Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Quintana, TX

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

We'll start off the morning of Easter Sunday with an upper level trough axis right over the Texas Panhandle. As it continues to track northeastward, it will push a frontal boundary towards Southeast Texas...but the northward part of that trajectory will keep the front from pushing all the way through. This is because the surface low associated with this will move northeastward as well from the Red River up towards the Great Lakes. Chances for showers and storms still increase as the front moves into the area, but we lose out on most of our shear (40-45 kt LLJ goes bye-bye) due to the pressure gradient relaxing as the surface low drifts further away. This is important to note because we'll have the other three ingredients (moisture, lift, and instability) in play. That's not to say that our chances of strong to severe storms are completely gone, but the chances of that are on the low side. As a result, SPC only has a marginal risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) for areas generally east of a College Station to Katy line. Either way, if you're planning on being out and about on Easter Sunday, be sure to keep an eye on the sky...and plan your footwear accordingly for any egg hunts on wet grass.

In spite of the rain chances on Easter Sunday, expect high temperatures mainly in the mid 80s plus or minus a couple of degrees. Temperatures on Sunday night will be dependent on where the front stalls...north of the front expect lows in the low 60s (maybe some upper 50s) and south of the front expect lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. The front is still anticipated to stall out and become diffuse somewhere over Southeast Texas, but model guidance is still unsure on exactly where the front will stall. It could stall over the Brazos Valley or right along the coast or anywhere in-between.
Wherever it stalls, it'll remain there through Monday before completely washing out by Tuesday as persistent onshore flow returns. The synoptic flow for most of the week is westerly to southwesterly, which leaves us in line to receive multiple shortwave impulses leading to essentially daily chances for rainfall. The most notable timeframes are late Tuesday into Wednesday and towards the end of the work week as another frontal boundary looks to approach the area.

Temperatures will generally be in the upper 60s to low 70s overnight outside of Sunday night. Daytime temperatures have a little bit more of variance by a few degrees. Essentially, the days with higher rain chances we'll have high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. On days with lower rain chances, we'll have high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
This will definitely be beneficial rainfall though
did you know that the City of Houston hasn't had measurable rainfall since April 5th? Around two weeks straight of no rainfall?! Yep...we need it! On average, we should be around 14" of rainfall by the end of April and we're currently at 10.37", so this active pattern should help us catch back up near to where we should be.

Batiste

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

With the exception of some sites closest to the coast, MVFR ceilings continue to scatter out. With mixing, gusty south winds 15-25kt will be the primary aviation issue for the remainder of the day. This evening and overnight, expect 1000-2500ft ceilings to fill back in from south to north. Surface winds speeds, though a bit lower than the day, will remain up overnight. Think speeds will remain up enough to preclude the mention of llvl wind shear, but it should be noted there could be some bumpy conditions with some prevailing southerly 30-45kt winds in the low levels of the atmosphere. Saturday mid morning onward, am again looking for erosion of MVFR ceilings (except maybe at the coast) with wind speeds again increasing and becoming gusty. 47

MARINE
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

A long fetch of southerly to southeasterly winds will persist throughout the weekend leading periods of elevated winds and seas.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through at least Sunday morning for the bays and Gulf waters. Mariners can expect wave heights to peak at 7-9 ft Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning before seas go on a gradual decreasing trend into early next week.
This prolonged period of elevated onshore flow will also increase the rip current risk and lead to water levels in and around the bays during high tide to top out near 3.0 ft above MLLW.
Shower/storm chances start up on Sunday as a frontal boundary approaches and stalls out inland. Rain chances persist throughout most of next week as a multiple disturbances pass through the area.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 69 86 69 83 / 0 20 10 80 Houston (IAH) 71 85 72 86 / 0 10 10 70 Galveston (GLS) 73 81 73 81 / 0 10 0 40

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375.