Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Freeport, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Mid-level low pushing eastward from the northwestern area of Mexico and western Texas will continue to proceed eastward during the overnight hours. Meanwhile, we may see embedded vort maxes moving overhead ahead of the trough. Along the surface there will be a cold front moving near the south central region of Texas overnight and is to continue eastward towards our western counties Wednesday morning, providing additional lift over our area.

This combination could lead to periods of isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday morning. Although most of the activity is expected to be over areas north of I-10 (where the highest amounts of moisture will be), I wouldn't discard a shower or two for areas south of I-10. Aside from the rain chances, winds will remain elevated and gusty tonight into Wednesday as a 40-50 knot low level jet prevails overhead. It will be warm and muggy tonight with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The mid-level low and the cold front seem to be approaching our western counties roughly around the mid to late morning period on Wednesday, while another cold front over the central Texas follows shortly behind. We will likely see a good rise in moisture in the morning as moisture converges over Southeast TX ahead of the cold fronts (PWATS ranging between 1.5 to 1.8 inches) and with it an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity over most of Southeast Texas. By the late morning to afternoon hours, instability will increase leading to the development of heavier showers and stronger storms while shear remains fairly good ahead of the frontal passage. There is the potential for isolated severe storms, capable of producing strong damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. For those who like to know a little about the numbers within forecast soundings, the 00Z NAM sounding for early to mid afternoon hours shows SFC CAPE values near 1000-1500 J/kg, SFC-1km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2, DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, SFC-1km shear of 20-25 knots, and 700-500mb lapse rate of 6.0-7.0 C/km ahead of the frontal passages.

The SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday will include a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of Severe Thunderstorms for areas east of a line extending from Burleson County southward into Brazoria County, and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) over the rest of Southeast Texas. Although all severe weather hazards are possible, damaging winds have the highest probability. The best timing for the severe weather potential at this time continues to be during the late morning to early evening hours and could affect your commute. Make sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast and have multiple ways of receiving weather warnings.

Showers and storms will decrease Wednesday night as drier and cooler air moves across the region in the wake of the fronts.
Temperatures will decrease Wednesday night and many locations will see lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s before sunrise Thursday.
Cooler weather prevails on Thursday with highs ranging in the mid to upper 60s areawide, which is a few degrees below normal for this time of the year. FINALLY A SPRING DAY :D.

Although fair weather conditions will prevail through the upcoming weekend, the sad part is that the cooler conditions will not. The warming trend will already begin on Friday as the southerly flow returns to our region, and the highs will be about 10 degrees warmer that day (ranging in the mid 70s for most locations inland). There is a chance we will once again have some moisture convergence on Sunday ahead of another cold front and the highs will rise into the mid to upper 80s that day. Thus, be prepared for the heat if you plan to work or spend time outdoors on Sunday. Moisture amounts may be enough for some isolated showers and storms ahead of the front, possibly during the late afternoon to early night hours. Dry and cool air will once again move in behind the front with fair weather expected Monday and Tuesday.

Cotto

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Gusty south winds and mix of IFR/high MVFR across the area, with some very light -SHRA around CLL and UTS to start. Should see another night with low MVFR and potentially some IFR CIGs , but generally anticipating slightly better conditions tonight due to stronger winds.

Focus then turns to potential for TSRA ahead of/along incoming front. Highest confidence farther north, through IAH or so which have prevailing SHRA and TEMPO TSRA for broken line of storms.
Farther south, confidence in line holding together diminishes, and transition to TSRA becoming a PROB30 from HOU coastward. Northern sites and IAH extended begin to address wind shift after FROPA.

MARINE
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

SE winds tonight will be 15-20 kts and seas will be 4-6 ft.
Caution flags for the bays and nearshore waters and a Small Craft Advisory for the offshore waters are in effect through 12Z Wed morning. A cold front is progged to push across SE Texas on Wed, bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms over the bays and Gulf waters throughout the day. Strong storms are possible mainly during the afternoon to late evening hours. Strong north- northwest to north winds will develop in the wake of the front Wed night into Thursday afternoon. Bays will be choppy and seas will rise to 6-8 ft, although seas up to 10 ft are possible further offshore. Small Craft Advisories will be likely. Gusts could be near gale strength at times. Winds relax and seas gradually decrease Thu night. Light onshore winds return Friday and continue into the upcoming weekend. Another cold front will pass through late Sun. Expect strong NW winds in the wake of the front late Sun into Mon.

Cotto

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 67 79 45 66 / 60 80 30 0 Houston (IAH) 71 81 51 68 / 30 90 40 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 78 56 67 / 10 70 30 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ330-335-350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370-375.