Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 11:29 AM   Moonset 12:47 AM

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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 300 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening, then showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the morning. Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 3 feet at 6 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 6 seconds and west 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 6 seconds and west 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Saturday night - Southwest winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 300 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis - SEveral more storm clusters are expected to move across the gulf waters with the next round possibly occurring this evening, though there remains uncertainty with how much of this activity will hold together. However, a cold front will gradually push southward across the region with scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms spreading from north to south throughout the day. Some of this activity to produce strong winds, waterspouts, lightning, and torrential downpours. In addition, small craft exercise cautionary levels will be possible on Wednesday outside of Thunderstorms as gusty southwest winds will be in place throughout the day. Winds then decrease late week as weak high pressure builds in with decreasing rain chances, though another cold front will arrive by next weekend with increasing precipitation chances once again.

FXUS62 KTBW 141858 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 258 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A shortwave trough continues to advance eastward across the Mississippi Valley today with the associated trailing cold front stretching southward into the Gulf of Mexico. A series of impulses embedded along the southern periphery of the trough continue to bring clusters of storms from the Gulf of Mexico across the Florida peninsula with a line of storms that moved through earlier and brought reports of severe wind gusts is now moving off the Atlantic coast as well as another cluster of storms currently in the east-central Gulf. Despite recent satellite imagery showing an organized cloud shield with cloud tops as cold as around -70C, latest CAMs generally show a weakening trend with this feature as it approaches the west central FL coast by this evening but a brief severe risk may exist if this activity can hold together enough.

The next and more likely severe risk will occur on Wednesday as the trough shifts east and pushes a southward sagging cold front into central Florida where this frontal boundary will eventually stall.
In addition to the frontal boundary, strong westerly winds aloft of 80+ kts at 300mb will move across the area and this will increase deep layer shear with 0-6 km bulk shear values around 35-45 kts.
This combined with good CAPE values as high as 3000 J/kg and 500mb temps around -10C will support scattered to numerous convection across the region with potential for damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes and/or waterspouts. In addition to the severe risk, WPC has placed much of the region in a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall and while previous 30 day rainfall observations compared to percent of normal are generally in the lowest 10th-25th percentile (or even less in isolated areas), the westerly flow aloft should align well with the west-to-east oriented frontal boundary to possibly support training of storms. Regardless, this will be an opportunity for very needed rain across much of the area, especially areas that haven't receive too much precipitation in recent days but we be monitoring for any training/flooding potential, which would be rather localized if anything does occur at all.

Transient ridging moves across the area by Thursday and this will bring a decrease to rain chances with PoPs less than 15% from Tampa Bay northward, though isolated to scattered storms will be possible for southern portions of the forecast area where deeper moisture will exist and interacts with the lingering frontal boundary. This frontal boundary then lifts north as a warm front by Friday as low pressure system in the central US shifts across the OH valley and drives the next cold front towards the area for the upcoming weekend. As a result, PoPs will be on the increase once again over the weekend as models show this frontal boundary approaching late Saturday into Sunday. Despite a possible frontal passage by early next week, a model consensus of PoPs still supports precipitation chances into the end of the forecast period as troughing aloft may linger over the area, though it appears overall precipitation coverage should still be on a decreasing trend into early week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Mainly VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of the day as the line of storms that moved through the region earlier has moved east of the area, though occasional MVFR patchy CIGs will be possible at times. In addition, another round of thunderstorms offshore in the Gulf may approach the area by this evening with additional restrictions possible, but forecast confidence is not high in whether this holds together. Otherwise, a cold front will slowly push southward across the area overnight into Wednesday and this feature with scattered/numerous showers and storms developing once again so flight conditions are expected to deteriorate towards the end of the period.

MARINE
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Several more storm clusters are expected to move across the Gulf waters with the next round possibly occurring this evening, though there remains uncertainty with how much of this activity will hold together. However, a cold front will gradually push southward across the region with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms spreading from north to south throughout the day.
Some of this activity to produce strong winds, waterspouts, lightning, and torrential downpours. In addition, small craft exercise cautionary levels will be possible on Wednesday outside of thunderstorms as gusty southwest winds will be in place throughout the day. Winds then decrease late week as weak high pressure builds in with decreasing rain chances, though another cold front will arrive by next weekend with increasing precipitation chances once again.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Storm clusters will continue to move across the area ahead of a cold front with the next cluster possibly approaching the area this evening. However, better rain chances area-wide will occur on Wednesday as a cold front gradually pushes southward across the region with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as well as needed rainfall to many areas. Drier weather then returns late week as weak high pressure builds in with minimum RH values dropping into the upper 30 percent range for interior areas, though red flag conditions are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 86 76 88 / 50 90 20 10 FMY 79 91 77 91 / 10 50 40 40 GIF 74 88 72 92 / 40 70 20 10 SRQ 77 88 76 89 / 40 70 40 10 BKV 71 87 67 90 / 60 80 10 10 SPG 79 85 78 87 / 50 90 30 10

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Twin Rivers Marina
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Tue -- 01:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:37 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:10 AM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:04 PM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:57 PM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Twin Rivers Marina, Crystal River, Florida, Tide feet

Ozello
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Tue -- 01:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:27 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:26 AM EDT     0.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:36 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ozello, St. Martin's River, Florida, Tide feet

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