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GMZ552 Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Nm- 940 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Overnight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Friday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Sunday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Monday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Tuesday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 940 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure is pushing farther to the east and by Friday night will push off the coast into the atlantic. At the same time a series of surface lows will develop over the plains and push northeast through the weekend. Winds have already transitioned to southeast and will remain out of the southwest through Sunday. The pressure gradient will tighten with moderate to strong winds at times lasting through the weekend.

FXUS64 KLIX 252337 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 637 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A warm day across the region has evolved. All locations except along the immediate coast (where SSTs are lower) have warmed into the 80s. The upper levels are currently in transition from a northwest flow to a more southwesterly flow as the large scale trough with embedded shortwaves shift a bit closer to our region.
With the stronger impulses, the upper ridge will suppress over the Gulf. Although this feature gets suppressed, heights will continue to rise across the region and once again another warm/warmer day anticipated for Friday.

Outside of warm weather, the only other concern would be some shallow fog. The best potential will be over the MS Gulf Coast and SW Mississippi where the winds may drop enough to support patchy fog, especially in the fog favored locations. This should dissipate shortly after sunrise Friday. (Frye)

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Going into the upcoming weekend, active southwesterly flow will be over top the region. Upstream, a front will have stalled over the central planes as the orientation of the front will be parallel to the mid/upper flow. Breezy southerly winds will help moisture advect into the region. Although no real lift/support across the region outside of some very modest WAA/coastal convergence a few light showers may develop in the deep rich low level warm/moist advection. Globals are slightly pinging this potential, however, for now we will place silent 10 POPs this weekend outside of perhaps some mentionable POPs out towards Wilkinson Co., MS on Sunday as the front tries to move closer to the region.

Going into the new workweek, it would appear globals want to bring the front a bit closer. That will help with increasing POPs with a bit better QPF signal. However, the upper flow quickly begins to transition the the wake of a series of upper level impulses to a progressive flow. So, as the front tries to work its way through the region, the upper levels will but the breaks on and perhaps even change the orientation to a more west to east direction.
Think the front may be just close enough to keep some POPs in the forecast early to midweek next week, but overall confidence is a bit on the low side with some differences amongst the globals.
(Frye)

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions at forecast issuance, and expect that to remain the case at most terminals through the forecast period. Current cumulus clouds should disspate quickly after sunset. Some potential for fog toward sunrise, but probabilities are generally lower than they've been the last couple night, and there hasn't been much fog either of the last 2 mornings. Most likely candidate for IFR or lower conditions would be KMCB. Even there, NBM probabilities for less than 3SM are only around 20 percent. Any low conditions that do develop will improve quickly prior to 15z, when the cumulus field should begin to redevelop. Southeasterly winds may become a bit more of a factor toward midday tomorrow with sustained winds near 15 knots. That would allow for gusts into the lower 20s.

MARINE
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Southeasterly inds start to increase on Friday and especially through the upcoming weekend. High pressure will continue to slide east and should push off the Atlantic coast tomorrow while multiple surface lows develop and move northeast through the Plains and towards the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes into the start of the new workweek. This will tighten the pressure gradient increasing winds and seas across our local waters. Headlines are expected through the weekend possibly as early as late Friday. (CAB/Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 60 84 65 83 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 65 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 64 84 68 83 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 67 84 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 65 80 68 81 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 62 82 65 82 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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