Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Hill, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:53PM Monday January 20, 2020 9:49 AM EST (14:49 UTC) Moonrise 3:26AMMoonset 2:19PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ570 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 20-60 Nm- 404 Am Est Mon Jan 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..North winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..North winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 8 to 10 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..North winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 10 to 13 feet. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 25 to 30 knots diminishing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 10 to 14 feet. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 8 to 11 feet. Chance of showers.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 8 to 10 feet. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 8 to 10 feet. Chance of showers.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 404 Am Est Mon Jan 20 2020
Synopsis..Brisk north winds behind this morning's strong cold front will produce increasingly hazardous boating conditions through the middle of the week. SWells will linger over the marine area into late week as onshore winds gradually decrease.
Gulf stream hazards..North winds 20 to 25 knots with seas building as to 7 to 9 feet through tonight. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday, january 20th. 41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 18 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 11 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Hill, FL
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location: 28.9, -80.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 201418 AFDMLB

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 917 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

DISCUSSION.

. Much Colder Weather Through Tuesday Night . . Very Hazardous Boating and Beach Conditions into Midweek .

Current . Lower clouds ascd with the earlier frontal zone will clear out of the Treasure Coast by late morning. Ongoing advection of much cooler swd will keep temps confined into the 60s over most of the area with some upper 50s likely remaining in Volusia and N Lake counties, and north of Metro Orlando today.

modified prev disc .

Today-tonight . Monitoring extent of upstream marine cloud deck for adt'l coastal SCU to develop today through tonight. Some of these clouds will brush the coast, perhaps even accompanied by a few ocean- effect type sprinkles along the barrier islands after sunset. Given trajectory of winds behind the front, there should be a fairly large (at last 2 category) temperature range for the coastal versus inland temperatures.

Min temps in the U30s NW of I-4, with L40s southward across the rest of the interior and far western areas of the coastal counties, increasing to the 50s for the immediate Space/Treasure Coast barrier islands. Wind chill readings will drop into the L-M30s NW of I-4 for about 2-5hr late tonight.

Tue-Wed . A high pressure over the mid Mississippi valley on Tue will slowly shift east while a low pressure will start to develop along a lingering front stretching from the Atlantic towards Cuba. This two systems will interact and create a strong pressure gradient off the coast of the Carolinas. This gradient will remain through the period. On Tue night and Wed, both GFS and Euro indicate the development of another very dynamic area of low pressure (gale) just northeast to the northern Bahamas.

Winds over land will remain from the NNW on Tue through Wed morning. This will allow for another round of cold air advection to move from the southeast U.S. into east central FL. Temps on Tue will only climb to the mid and upper 50s for Orange and northern Brevard while lower to mid 60s for Brevard southward to Martin county. The on Tue night, we will experience the coldest night so far this season. Temps are forecast to drop to the 30s west of I-95 while coastal areas will remain in the lower 40s. But these will combine with the northerly breeze of 5-10 mph to produce wind chill temperatures of lower 30s west of I-95 from Brevard to Volusia and interior while inland Volusia. These conditions will meet our local criteria for a Wind Chill Advisory, which might be necessary late Tue night into early Wed morning.

It is interesting to note no freezes have been recorded in the east central FL climate recording sites since Jan 19, 2018.

On Wed, the high pressure will be elongated over the eastern states and the low pressure northeast of the Bahamas and slowly retreating east. The local wind flow will then veer from the northeast, modifying the air, becoming more marine and temperatures will warm up. Highs on Wed are expected to reach the 60s with rain chances reaching the coastal counties. Then on Wed night, lows will drop to the 50s, with the exception of northern Lake where it could drop just below 50 and the immediate coastal communities of the Treasure Coast will remain in the lower 60s.

Thu-Sun . High pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic will dig to the south towards the FL peninsula. As a low pressure moves away to the northeast, the pressure gradient will finally relax and winds becoming easterlies. On Sat, an area of low pressure is being shown by the two main models developing over the mid-Atlantic states and lifting to the northeast along the northeast U.S. coast. A cold front will be pushed over the FL peninsula on Sat, returning NW winds to the area. Temps will start on Thu in the lower 70s, mid- upper 70s on Fri, low to mid 70s on Sat and upper 60s to lower 70s on Sun. Fri and Fri night could be times with higher chances for rain across most of east central FL ahead of the front. Loss on Thu night and Fri night will be in the 50s. Then on Sat night and after the front passage, temps will cool down to the upper 40s/lower 50s.

AVIATION. Low clouds over the FPR-SUA sites will break up and dissipated by late this morning. SKC to BKN250 for most areas, however aerodromes along the coastal corridor (esp MLB-SUA) will likely be dealing with some marine SCU later today-tonight with CIGs near BKN-OVC030-035 lurking just offshore.

MARINE. Today-tonight . Winds/seas within advisory criteria with rising sea state continuing through tonight.

In addition to hazardous boating conditions, the strong northerly winds will produce building surf (up to 6ft breakers) and a strong north to south flowing longshore current. A Beach Hazards Statement continues through early this evening.

Tue-Wed . As a high pressure builds over central U.S. and a gale develops to our east, a strong to near-gale northerly wind flow will develop over the central FL Atlantic waters, creating dangerous boating conditions. Seas of 7-9 ft on Tue will build to 9-14 ft on Wed. The WNWAVE model brings the high seas quickly and higher than 14 ft. For now, the seas were capped at 14 ft as up and down fluctuations will depend on the location and strength of the low. Wind and seas will then start to slowly subside on Wed evening.

Thu-Fri . On Thu, as the gale retreats to the east and away from FL, winds will decrease but seas will range 7-10 ft on Thu and 6-9 ft on Fri.

FIRE WEATHER. While RFW conditions are not anticipated, min RH values will reach the L-M40s over the interior over the next two afternoon, with U30s possible Lake and adjacent parts of western Volusia/Seminole/Orange and NW Osceola Cos. A north wind near 15 MPH is also expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 60 41 55 39 / 0 10 10 10 MCO 62 42 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 64 46 61 43 / 0 20 10 20 VRB 66 49 62 44 / 0 20 10 20 LEE 60 38 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 61 41 57 37 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 61 43 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 66 50 63 43 / 0 20 10 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.



JP/CL/DKW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 36 mi50 min 52°F 71°F1023.1 hPa (+1.8)
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 39 mi50 min 71°F3 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 45 mi30 min NNW 16 G 21 61°F 73°F1021.5 hPa49°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 56 mi65 min NW 5.1 44°F 1024 hPa31°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL12 mi63 minNW 810.00 miFair46°F32°F57%1022.7 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL22 mi57 minNW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds46°F32°F58%1022.8 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL22 mi57 minNNW 1110.00 miFair48°F32°F54%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEVB

Wind History from EVB (wind in knots)
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W10W10W5W5W5N11----------------NW6NW6NW8
1 day agoSE13SE13
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S8S5S5S7S6----------------SW3SW5SW5
2 days agoNE15
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Tide / Current Tables for Ponce De Leon Inlet South, Florida (sub)
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Ponce Inlet, Halifax River, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.