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Showers in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Showers in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Tuesday night..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 820 Pm Edt Fri Jul 3 2020
Synopsis.. West-southwest winds generally around 10-15 knots will prevail over the gulf coast waters as high pressure ridges over southern florida. Daily scattered showers and an isolated Thunderstorm will be possible each day with the highest chances north of tarpon springs earlier in the day before more of the activity pushes inland. However, under the current pattern, there exists at least a small chance of showers or storms at any time... Otherwise, no headlines are expected through the period. The main hazards will continue to be associated with higher winds and seas as well as dangerous lightning associated with passing Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Key, FL
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location: 28.66, -83.73     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 040531 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 131 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

AVIATION. [Through 06Z Sunday]

A mixture of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected at all regional terminals but ECP through the morning hours. Restrictions will clear by 13-14z and give way to another round of showers and storms across the region. The best chances for a storm impacting a terminal today will be at ECP/TLH/VLD.

PREV DISCUSSION [955 PM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Saturday].

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will slowly diminish during the overnight hours. Rain chances are still fairly high into the evening hours across the Florida big bend and adjacent areas where colliding outflow boundaries may allow convection to persist for a few hours after sunset. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s.

For Saturday, guidance shows weak upper level troughing persisting across the region. A gradient in deep moisture is expected to set up across the forecast area with some drier air temporarily moving into the northeastern part of the area. Farther south across the Florida panhandle and big bend, precipitable water values will likely remain over 2 inches. Thus, the official forecast will show higher rain chances across the southern half of the area where a tropical airmass is expected to be in place with some upper level support given the weak troughing. Afternoon highs will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

SHORT TERM [Saturday Night through Monday].

A mid-level trough over the lower MS Valley will maintain a moist air mass under southerly flow, which will be lifted by a surface trough and the sea-breeze circulation. Precipitable Water values will be around ~2.0 inches, which is around 2 Standard Deviations above normal. The Probability of Precip will be ~80 pct both days, which is well above climatology. The heavies precip should occur on Sunday, with a low to mid-level convergence axis translating northward across the region. Considerable cloudiness will limit instability, with high temperatures averaging 3-5 degrees below seasonal norms, so the main concern is heavy rainfall (see the hydrology section at the bottom).

LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday].

The mid-level trough will gradually shift northeastward as an extension of the subtropical high builds into the Gulf of Mexico. The trend will be for the Probability of Precip to gradually decrease from south to north, ranging from 70-80 pct on Tuesday to 40-50 pct on Friday (closer to climatology). Deep moisture will remain across the region, so the potential for heavy rainfall continues, especially invof any surface boundaries. The severe weather threat looks to be of the isolated/pulse-type through the period, which is what we would expect for this time of year. But this will have to be monitored with proximity of the mid-level trough and potential for sheared low-level flow, as a slightly stronger wind field could over perform. As temperatures increase during the mid to late week above seasonal levels, heat indices in excess of 105 degrees are possible, with highest confidence over the FL Panhandle.

MARINE.

Light to moderate winds between westerly or southerly are expected through the weekend and into next week. Seas will be 1 to 2 feet through Sunday afternoon and 1 to 3 feet from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday morning. A wet pattern will continue through the first half of next week. Some storms will have the potential of becoming severe. Strong or severe storms can quickly lead to dangerous increases in wind speeds leading to choppy seas. Waterspouts may also develop quickly this time of year under these conditions.

FIRE WEATHER.

Outside of low dispersions this weekend, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.

HYDROLOGY.

A wet and unsettled pattern is forecast over the next several days as a low pressure system stalls over our area. Pockets of heavy rainfall are possible throughout the weekend. Currently, there is a low risk for excessive rainfall (<10%) as depicted by WPCs 3 day excessive rainfall outlook. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches is possible through the next 5 to 7 days. Isolated amounts could be higher, especially as the area of low pressure slowly meanders across our area over the weekend and into next week. The main impacts would be minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 89 72 88 73 87 / 70 50 80 60 80 Panama City 88 76 87 77 86 / 60 60 80 60 80 Dothan 89 72 86 71 83 / 50 40 80 50 80 Albany 92 74 88 73 85 / 30 30 80 50 80 Valdosta 90 72 86 72 85 / 40 40 80 40 80 Cross City 89 72 89 74 88 / 70 60 80 50 80 Apalachicola 87 76 86 77 86 / 60 70 80 60 80

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

NEAR TERM . DVD SHORT TERM . LF LONG TERM . LF AVIATION . Harrigan MARINE . Oliver FIRE WEATHER . LF HYDROLOGY . Oliver


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42036 - W. TAMPA 106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL 43 mi49 min WSW 12 G 14 1014 hPa
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 50 mi59 min Calm G 1 81°F 1013.8 hPa (+0.7)76°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crystal River Airport, FL63 mi64 minENE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F73°F89%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGC

Wind History from CGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmW3CalmW6W5W8W9W11
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW8W6SW8W13
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2 days agoW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6W7W7CalmN4CalmCalmW7NW6W5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Key, Way Key, Florida
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Cedar Key
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:43 AM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:43 AM EDT     1.82 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:22 PM EDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:50 PM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.93.33.43.22.82.31.91.82.12.73.54.14.54.443.22.21.20.3-0.3-0.5-0.20.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Key, Way Key, Florida (2)
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Cedar Key
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:29 AM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:19 AM EDT     1.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:24 PM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:42 PM EDT     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.83.23.22.92.52.11.922.32.73.33.8443.62.91.90.9-0-0.6-0.7-0.30.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.