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AMZ570 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 20-60 Nm- 333 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Today..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 knots, becoming south 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. Showers likely in the evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet. A slight chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 333 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis..Southeast winds will continue through tonight as high pressure moves farther offshore. Winds and seas will then increase Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, as will chances for showers and lightning storms, especially by Sunday evening. Winds and seas will remain elevated early next week as a stout area of high pressure moves in behind the front.
Gulf stream hazards..None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday, december 9th.
48 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 34 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 090959 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 459 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY

DISCUSSION

Today...Surface high pressure off the eastern seaboard will drift further offshore as a cold front moves toward the lower MS Valley by late afternoon. Low level SE winds to H9 will increase to ~15KT with increasing PWATs to 1.5 to 1.6 inches and deepening low level moisture. Guidance PoPs continue around 20 percent with a slight chance for showers mainly near the Treasure Coast this morning and then spreading toward the northern interior and Volusia coast into this afternoon. Current patches of sprinkles in SW flow aloft should wane later this morning as mid level impulses move NE toward across the Atlantic this afternoon. High temps will range from the upper 70s along the coast to around 80 across the interior. A northeast swell will contribute to a moderate rip current risk at the Atlantic beaches.

Tonight...SE low level winds will become SSE late tonight with isolated showers across the Atlantic moving onshore along the coastal areas at times through the night. Will carry a slight chance (20%) for showers close to the coast and dry conditions for the interior. Lows temps will range from the mid 60s interior to upper 60s along the coast.

Sunday-Tuesday... Low pressure will move across the eastern CONUS and drag a cold front across the state of Florida Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast through Sunday ahead of a line of strong to marginally severe storms that are expected to move into central Florida by Sunday evening. Rain chances increase from north to south Sunday evening into early Monday morning with PoPs ~ 40-70% to the north of a line that stretches from Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne and 30-50% to the south. Guidance signals that the front will cross the local Atlantic waters and the Treasure Coast by early/mid morning Monday. A 40kt southwesterly LLJ, 40-50kts 0-6km shear, -11C 500mb temps, and 500-1,000 J/kg MUCAPE will support isolated strong to marginally severe storms north of Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne. The main hazards will be damaging wind gusts up to 50- 60mph, small hail, heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. A secondary threat for a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
Expect wind gusts up to 20-25mph from the south even outside of showers/storms.

Flow veers north behind the front into Monday with drier air filtering in Monday (PWATS less than 0.50"). High pressure will build to the north across the Midsouth and the Carolinas through midweek. PWATs remain below 1" with Mid RH 20% or lower through Tuesday. Expect dry conditions with mostly sunny skies Monday becoming mostly cloudy Tuesday. Wind gusts to 20-25mph are forecast from the north Monday and northeast Tuesday. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the low to mid 80s Sunday, low 60s to low 70s Monday, and upper 60s to low 70s Monday. Low temperatures will drop into the mid 40s to low 50s to the north of Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee and the mid 50s to low 60s to the south.

Wednesday-Friday... Mid/upper level ridge builds over the Deep South and eastern CONUS through late week. Deterministic models (ECMWF/GFS/CMC) suggest three different solutions for mid-to-late week. However, they do agree though that a frontal boundary will remain stalled across southern Florida with moisture increasing from the south Wednesday (PWATs ~1.1-1.5") through Friday (PWATs ~1.4- 2"). With onshore flow in place, isolated to scattered showers are forecast each day, especially in the afternoon/evening with the greatest chance on Thursday (PoPs ~20-50%). The GFS is the most robust which shows low pressure developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico approaching Florida and lifting the aforementioned front north across central Florida Thursday into Friday. The ECMWF and CMC keep the trough/low less organized (if at all) which would result in much lower rain chances. Mid-to-late week looks quite breezy with gusts to 25-30mph from the east-northeast forecast. Seas will become very hazardous through late week. Highs in the low to mid 70s with lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

MARINE
Issued at 459 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Today...SE winds will range from 10-15 knots across the nrn marine zones to 15-20 knots south of Sebastian Inlet. Seas around 3 ft for the Volusia nearshore waters to 4-5 ft across the south. Small craft should exercise caution south of Sebastian Inlet.

Tonight...SE winds 10-15 knots near the coast and up to 15-20 knots offshore where small craft should exercise caution. Seas 3-4 ft near shore and up to 5 ft offshore. Isolated showers with a slight chance for a lightning storm offshore north of Sebastian Inlet.

Sunday-Wednesday... A cold front will sag across the waters Sunday into Monday which will bring scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms Sunday into early Monday. Strong to marginally severe storms are forecast with wind gusts to 50-60mph, small hail, heavy rainfall, and cloud to water lightning strikes. Southerly winds Sunday around 15-22kts veer north Monday at 20-25kts, east- northeast Tuesday/Wednesday at 18-25kts. Seas build to 3-4ft with up to 5 ft in the offshore (20-60nm) waters, before increasing to 4-6ft with up to 7-8ft in the Gulf Stream Monday/Tuesday, and up to 8-9f.
t Wednesday. Dry Monday/Tuesday with scattered showers and isolated lighting storms Wednesday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 459 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Mid level VFR CIGS above 12kft this morning will lower to 4-7kft range today at times. Isold -SHRA may affect KSUA-KVRB corridor this morning with lower shower chances (10-20 percent) for nrn terminals this afternoon. SE winds will increase to 9-13 knots for ECFL terminals with diurnal mixing with SE winds 5-7 kts tonight aft 00z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 78 64 79 49 / 20 10 30 60 MCO 80 65 81 51 / 20 10 30 50 MLB 79 68 82 55 / 20 20 20 40 VRB 79 68 83 58 / 20 20 30 30 LEE 79 64 79 48 / 10 0 50 60 SFB 80 64 82 51 / 20 0 30 50 ORL 80 65 81 53 / 20 0 30 50 FPR 80 67 83 58 / 20 20 30 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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