Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palacios, TX

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:56PM Saturday August 24, 2019 6:45 AM CDT (11:45 UTC) Moonrise 12:03AMMoonset 2:00PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 547 Am Cdt Sat Aug 24 2019
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. Scattered Thunderstorms and a chance of showers.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers in the evening. Scattered Thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. Scattered Thunderstorms until late afternoon. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 547 Am Cdt Sat Aug 24 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Showers and Thunderstorms will continue in the offshore waters of the upper texas coast this morning and continue through the day. Generally light to moderate onshore winds will prevail the next few days. Gusty and erratic winds may form near Thunderstorms that do develop. Shower activity decreases by the end of the weekend and into next week as high pressure builds into the region.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palacios, TX
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location: 28.69, -96.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 241129
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
629 am cdt Sat aug 24 2019

Aviation [12z TAF issuance]
A large cluster of showers and thunderstorms just off the coast
looks to push towards the coast later today, with scattered
showers and storms farther inland. To represent this, have tempo
tsras from iah coastward, but hold at vcts for the remaining three
terminals. Any terminals impacted directly by a storm could see
some gusty winds, but severe weather is not currently anticipated.

Expecting activity to tail off tonight, with a return of showers
near the coast late in the forecast period.

Prev discussion issued 351 am cdt Sat aug 24 2019
Discussion
- locally heavy rainfall possible again today mainly along the
coast. Most areas will likely see rainfall amounts of between
0.25 and 1 inch but could be some isolated 3 inch rainfall
amounts like we saw yesterday. Street urban flooding will be the
main concern.

- Sunday should see less showers thunderstorms than today but
still a small chance of locally heavy rainfall.

- upper level ridging begins to build over texas Mon Tue which
could lead to higher temperatures and possible heat advisory as
heat index values could reach 110f.

Short term [today through tonight]
The radar is beginning to light up over the gulf as an upper low
continues to approach from the south. 500 mb analysis and water
vapor imagery shows that it's not terribly strong, but certainly
has enough heft and tropical moisture to tap into to boost
shower storm coverage today.

The upper level feature itself looks a bit further west than
anticipated... Perhaps aided by a formerly impressive but now
decaying MCC coming off the high ground in mexico. Because of
that, i've had to pump up pops way on our eastern edge to account
for that westward drift. Still, a northern stream trough is
already swinging through north texas, and am counting on it to
rotate through quickly enough that the height falls to our north
associated with it will induce the low to eject to the northeast,
and taking much of the heaviest rains away from us.

Since i'm still largely following the big scale picture of
previous forecasts, there remains a pretty sharp gradient in rain
chances along our area's eastern edge and down the coast compared
to locations well inland to the north and west towards college
station. Models largely look to be even more aggressive than me,
keeping our far northwest totally dry, while I hold with at least
slight chance even way up there. Wouldn't be surprised to see a
couple showers pop up, but the coverage that far from the upper
low is likely to be pretty sparse.

As far as rainfall amounts go, I expect that today will be widely
variable, much like yesterday. There's certainly potential for
some higher end rainfall, given relatively slow storm motion and -
at the coast, at least - precipitable water in excess of 2.5
inches per GOES tpw. I absolutely would not be surprised to see
the wettest of today's storms drop 3+ inches again over some
unlucky spot. I also wouldn't be surprised to see another spot
just a mile or two down the road end up with just a couple tenths
of an inch.

Like yesterday, heavily urbanized locales and spots that drain
poorly should be on guard for localized flooding issues, but the
bigger flooding concern should occur to our east where the
synoptic environment looks a little more supportive. About the
only way I see this going sideways is if the trough to our north
isn't quite strong enough to draw up the gulf low to the
northeast, and it drifts even further west before leaving us
behind, opening up a larger portion of our east to a more
supportive environment for more widespread heavy rain. *furiously
knocking on wood*
luchs

Long term [Sunday through Saturday]
Sunday the broad upper level trough and tropical disturbance that
has brought rain to the area Friday and Saturday should be forced
to move east with the main upper level flow. Precipitable water
values will still be 2 to 2.3 inches and supportive of scattered
showers and storms. Forecast will keep higher rain chances east of
i-45 and south of i-10 for Sunday. There will be a pretty quick
drop off in rain chances from SE to NW across the area.

Monday into Tuesday precipitable water values drop to 1.5 inches
with upper level ridging beginning to build over texas again.

Forecast will still keep some low chances of rain but the bigger
story will be high temperatures back into the upper 90s to low
100s. With humid conditions lingering, heat index values could top
out around 110f so we may need to issue a heat advisory.

Wednesday through the end of the coming week the upper level
ridge retrogrades back to the desert SW and allows for a strong
trough to move across the great lakes. Models have varying
strengths for this trough but the general consensus of the models
is to bring a front into the area late Wednesday into Thursday.

This is more of a backdoor front from the NE so not really much of
a change other than to increase rain chances Thursday into Friday.

Overpeck

Marine
Onshore winds are a bit stronger this morning but not enough to
warrant any small craft exercise caution. Southerly winds
increase Monday into Tuesday as pressures fall over west texas.

This may bring winds seas closer to levels needing small craft
exercise caution but we may only see that increase at night.

Overall we are just expecting winds speeds of 10 to 15 knots with
seas in the 2 to 4 foot range for the next 5 to 6 days.

Overpeck

Tropical
I feel compelled to add a tropical section to the discussion
since the season has been relatively quiet but we now have 2
disturbances to discussion. Neither of them are of concern to se
texas. The first is over S florida that should move NE into the
atlantic away from the east coast. The second disturbance is in
the tropical atlantic main development region. It should approach
the caribbean the next several days. Once reaching the caribbean
conditions will be hostile for tropical cyclones. Until then there
is a chance of a tropical depression or storm forming.

Overpeck

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 96 77 97 78 101 40 20 20 10 10
houston (iah) 92 78 94 79 96 60 30 50 10 20
galveston (gls) 89 82 91 83 91 80 60 70 30 30

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Short term... Luchs
long term... Overpeck
aviation... Luchs
marine... Overpeck
tropical... Overpeck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VCAT2 12 mi51 min W 1.9 G 4.1 80°F 87°F1011.9 hPa
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 17 mi51 min NW 4.1 G 7 81°F 88°F1011.5 hPa
MBET2 19 mi51 min W 6 G 7 82°F 1010.7 hPa
EMAT2 25 mi45 min W 5.1 G 7 78°F 88°F1011.4 hPa (-0.4)
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 26 mi51 min W 6 G 8.9 81°F 85°F1012.1 hPa
AWRT2 39 mi51 min NW 5.1 G 5.1 79°F 86°F1011.8 hPa
SGNT2 41 mi45 min W 8 G 15 78°F 86°F1011.5 hPa (+0.0)
KBQX 48 mi30 min SW 15 82°F 77°F

Wind History for Port OConnor, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palacios Municipal Airport, TX8 mi52 minNW 310.00 miA Few Clouds80°F72°F76%1012 hPa
Port Lavaca - Calhoun County Airport, TX16 mi50 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F78°F94%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPKV

Wind History from PKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3SE10E13
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Lavaca, Lavaca Causeway, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Port Lavaca
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:04 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:00 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:02 AM CDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:00 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:09 PM CDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.90.90.90.90.90.80.80.70.60.50.40.20.10.1-0-0-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.