Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Mary, FL
December 10, 2023 6:38 AM EST (11:38 UTC)
Sunrise 7:06AM Sunset 5:29PM Moonrise 4:45AM Moonset 3:35PM
AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 511 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Monday morning...
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely in the evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 8 to 10 feet with occasional seas to 14 feet. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Monday morning...
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely in the evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 8 to 10 feet with occasional seas to 14 feet. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 511 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..Southeast to southerly winds will increase today ahead of an approaching cold front, as will chances for showers and lightning storms, especially by Sunday evening. A stout area of high pressure moves in behind the front. A frontal boundary sets up over south florida into late week with winds and seas expected to remain elevated.
Gulf stream hazards..South to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing up to 20 to 25 knots well offshore of volusia and brevard counties this afternoon. Seas building up to 6 feet north of sebastian inlet this afternoon.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday, december 9th.
48 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 34 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
Synopsis..Southeast to southerly winds will increase today ahead of an approaching cold front, as will chances for showers and lightning storms, especially by Sunday evening. A stout area of high pressure moves in behind the front. A frontal boundary sets up over south florida into late week with winds and seas expected to remain elevated.
Gulf stream hazards..South to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing up to 20 to 25 knots well offshore of volusia and brevard counties this afternoon. Seas building up to 6 feet north of sebastian inlet this afternoon.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday, december 9th.
48 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 34 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KMLB 101001 AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 501 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
Issued at 500 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
...Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible From Late This Afternoon Into the Evening Hours...
...Turning Much Cooler Behind a Cold Front Late Tonight Into Early This Week...
Currently-Today...Not much currently going on across east central Florida except for a few light showers over the local Atlantic waters and near the Treasure Coast. Analysis charts show an area of low pressure over southeastern Canada with a cold front upstream of central Florida stretching across the Mid and Deep south. Current temperatures are in the mid 60s to low 70s with another couple to a few degrees of cooling expected this morning.
Rain chances will increase into the late afternoon and evening from north (PoPs ~30-70%) to south (PoPs ~30-50%) ahead of the cold front that will track across central Florida late this evening into early Monday. Isolated showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop this afternoon, before the main line of storms move through after 5pm. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast, mainly between 5pm-12am. A 30-40kt southwesterly LLJ in place, combined with 500-1,000 J/kg MUCAPE, 40-50kts 0-6km shear, steepening ML lapse rates (> 7.0 C/km), and -11/-12C 500mb temps, will lead to the potential for strong to marginally severe storms, mainly to the north of I-4. The main hazards will be damaging wind gusts of 50-60mph, hail up to 1" in diameter, heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lighting strikes. Hi-res guidance also shows pockets of >200m^2/s^2 0-3km SRH developing this evening, so a brief tornado can't be ruled out. For this reason, a Marginal Risk has been placed over areas north of I-4 by the SPC. Even outside of lighting storms, winds will be breezy from the south-southwest with gusts up to 25mph forecast. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 80s.
Tonight... The cold front will sag across the local Atlantic waters overnight, before exiting east central Florida by the early morning hours. Winds will veer north-northwest behind the front with gusts up to 25-30mph. Expect mostly cloudy skies with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s north of Melbourne and the mid 50s to low 60s to the south.
Monday-Tuesday...Northerly winds usher in a drier and much cooler airmass into the area Monday behind the cold front. Morning temps in the mid 40s to 50s only rise into the 60s across the area during Monday afternoon even with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures into Monday night will again fall into the mid to upper 40s near to NW of I-4 and in the 50s across much of the rest of east central FL.
Strong high pressure building NE toward the Mid-Atlantic states quickly veers low level winds onshore into Tuesday, becoming breezy into the afternoon. This will start a gradual warming trend across the area, with dry conditions continuing. Highs increase to the low to mid 70s on Tuesday, with increasing high clouds through the day.
Wednesday-Saturday...Pressure gradient continues to tighten into mid to late week between strong high pressure north of the region and stalled frontal boundary south of FL. This will lead to a breezy to windy onshore flow that looks to continue through the rest of the work week. Stronger onshore flow will continue to increase moisture and rain chances through mid to late week, with the GFS showing much higher coverage of rainfall, as well as higher precipitation totals compared to the ECMWF, as it develops an area of low pressure over the southern Gulf (along the front) and lifts this feature N/NE. The ECMWF also develops an area of low pressure in the same vicinity but is slower with formation and northward progression. Currently have PoPs limited to areas southeast of I-4 on Wednesday, increasing up to 30-50% across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Chance PoPs around 30-50% then expand northward across the area through Thursday into Friday. However, should the GFS solution look more likely, these rain chances will need to be raised even higher through this period. Highs remain in the 70s, with lows in the 60s.
The stronger onshore flow will lead to building seas through late week, which will lead to hazardous surf conditions, including higher risk of rip currents and large breaking waves at the beaches. Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion concerns will also increase through mid to late week, especially around the times of high tide.
