Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Venice, LA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 7:33PM Saturday August 24, 2019 6:31 AM CDT (11:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:34AMMoonset 2:31PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ552 Expires:201908242130;;126323 Fzus54 Klix 240901 Cwflix Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service New Orleans La 401 Am Cdt Sat Aug 24 2019 Pascagoula To Atchafalaya River Out To 60 Mile Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest Ten Percent Of The Waves. Gmz550-552-242130- Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 401 Am Cdt Sat Aug 24 2019
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 401 Am Cdt Sat Aug 24 2019
Synopsis.. The weather pattern remains unsettled this weekend and into early next week with several waves of showers/storms possible. Weak high pressure builds in by mid-week, lowering widespread heavy rain chances.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Venice, LA
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location: 28.94, -89.4     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 240915
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
415 am cdt Sat aug 24 2019

Discussion
The overall synoptic pattern continues to be largely dominated by
persistent southerly moist gulf return flow in the low to mid-
levels, bringing an enhancement of spotty shower and storm
chances. As of this morning, short-range guidance shows a bit of a
change from yesterday, as slightly drier air continues to work in
the low to mid-levels across SE la and parts of southern ms. This
appears plausible given current mesoanalysis data, with a tongue
of lower pw's stretching north into far SE la. Nam3km and hrrr
guidance valid for 15z today does bring pw's down below the 2 inch
mark, which may help keep rain chances slightly lower east of
i-55. Blended guidance hints at this, and have kept slightly
lower pop's in this region today. However, the main focus in the
short-range will continue to be a weak low to mid-level low
centered in the NW gomex. Closely investigating this feature
reveals a warm-core aloft, mean this mid-level low is barotropic.

However, 200-850mb shear is showing values of around 20-25 knots
from the NW which means conditions remain unfavorable for any type
of fast development, and will remain in place through the
weekend. The main impacts from this weak system will be bands of
heavy rainfall, likely reaching western zones and coastal zones
west of the ms delta. Regardless of any subtle mid-level dry air
in place, heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding may
be possible today, mainly for areas south of i-10 in SE la and
west of new orleans where the wpc keeps a slight risk for
excessive rainfall. We clear out overnight, but cam blended
guidance does suggest a band of shower storms propagating along a
north to northeastward surging outflow boundary around coastal
areas early Sunday morning. By the daytime on Sunday, any dry-air
intrusion will quickly erode, bringing back widespread 2.2-2.4
inch pw's. The wpc maintains a mrgl risk for excessive rainfall on
Sunday, which could be upgraded to slgt in later outlooks. This
barotropic weak system eventually drifts east, generally along
coastal areas Sunday through Monday, with a continued risk for
excessive rainfall flash flooding into early next week. If this
system maintains tropical characteristics, prominent tropical
banding may develop in some locations which could largely lead to
much heavier rainfall and flooding concerns. However, pinpointing
exact locations is difficult at this time, and will continue to
message flash flooding concerns for Sunday and into Monday
generally across the entire area, with locally enhanced regions of
rainfall possible. Flash flood watches at this time will be later
determined if necessary, but will continue to keep a close eye on
this system should any highlights become needed.

By Tuesday through next week, the aforementioned mid-level low
eventually becomes stretched absorbed by a weak trough swinging
across the deep south and presses east, which brings rain chances
back to your typical afternoon spotty showers storms in the
upstream convergent portion of the trough. Temperatures warm
slightly back up to the lower 90's for inland locations with heat
indicies back in the lower mid 100's. Long-range guidance is
holding tight on the idea of a late-week frontal passage, which
will help bump the heat down a tad with slightly drier air.

Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60's may be not out of the
question along and north of i-10 early Saturday and Sunday morning
of next week, but will advertise low confidence being this far
out with the extent of the cooler drier air. A break in the
summertime heat i'm sure will be very welcomed. Klg

Marine
We remain in an active pattern this weekend and into early next
thanks to a weak low mid-level tropical low in the NW gomex.

Expect spotty shower storm chances today, with better coverage
likely west of the ms delta. Rain storm coverage increases Sunday
into Monday before returning back to a nearly typical summertime
pattern by the middle of next week. Main threats with any
thunderstorm the next few days will be gusty outflow downdraft
winds in excess of 30 to 35 knots and dangerous lightning, with a
few waterspouts possible at any time. Long-range guidance does
support the potential for a frontal boundary to pass late next
week, but confidence on specific details are low at this time. Klg

Aviation
MostlyVFR conditions are expected to prevail through the day into
tonight. The main exception will be during periods of scattered
shra tsra when briefly lower MVFR ifr conditions may occur. The most
likely timing for this will during the afternoon for most taf
airports, however khum will likely have shra tsra around this
morning and again late tonight early Sunday morning. 22 td

Decision support
Dss code: yellow.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 88 72 86 71 60 30 80 40
btr 88 74 86 74 70 20 80 50
asd 90 73 88 73 50 10 70 50
msy 89 77 87 76 60 20 80 50
gpt 90 74 87 74 30 10 60 60
pql 91 73 90 73 40 20 50 50

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's East, SW Pass, LA 1 mi44 min S 1 G 1.9
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 3 mi32 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9
PILL1 18 mi50 min E 2.9 G 2.9 81°F 87°F1015.5 hPa
KMDJ 29 mi17 min S 2.9 82°F 77°F
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 33 mi60 min S 4.1 G 6 83°F 2 ft1016.1 hPa74°F
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 37 mi50 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 86°F
KXPY 44 mi17 min S 2.9 82°F 81°F

Wind History for Pilots Station East, SW Pass, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boothville, LA27 mi41 minno data10.00 miFair80°F75°F87%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBVE

Wind History from BVE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmW10
G16
CalmE4E3SW53Calm----------------------------
1 day agoE3E4E4E43NE4E74E5E5E6SE4S7S7S7--------E3--SW4--Calm
2 days agoSE3----S4S33SE5NE5E53CalmCalmSE3E3SE3----SE4--------CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Pilot Station, Southwest Pass, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Joseph Bayou, Mississippi River, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.