Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 5:46 PM   Moonset 4:04 AM

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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 149 Pm Cdt Tue May 21 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Thursday - Southeast winds around 15 knots, rising to 15 to 20 knots late. Bay waters slightly choppy, rising to choppy late.Thursday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Saturday night - South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.Sunday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 149 Pm Cdt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
generally moderate onshore winds will continue throughout the week. Occasionally stronger winds and seas are likely to warrant caution flags and potential small craft advisories. The persistent onshore flow may increase the risk of rip currents towards the end of the week and into the weekend.

FXUS64 KHGX 212325 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 625 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

With no major changes to the synoptic pattern expected in the immediate term as upper ridging continues to remain the main feature over the South Central CONUS, the warm and humid pattern is expected to prevail through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
As such, the main weather story for the time being remains the potential for elevated heat impacts. Latest observations show some heat index values breaking into the triple digits this afternoon, a trend that is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. With this being an early season heat event and thus heat acclimation being relatively low, it will remain important to consider heat safety actions if performing any sort of strenuous outdoor activity.
Experimental HeatRisk values, which take into account the departure from climatological normal temperatures, remain at a Moderate level today and will generally remain at this level tomorrow. The heat impacts of highs near 90 today and tomorrow will be compounded further by very high dew point values, generally sitting in the upper 70s across most of the area. Overnight lows will sit in the upper 70s to near 80.

Some isolated showers and storms are possible tomorrow across the far northern zones as a series of weak midlevel shortwaves pass to our north. While most of the resultant precipitation should fall closer to the D/FW metro area, an isolated storm or two can't be ruled out across positions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

UL ridging will continue to dominate the pattern through at least the weekend. Thursday's conditions are forecast to be very similar to Tuesday/Wednesday. Temperatures are likely to become hotter by Friday and especially this weekend as LL cyclogenesis over Oklahoma veers the 850-700MB flow to the southwest. The resulting WAA aloft will boost 850MB temps several degrees centigrade by week's end. Friday afternoon temps are expected to average in the low 90s. Western, inland counties could make a run for the mid 90s while the immediate coast remains in the mid/upper 80s. But by Saturday and Sunday, much of the inland CWA could be in the mid 90s while coastal areas approach the 90 degree mark. Weak shortwaves aloft along with plentiful LL moisture will be fighting a stout cap thanks to the ridge. Therefore, PoPs are very low this weekend (0-10%). Best chance of an isolated rogue shower will be in our northernmost counties. A frontal boundary associated with a potential developing low over Oklahoma may approach the region by Monday or Tuesday of next week. But my confidence in a front (even a week front) making it down here early next week is pretty low. For now, the early outlook for Memorial Day is quite hot (widespread mid 90s) and humid. Heat index values this weekend and early next week could approach heat advisory criteria.
Experimental HeatRisk values suggest Major (Level 3 of 4) to Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Risk over the weekend into Monday. For those of you planning to spend your holiday weekend outside, be advised that temperatures and humidity may be quite high, even for Houston late May standards. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the mid 70s to low 80s. Low PoPs (10-20%) are introduced north of I-10 Monday evening/night due to the potential aforementioned frontal boundary.

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Ceilings will continue to gradually drop to MVFR conditions this evening and will persist through mid/late Wednesday morning.
Brief periods of IFR conditions will be possible, especially around terminals north of IAH. VFR conditions can be expected by Wed afternoon, but MVFR cigs may persist along the coast. Winds will remain from the SE, SSE at around 10 knots or less tonight, strengthening up to 15 knots by Wednesday afternoon.

JM

MARINE
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

A persistent, generally moderate southeasterly flow regime is likely to continue through the weekend. At times, winds will be strong enough to warrant caution flags and possibly small craft advisories. Offshore seas are expected to average 3 to 5 feet.
However, seas could occasionally reach 6-7 feet offshore. Rain chances remain low through the forecast period. Heat and humidity will be higher than normal through at least the weekend, if not early next week.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers. The following river points are either currently in flood stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of early Tuesday morning):

MAJOR// ------- - Trinity River (Liberty): Major

MODERATE// ---------- - Trinity River (Goodrich): Moderate - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate - Brazos River (West Columbia): Moderate (forecast)

MINOR// ------- - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Minor - Brazos River (Richmond): Minor - Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor - Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat persists. 

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 77 89 75 91 / 10 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 78 87 76 90 / 10 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 79 83 78 84 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.

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Port Lavaca, Lavaca Causeway, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Port Lavaca
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Tue -- 01:21 AM CDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:05 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:32 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:15 AM CDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:46 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:14 PM CDT     Sunset
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Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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