MARINE
Issued at 500 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Currently-Tonight... A cold front will sag across the local Atlantic waters this evening into the overnight hours. Scattered to numerous showers and lighting storms are forecast late this afternoon and into the early morning with isolated storms capable of wind gusts up to 40-50mph, heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lightning strikes.
South-southwest winds around 15-20kts nearshore and 20-25kts offshore (20-60nm) will veer north-northwest overnight and increase to around 20-25kts with gusts to 35kts (occasional gusts to gale force - 40kts over offshore Volusia) into Monday morning behind the front. Seas build to 3-5ft nearshore and up to 6-7ft offshore. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect at 10am for the offshore Volusia and Brevard county waters, before extending to the rest of the waters overnight.
Monday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions to persist through early this week. N/NW winds early Monday morning will range from 20- 25 knots, decreasing to 15-20 knots into the afternoon and veering to the N/NE into Monday night. Seas will continue to build up to 7 to 8 feet in this fresh northerly breeze. A Small Craft Advisory will continue for all of the waters through much of Monday morning, and then fall back to just the Gulf Stream waters Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Tuesday-Thursday...Boating conditions will deteriorate further through mid to late week with gale conditions possible later into the week as a fresh to strong onshore breeze develops between strong high pressure to the north of the area, and stalled front south of FL. Have E/NE winds increasing to 20-25 knots from Tuesday through Wednesday time frame, with additional increases up to 25-30 knots on Thursday. This stronger onshore flow combined with a long easterly fetch will lead to significant increases in seas, with wave heights building from up to 6-8 feet Tuesday up to 10-15 feet into Thursday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 500 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Much drier and cooler air filters into the area behind the cold front into early this week. Min RH values are currently forecast as low as the upper 30s to low 40s across the interior on Monday afternoon, with northerly winds forecast around 10 mph. Low level flow then veers onshore and becomes breezy through mid-week, with moisture and rain chances increasing, keeping Min RH values above critical values.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
TAFs start off VFR with light southerly winds. A cold front will track across east central Florida this evening into the overnight hours which will bring the potential for strong to severe storms, mainly north of I-4. Southerly winds veer west to northwest overnight with gusts to 20-25kts. Expect MVFR conditions this evening/overnight with TEMPO -TSRA and low CIGs.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 82 48 61 49 / 40 60 0 0 MCO 83 51 63 50 / 30 50 0 0 MLB 83 56 67 55 / 20 40 0 0 VRB 84 58 69 57 / 20 40 0 0 LEE 81 47 61 45 / 70 60 0 0 SFB 83 50 62 48 / 40 60 0 0 ORL 83 51 64 51 / 40 60 0 0 FPR 84 59 69 57 / 20 40 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-552.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 3 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 501 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
Issued at 500 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
...Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible From Late This Afternoon Into the Evening Hours...
...Turning Much Cooler Behind a Cold Front Late Tonight Into Early This Week...
Currently-Today...Not much currently going on across east central Florida except for a few light showers over the local Atlantic waters and near the Treasure Coast. Analysis charts show an area of low pressure over southeastern Canada with a cold front upstream of central Florida stretching across the Mid and Deep south. Current temperatures are in the mid 60s to low 70s with another couple to a few degrees of cooling expected this morning.
Rain chances will increase into the late afternoon and evening from north (PoPs ~30-70%) to south (PoPs ~30-50%) ahead of the cold front that will track across central Florida late this evening into early Monday. Isolated showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop this afternoon, before the main line of storms move through after 5pm. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast, mainly between 5pm-12am. A 30-40kt southwesterly LLJ in place, combined with 500-1,000 J/kg MUCAPE, 40-50kts 0-6km shear, steepening ML lapse rates (> 7.0 C/km), and -11/-12C 500mb temps, will lead to the potential for strong to marginally severe storms, mainly to the north of I-4. The main hazards will be damaging wind gusts of 50-60mph, hail up to 1" in diameter, heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lighting strikes. Hi-res guidance also shows pockets of >200m^2/s^2 0-3km SRH developing this evening, so a brief tornado can't be ruled out. For this reason, a Marginal Risk has been placed over areas north of I-4 by the SPC. Even outside of lighting storms, winds will be breezy from the south-southwest with gusts up to 25mph forecast. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 80s.
Tonight... The cold front will sag across the local Atlantic waters overnight, before exiting east central Florida by the early morning hours. Winds will veer north-northwest behind the front with gusts up to 25-30mph. Expect mostly cloudy skies with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s north of Melbourne and the mid 50s to low 60s to the south.
Monday-Tuesday...Northerly winds usher in a drier and much cooler airmass into the area Monday behind the cold front. Morning temps in the mid 40s to 50s only rise into the 60s across the area during Monday afternoon even with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures into Monday night will again fall into the mid to upper 40s near to NW of I-4 and in the 50s across much of the rest of east central FL.
Strong high pressure building NE toward the Mid-Atlantic states quickly veers low level winds onshore into Tuesday, becoming breezy into the afternoon. This will start a gradual warming trend across the area, with dry conditions continuing. Highs increase to the low to mid 70s on Tuesday, with increasing high clouds through the day.
