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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 1027 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
This afternoon..North winds 10 knots, becoming 5 to 10 knots late. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 9 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 1027 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis..Poor boating conditions will linger in the gulf stream the rest of the day as high pressure building across the southeast u.s. Moves seaward into the western atlantic. Winds and seas will increase again Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, as will chances for showers and lightning storms. Winds and seas remain elevated early next week has a stout area of high pressure moves in behind the front.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas up to 6 feet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Wednesday, december 6th.
49 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 35 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 071532 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1032 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY, PREV DISCUSSION

UPDATE
Issued at 1029 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Forecast remains on track for a cool but pleasant day. Only thing to keep an eye out for will be some sprinkles or light showers moving in the marine stratocu moving onshore and possibly inland a bit this afternoon from the Cape southward. Keeping a silent 14 pct PoP in the forecast for now, with the plan to monitor development and add sprinkles or light showers to the forecast if necessary. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions with mostly clear skies inland becoming mostly cloudy tonight as high clouds move in again. Afternoon highs from the upper 60s to the north to the lower 70s to the south. Cold overnight as lows drop back into the low to mid 50s, except in the cooler parts of northern Volusia and Lake counties where it'll be in the mid to upper 40s.

MARINE
Issued at 1029 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Today-Tonight...High pressure over the southeast U.S. shifts east and offshore the NOFL-GA-SC coast. Boating conditions remain poor in the Gulf Stream as seas 4-6 ft slowly subside. Closer to shore, seas 3-4 feet in an 8 sec swell. A stubborn land breeze from the overnight will keep winds near the coast NNW-NNE 10-15 kts through the day, while across the rest of the waters, winds NE-E 5-10 kts.
Land breeze should dissipate this evening, with winds across the waters becoming E-SE 5-10 kts. A few sprinkles or light showers possible.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. A brief -SHRA possible INVOF TIX-SUA, but not expecting any CIG reductions or significant VIS reductions. NNW-N winds 5-10 kts veer to NE-ENE by the evening, then back a bit in the late evening before becoming light to calm overnight. SCT-BKN 040-050 stratocu moving onshore from TIX-SUA.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 440 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Today...A progressive mid level trough off the eastern seaboard early this morning will continue to move offshore into the Atlantic with weak mid level ridging approaching the state this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure centered over Alabama will shift eastward toward the SE GA coast this afternoon. After a cool start, with temps mainly in the 40s across the interior at sunrise, afternoon highs are expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Low level flow in the H9-H8 layer will veer to the NE during the morning hours and E/ESE this afternoon. This will allow marine stratocu to make its way onshore, most prevalent along the Treasure Coast with scattered stratocu for the northern interior.
Otherwise a very dry airmass is in place in the mid levels with low PWATS and little in the way of moisture return. There will be southward flowing long shore current this morning with, and also a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic beaches.

Tonight...Surface high pressure to the north will elongate eastward offshore with light onshore flow. Marine stratocu looks again most prevalent across the Treasure Coast with partly cloudy skies for the interior. Surface winds will be become light to calm across the interior with relatively dry airmass in place. Trended low temps a few degrees lower than NBM guidance, which should allow lows to reach the mid 40s in a few of the colder spots across interior Volusia and Lake counties. Otherwise, lows are expected in the lower to mid 50s.

Friday-Sunday... High pressure will gradually build and slide east over the western Atlantic through the weekend. Moisture will increase through Sunday with PWATs in the 1-1.4" range Friday, then increasing to 1.4-1.9" on Saturday and Sunday. Isolated showers are expected through Saturday, mainly over the local Atlantic waters and near the coast. Rain chances (PoPs ~ 40-60%) increase Sunday ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the eastern CONUS into Monday. Onshore southeasterly winds will increase and veer south to southwesterly Sunday ahead of the front. Winds are forecast to gust up to 20-25mph Sunday afternoon, especially along the coast. Expect plenty of cloud cover Friday and Sunday with partly cloudy skies on Saturday. High temperatures in the 70s Friday will rise into the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday and Sunday. Lows are generally forecast to drop into the mid 40s to mid 50s Friday morning, then the upper 50s to upper 60s through the weekend.

Monday-Wednesday... Guidance (ECMWF/CMC/GFS) is in good agreement that the aforementioned cold front will move southeast across central Florida into Monday, before clearing the Treasure Coast by the late morning/early afternoon. Scattered showers with isolated lightning storms are forecast early Monday morning with chances dwindling from north (PoPs ~30/40%) to south (PoPs ~ 40/50%) into the late morning hours. West to southwest winds veer north Monday afternoon, then northeasterly through Wednesday. Winds will be breezy, especially along the coast with gusts up to 25mph each afternoon. Dry air will filter in behind the front Monday afternoon with PWATs dropping into the 0.25-0.50" range. Isolated showers are forecast over the local Atlantic and the Treasure Coast Tuesday. Moisture will increase midweek with isolated to scattered showers returning Wednesday across central Florida. Highs in the low 60s to low 70s Monday rise into the 70s areawide Tuesday and Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 49 73 62 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 69 53 74 62 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 72 55 77 65 / 10 10 10 10 VRB 73 55 77 65 / 10 10 20 20 LEE 69 51 74 60 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 70 52 75 62 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 70 54 75 63 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 73 53 77 65 / 10 10 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:43 AM EST     2.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:10 AM EST     0.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:58 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:50 PM EST     2.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:32 PM EST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida, Tide feet

Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:46 AM EST     2.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:07 AM EST     0.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:58 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:53 PM EST     2.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:31 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida (2), Tide feet

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