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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 317 Am Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Sunday morning...
.low water advisory in effect from 3 am to 3 pm cst Sunday...
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tonight..North winds increasing to around 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. Bay waters very rough. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots early in the morning, diminishing to around 15 knots later in the day. Bay waters rough, becoming slightly choppy.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast late. Bay waters smooth.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday..East winds around 10 knots, increasing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy, becoming slightly choppy to choppy in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..East winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Wednesday..East winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Wednesday night..East winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 317 Am Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
onshore flow will diminish today in advance of a cold front expected to push off the coast early this evening. Some scattered pockets of sea fog may briefly develop later today before the front passes. Strong northwest and north winds, around gale force, and elevated seas are anticipated behind the front overnight into Sunday morning. Low water conditions are also anticipated in the bays late Saturday night and Sunday. Conditions should slowly improve late Sunday into Monday as high pressure moves overhead and then to the east. Heading into the early and middle parts of next week, a long fetch of moderate east winds set up across the gulf which will cause building seas and above normal tides.

FXUS64 KHGX 091146 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 546 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

The cold front is set to arrive today, bringing cooler temperatures along with it. The front is expected to enter the Brazos Valley area around noon today, reaching the Houston Metro around 4-5p, and moving offshore around 7-8p. A lot of changes to the forecast have happened over the course of the last few days, particularly with the potential for severe weather. With the more favorable dynamics expected to develop further north and east of the CWA, SPC has downgraded the area to the general thunderstorm category.
Furthermore, hi-res models continue to trend lower with expected rainfall. The 06Z HRRR keeps the frontal boundary dry through most of the area with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing as the front approaches the coastal counties where more moisture convergence is present. Have maintained slight PoPs (20-30%) for much of the area through the afternoon hours, but with PWAT values below 1" for areas north of I-10 and west of I-45, and southwesterly flow at the 850mb layer, would be difficult for activity to initiate. Breezy northwesterly winds and CAA are expected behind the FROPA. Winds on the islands and for coastal counties west of I-45 may reach advisory levels, but will let the decision for an advisory be made with the afternoon package.

As far as temperatures are concerned, expect today to be rather muggy and warm ahead of the front. Highs will be in the 70s area wide. Cold air will funnel into the area tonight, bringing temperatures down into the 40s with some locations further north touching the upper 30s. Sunday will feature much cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s area wide. Winds will gradually weaken through the day. Sunday night will be much colder as lows drop into the 30s area wide. Current forecast minimum temperatures have a number of locations approaching or falling below freezing. If temperatures trend down in the coming forecasts, a Freeze Warning may need to be considered.

Adams

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

After a cool start to the morning Monday (30s), we should see temperatures begin to trend back closer to seasonal norms (40s/60s) for much of the week. A broad area of high pressure will take shape across much of the eastern half of the conus.
We'll generally be situated on its southern periphery with a mostly dry llvl easterly flow prevailing. Exception might be in the offshore areas where there could be some scattered showers from time-to-time toward midweek.

Forecast becomes somewhat tricky during the second part of the work week. We'll see the next upper trof dip into the Desert Southwest then eject northeastward into the Plains late Thurs and Friday. GFS is quite a bit deeper/further south with the base of the trof compared to the other global guidance. As such, it's depicting a surface coastal trof developing offshore along with its associated precip overspreading the area Wed night & Thurs.
Went with the blended guidance for POPs during this timeframe which are weighted on the drier side
One way or the other
rain chances will increase late in the week as the next cold front sags into the area...probably closer to Friday. 47

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 533 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Northern sites at MVFR with CIGs. All other sites at VFR at the moment. Kept with previous forecast and have BKN/OVC MVFR conditions through midday today. The cold front will move through southeast Texas between 17Z and 00Z Sunday. This FROPA will bring a few showers along the boundary. Hi-Res models are beginning to show another line of showers following behind the front, mostly for IAH/HOU and coastal terminals. Main concern remains winds behind the front. NW winds will strengthen by late afternoon and evening with gusts from 25 to 30 knots expected. Highest gusts are expected at the GLS terminal.

MARINE
Issued at 317 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Onshore flow will diminish today in advance of a cold front expected to push off the coast early this evening. Some scattered pockets of sea fog may briefly develop later today before the front passes.
Strong northwest and north winds, around gale force, and elevated seas (7-13ft) are anticipated behind the front overnight into Sunday morning. Low water conditions are also anticipated in the bays late Saturday night and Sunday with PETSS guidance suggesting levels between -1 to -2 ft MLLW around times of low tide. For this fcst package we upgraded the gale watch to a warning and also put out a low water advsy.

Conditions should slowly improve late Sunday into Monday as high pressure moves overhead and then to the east. But, as we head into the early and middle parts of next week, a long fetch of moderate east winds set up across the Gulf which will cause building seas and above normal tides. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 74 42 56 32 / 20 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 77 46 58 35 / 30 20 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 72 49 58 46 / 30 40 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Low Water Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ370-375.

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Port Lavaca, Lavaca Causeway, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Port Lavaca
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Sat -- 03:48 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:07 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:38 AM CST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:02 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:29 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:51 PM CST     1.04 feet High Tide
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Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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