Wednesday-Saturday...Pressure gradient continues to tighten into mid to late week between strong high pressure north of the region and stalled frontal boundary south of FL. This will lead to a breezy to windy onshore flow that looks to continue through the rest of the work week. Stronger onshore flow will continue to increase moisture and rain chances through mid to late week, with the GFS showing much higher coverage of rainfall, as well as higher precipitation totals compared to the ECMWF, as it develops an area of low pressure over the southern Gulf (along the front) and lifts this feature N/NE. The ECMWF also develops an area of low pressure in the same vicinity but is slower with formation and northward progression. Currently have PoPs limited to areas southeast of I-4 on Wednesday, increasing up to 30-50% across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Chance PoPs around 30-50% then expand northward across the area through Thursday into Friday. However, should the GFS solution look more likely, these rain chances will need to be raised even higher through this period. Highs remain in the 70s, with lows in the 60s.
The stronger onshore flow will lead to building seas through late week, which will lead to hazardous surf conditions, including higher risk of rip currents and large breaking waves at the beaches. Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion concerns will also increase through mid to late week, especially around the times of high tide.
MARINE
Issued at 500 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Currently-Tonight... A cold front will sag across the local Atlantic waters this evening into the overnight hours. Scattered to numerous showers and lighting storms are forecast late this afternoon and into the early morning with isolated storms capable of wind gusts up to 40-50mph, heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lightning strikes.
South-southwest winds around 15-20kts nearshore and 20-25kts offshore (20-60nm) will veer north-northwest overnight and increase to around 20-25kts with gusts to 35kts (occasional gusts to gale force - 40kts over offshore Volusia) into Monday morning behind the front. Seas build to 3-5ft nearshore and up to 6-7ft offshore. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect at 10am for the offshore Volusia and Brevard county waters, before extending to the rest of the waters overnight.
Monday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions to persist through early this week. N/NW winds early Monday morning will range from 20- 25 knots, decreasing to 15-20 knots into the afternoon and veering to the N/NE into Monday night. Seas will continue to build up to 7 to 8 feet in this fresh northerly breeze. A Small Craft Advisory will continue for all of the waters through much of Monday morning, and then fall back to just the Gulf Stream waters Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Tuesday-Thursday...Boating conditions will deteriorate further through mid to late week with gale conditions possible later into the week as a fresh to strong onshore breeze develops between strong high pressure to the north of the area, and stalled front south of FL. Have E/NE winds increasing to 20-25 knots from Tuesday through Wednesday time frame, with additional increases up to 25-30 knots on Thursday. This stronger onshore flow combined with a long easterly fetch will lead to significant increases in seas, with wave heights building from up to 6-8 feet Tuesday up to 10-15 feet into Thursday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 500 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Much drier and cooler air filters into the area behind the cold front into early this week. Min RH values are currently forecast as low as the upper 30s to low 40s across the interior on Monday afternoon, with northerly winds forecast around 10 mph. Low level flow then veers onshore and becomes breezy through mid-week, with moisture and rain chances increasing, keeping Min RH values above critical values.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
TAFs start off VFR with light southerly winds. A cold front will track across east central Florida this evening into the overnight hours which will bring the potential for strong to severe storms, mainly north of I-4. Southerly winds veer west to northwest overnight with gusts to 20-25kts. Expect MVFR conditions this evening/overnight with TEMPO -TSRA and low CIGs.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 82 48 61 49 / 40 60 0 0 MCO 83 51 63 50 / 30 50 0 0 MLB 83 56 67 55 / 20 40 0 0 VRB 84 58 69 57 / 20 40 0 0 LEE 81 47 61 45 / 70 60 0 0 SFB 83 50 62 48 / 40 60 0 0 ORL 83 51 64 51 / 40 60 0 0 FPR 84 59 69 57 / 20 40 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-552.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 3 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 41069 | 45 mi | 90 min | S 7.8G | 69°F | 69°F | 30.02 | 67°F | |
| 41070 | 45 mi | 88 min | 69°F | 3 ft | ||||
| TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL | 47 mi | 68 min | S 8G | 70°F | 74°F | 30.01 | ||
| GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL | 61 mi | 113 min | S 2.9 | 68°F | 30.06 | 65°F | ||
| 41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL | 64 mi | 38 min | SSE 21G | 77°F | 79°F | 30.03 | 68°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSFB ORLANDO SANFORD INTL,FL | 6 sm | 45 min | SW 03 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 30.04 | |
| KORL EXECUTIVE,FL | 16 sm | 45 min | calm | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 30.04 | |
| KDED DELAND MUNISIDNEY H TAYLOR FIELD,FL | 20 sm | 28 min | calm | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 63°F | 61°F | 94% | 30.05 | |
| KMCO ORLANDO INTL,FL | 24 sm | 45 min | SW 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 30.05 |
Wind History from SFB
(wind in knots)Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Ponce Inlet, Halifax River, Florida, Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Ponce De Leon Inlet South, Florida (sub), Tide feet
Melbourne, FL,
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