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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 937 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
This afternoon..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 5 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A chance of showers.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 937 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis..A moderate to fresh northwest to north breeze will maintain choppy seas today, especially near the gulf stream. A large high pressure ridge will settle across the southeast u.s. And north florida through early Thursday morning, then shift east into the adjacent western atlantic Friday through Saturday.
Gulf stream hazards..North to northwest winds 15 to 20 knots with choppy seas up to 6 feet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday, november 27th.
45 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 19 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 281507 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1007 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

DISCUSSION

...Considerable High Cloudiness will Keep Temperatures Below Normal in Afternoon...

Currently...Advection southward of cooler drier air continues with an extensive overlying area of high cloudiness. This will make for a chilly day and limited temperature recovery. Looking at climate records, some spots across the north may approach cool maximum temperature records this aftn. (See below for details). Some minor adjustments are pending mainly for short term temps.

prev disc...

Today-Tonight...A mid level disturbance moves across east central Florida today as a 250mb jet streak moves offshore the southeast/mid Atlantic coast. Surface high pressure across the central CONUS moves southeastward today. Northwest to north surface flow will continue to advect a very dry airmass into east central Florida. Moist flow aloft will make for a gloomy, overcast day, however, the low level profile will be much too dry to support any precip. High temperatures will widely range the 60s this afternoon with areas across northern Lake, Volusia, Seminole only reaching the upper 50s.
The coldest air so far this season is forecast as skies clear from north to south overnight. The coldest temperatures will be felt across Lake and inland Volusia counties where values drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Mid 40s are forecast along the Volusia coast, stretching southwestward along the I-4 corridor and into Osceola county. Upper 40s to low 50s are forecast across Brevard, Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast counties. A north breeze around 10 mph could make temperatures feel colder, especially across northern Lake and northwest Volusia where wind chill values fall into the mid 30s.

Wed...The high pressure center over the SE U.S. will edge closer to the area weakening the pressure gradient a bit while maintaining a north breeze. After a chilly start, mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rebound into the low and mid 60s Orlando north and into the low 70s Okeechobee to Treasure coast.
Some scraps of marine stratocu should push onshore the coast south of the Cape as winds above the sfc begin to veer onshore.

Thu-Mon...The sfc high pressure is forecast to continue eastward and slide offshore the Carolina coast and over the western Atlantic Thu-Fri. Winds are forecast to veer East Thursday, and then Southeast Friday as we get into the return flow around the departing high. Gradual moistening will commence but remaining rain-free Thu and have lowered shower chances for Fri as upper ridging builds northward from Cuba and FL Straits. After one more chilly morning over the interior Thu in the low and mid 40s, a warming trend will begin. Max temps will reach the 70s areawide Thu and near 80/lower 80s Fri with mid 80s across the south building northward this weekend. With dewpoints increasing into the lower 70s, a temporary return to summer-like conditions is possible.

High pressure building over central Florida will focus the highest rain chances across northern FL this weekend, but there remain discrepancies in model output with ECM consistently showing the area solidly in the warm sector while the GFS shows a more southern trajectory for the upper disturbances riding around the upper high which keeps more cloudy/showery conds for EC FL.
Locations along and north of Orlando/Cape Canaveral will be best positioned to see some rain showers this weekend with 20-30 percent chances. Interestingly, both models show a weak frontal boundary pushing through the area Mon/Mon night which should bring a higher coverage of showers followed by a cool down.

MARINE
Issued at 1007 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Today-Tonight...Poor boating conditions today over Gulf Stream vicinity and offshore areas as a modest wind increase moves southward across the local waters, increasing to 15-20 kts offshore.
Seas of 5-6 ft across the Gulf Stream. Seas wl diminish to 4 ft in the Gulf Stream overnight. Have trimmed the caution statement to include the offshore waters from Flagler Beach to Sebastian Inlet and all of the Treasure Coast waters to account for Gulf Stream nearshore there.

Wed-Sat...High pressure center will push east across the deep South mid week then offshore the Carolina coast late week and weekend. As the sfc high approaches Wed, the north winds will decrease 10-12 knots then veer East on Thu as high pressure pushes seaward. As the old frontal boundary returns northward as a warm front on Fri, winds will veer Southeast and increase 10-15 knots.
On Sat, southerly flow around 10 knots with isolated to scattered showers. Seas 2-3 ft nearshore and 4 ft offshore Wed, subsiding below 4 feet Thu. Seas build Fri 4-5 feet offshore in a wind chop then subsiding below 5 feet Sat.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1007 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

High level clouds will traverse the state today while remaining VFR.
Northwest to north winds prevail though the period. Winds increase to 8-10 kts inland and 10-12 kts along the coast by this afternoon, diminishing to 4-6 kts overnight. Precip is not forecast.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 1007 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain in Minor Flood Stage through this weekend. Near Geneva above Lake Harney, the river will remain in Action Stage through this week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 344 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

A cool dry period with a north wind flow will continue through midweek. RH values will fall 35 to 45 percent over the interior today while holding above 50 percent along the coast from the Cape south. A small increase in min RH values is forecast for Wednesday. A warming trend will commence Thursday as wind flow veers onshore with above normal temperatures Friday into the weekend with a more southerly flow.

CLIMATE
Here is a listing of today's coolest maximum temperature records.
The cloud cover may help some locations near these records for high temps.

LOC DATE LO-MAX DAB 28-Nov 57 2018 LEE 28-Nov 57 2018 SFB 28-Nov 58 2018 MCO 28-Nov 50 1903 MLB 28-Nov 58 1992 VRB 28-Nov 61 1992 FPR 28-Nov 60 1938

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 60 45 62 49 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 62 45 66 48 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 65 50 69 55 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 67 52 72 57 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 60 40 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 61 42 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 61 45 66 49 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 67 53 72 58 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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