Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Hill, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Dry and gusty. There's sufficient moisture streaming onshore to support a healthy daytime cu field, and maybe even a hint of light showers (a few 20 dbZ pixels)
showing up over the Treasure Coast Atlantic waters on KMLB radar, but not enough to warrant mention in the forecast as it's unlikely anything will survive through the subsidence along the coast from the sea breeze circulation, which is very apparent from the clear skies just offshore on GOES satellite imagery. Breezy and gusty conditions are developing this afternoon behind the diffuse east coast sea breeze as it moves inland. As we lose daytime heating, winds diminish becoming light overnight. Daytime temperatures around normal, and overnight lows a bit above normal from onshore flow.

The Weekend...Dry, gusty, and maybe a bit windy. The ridge axis of stout surface high pressure off the Atlantic seaboard will continue to extend across Central-North Florida. A frontal boundary across the CONUS stalls along the northern flank of the high, tightening the pressure gradient across Florida a bit more.
LAMP guidance is going gang busters calling for gusts up to 30 mph, especially along the southern coast, but this exceeds the HRRR 90th percentile so went with a compromise of gusts near HRRR 75th percentile in the forecast at around 20-25 mph. Although this increasing flow in the marine layer would typical whip up some onshore moving showers, it's so dry (PWATs less than the climatological 25th percentile) that entrainment is going to kill anything besides some cloud cover, and rain chances remain out of the forecast. These dry conditions combined with the increasing winds will continue sensitive fire weather conditions, possibly becoming critical across the interior Saturday afternoon. Onshore flow keeps daytime temperatures around normal, and overnight lows a bit above normal.

Monday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Surface high pressure across the western Atlantic broadens as a cold front slides across the southeast U.S. Ridging holds in place aloft, although gradually flattening. More agreement now exists within global deterministic models, keeping dry conditions across east central Florida on Tuesday. Therefore, no mentionable PoPs exist within the midterm forecast. A warming trend continues with a few areas of low 90s sprinkled across the interior on Monday become more widespread across the interior Tuesday. Mid to upper 80s are forecast in vicinity of I-95 each day while low 80s hang on along the immediate coast. Low temperatures remain steady, mostly ranging the low to mid 60s.

Wednesday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) An active sea breeze pattern is forecast mid to late next week, but there is wide variability in precip output among model runs. Went with a blend of NBM and MOS guidance in the extended period which results in a silent PoP (10%) across much of the area Wednesday and Thursday. Warmer than normal temperatures continue each afternoon with highs in the low 90s across the interior and mid to upper 80s across the coastal counties. Morning temperatures become mild, mostly in the mid to upper 60s.

MARINE
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Rest of Today-Saturday...A bit breezy and choppy as the pressure gradient across the local Atlantic waters tightens a little more in response to a frontal boundary over the CONUS laying up along side high pressure extending from the Atlantic seaboard across Florida. Periods of poor boating conditions in the Gulf Stream and nearshore the Treasure Coast waters are expected as easterly winds increase to 15-20 kts. Across the rest of the waters, easterly winds generally 10-15 kts, but could pick up to around 20 kts right along the coast in the afternoon and evening once the sea breeze develops. Seas building to 3-5 ft. Mostly dry conditions, but a brief sprinkle can't be ruled out.

Sunday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Southeast winds diminish to 10-15 kts Sunday and into Monday, further falling near 10 kts on Tuesday as the center of weakening high pressure slowly builds towards Florida. Seas of 4-5 ft gradually subside, becoming widely 3 ft by Tuesday. No precip is forecast.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Mainly VFR is forecast with high pressure (~1030mb) over the W Atlantic. ESE winds at 12-18kts with gusts to 18-25kts are expected into this PM and into the late AM SAT. Light ESE/VRB winds at 4-8kts are forecast overnight at the inland TAFs and KDAB with ESE winds at around 10kts forecast at the coastal TAFs. There's the potential (20- 30%) for MVFR CIGs at times at the coastal TAFs into SAT AM.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Sensitive to possibly critical fire weather conditions develop each afternoon through at least mid next week. High pressure extending over Florida will keep moisture well below normal, though onshore flow will provide some offset, resulting in min RHs of 35-45 pct across the interior. The sea breeze pattern will remain active, producing gusty conditions from the late morning through the early evening each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 63 80 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 63 84 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 68 80 68 81 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 66 80 66 82 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 63 86 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 62 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 64 84 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 66 80 66 82 / 10 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.