Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Quintana, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 5:25PM Monday December 9, 2019 7:22 AM CST (13:22 UTC) Moonrise 3:51PMMoonset 4:27AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ355 Expires:201912092215;;081347 Fzus54 Khgx 090930 Cwfhgx Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx 330 Am Cst Mon Dec 9 2019 Upper Texas Coastal Waters From High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves. Gmz350-355-092215- Coastal Waters From Freeport To Matagorda Ship Channel Tx Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Tx Out 20 Nm- 330 Am Cst Mon Dec 9 2019
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of drizzle in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers late.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers early in the evening, then showers in the late evening and overnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tuesday..North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming 20 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 7 feet in the afternoon. Showers until late afternoon, then a chance of showers and a slight chance of drizzle late in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds 20 to 30 knots becoming 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 7 feet. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of drizzle, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 330 Am Cst Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Onshore flow will continue ahead, though veering more southwesterly, ahead of a cold front. The front should move across the waters Tuesday morning bringing rain showers and an outside shot at an isolated lightning strike. SEa fog is possible tonight until the cold front moves through and ends the fog threat. Winds and seas will reach advisory criteria in the wake of the front from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning, with gusts approaching gale force.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quintana, TX
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location: 28.95, -95.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 091119 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 519 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance].

Outside of the Houston/Galveston area, widespread IFR/MVFR conditions, and with MVFR SCT decks there, even the last remaining VFR obs should slip to MVFR in the next few hours. Expect only very slow improvement through the morning, allowing for a few barely VFR hours across Southeast Texas until an incoming front causes degradation in flight conditions again.

Deeper into the afternoon, streamer showers will start to become more common near the coast, with the front sparking even greater shower chances overnight. There's an outside shot for a stray lightning strike, but right now it looks like thunder is not likely.

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 352 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019/.

SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night].

A thick, broken veil of thick cirrus is making satellite observation of tonight's low stratus and fog difficult tonight. Simultaneously, the cirrus (and some stronger winds) are likely disrupting the development of fog, and will favor stratus through the overnight hours. Surface obs show a bit of fog here and there, but most are seeing low cloud heights - as low as 800 feet in spots, and closer to 2000 feet in others. This should likely continue through the night, with the 2000 foot cloud decks likely to drift downwards to meet the spots with lower cloud bases.

Today, look for southwest winds to continue to pump Gulf moisture into the area with dewpoints rising up into the upper 60s to nearly 70 degrees today and tonight. In the meantime, we'll have to look out west for our next big weather feature.

Water vapor reveals two upper troughs making their way through/out of the West. An upper trough dropping off the Rockies into the Northern Plains is trailing an upper low in the southern jet stream currently centered near Las Vegas. The northern trough will support lee cyclogenesis over the Plains, which will then propagate towards the Great Lakes, with a cold front dropping all the way into West Texas. While the northern trough and the location of the surface low will surely be too far away to help spur unsettled weather, the southern trough will be swooping in just in time to result in vigorous cyclonic vorticity advecting over the area, and we may yet catch some benefit from a departing jet streak.

Timing the front is still a bit tricky, but the general idea of a Monday night frontal passage is still on track. We'll see a bit of instability present this afternoon, but I generally expect it to be wasted given (west-)southwest flow through the column. We may see some streamer showers/drizzle crop up over the nearshore waters and at the coast, but that should be about it.

Rain chances should ramp up significantly overnight as the front moves into the region. An isolated rumble of thunder isn't out of the question, but I left it out of the forecast as the timing is pretty poor, and the environment doesn't really support the maintenance of instability through the night. Though confidence in a broad area of showers is high, precipitable water is not progged to be terribly high - generally under 1.5 inches. Given the time of year, this does bring us into the ballpark of the 90th percentile, but that and an awkward inflow fetch should limit rainfall totals. PQPF shows that exceeding a tenth of an inch is probably a slam dunk, and getting at least a quarter inch is very likely for all but our westernmost areas. But we see a strong drop-off in probability of exceeding half an inch, and exceeding an inch is very unlikely.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday].

Wednesday morning is likely the coldest morning of this week and the upcoming weekend with temperatures near freezing across parts of our far northern counties where winds will be the lightest and clouds will be at a minimum. Elsewhere where there will be a little more wind and clouds, lows should range from the mid/upper 30s inland to the low/mid 40s at the coast. After high temperatures remain in the 50s for both Wednesday and Thursday, a warmup is in store for the area with Friday's highs in the low/mid 60s and Saturday through Monday's highs in the upper 60s/mid 70s. The area's next best chance of rain in this long term forecast period looks like it might come around a week from today (Mondayish) when another cold front moves through the area. 42

MARINE.

Sea fog will gradually become an increasing concern as dewpoints slowly rise towards water temps in the shallower Gulf and nearshore waters. Mitigating the concern somewhat is the expectation for generally southwesterly winds, which is not an ideal fetch for sea fog. For now, conditions look pretty good on webcams along shore.

Potential will continue into the day, but will be a precarious balance of dewpoints, water temps, wind fetch, and rains. For what it's worth, more guidance shows fog emerging late this afternoon and this evening as daytime mixing ends and winds near the coast back slightly . and perhaps just enough for fog to snap into the picture. This may not be a great recipe for dense sea fog to form, but I'd expect at least some fog development today/tonight, with a short window of dense fog before the front arrives to end the threat.

Though the front will put an end to any sea fog threat, it will also introduce stronger winds and seas. Onshore flow today will be very near the SCEC threshold in the offshore waters. And though the forecast is not quite enough to require that, we'll look for strong northerly winds to develop on Tuesday behind the front. The need for a small craft advisory looks nearly certain at this range, and came close to issuing a gale watch for the offshore waters Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Definitely stay tuned to the forecast for this post-frontal position for the latest on winds behind the cold front.

Luchs

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

College Station (CLL) 81 44 46 34 57 / 0 80 80 10 10 Houston (IAH) 81 52 54 39 57 / 10 90 90 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 75 60 62 45 57 / 10 80 90 30 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

TX . None. GM . None.



SHORT TERM . Luchs LONG TERM . 42 AVIATION . Luchs MARINE . Luchs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 1 mi53 min S 7 G 8.9 68°F 66°F
FPST2 1 mi53 min S 9.9 G 11 68°F 67°F1011.1 hPa
LUIT2 13 mi53 min S 7 G 9.9 68°F 65°F1012.5 hPa
SGNT2 20 mi53 min S 5.1 G 6 68°F 65°F1011.1 hPa
GRRT2 33 mi53 min SSW 8 G 12 68°F 65°F1011 hPa
EMAT2 36 mi53 min SSE 5.1 G 6 67°F 66°F1010.8 hPa
GTOT2 37 mi53 min SSW 6 G 8.9 69°F 65°F1011.3 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 42 mi53 min SSW 8.9 G 11
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 42 mi53 min SSW 9.9 G 14
KXIH 45 mi28 min S 9.9 70°F 68°F
KBQX 47 mi28 min SSW 9.9 72°F 70°F

Wind History for USCG Freeport, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Angleton / Lake Jackson, Brazoria County Airport, TX14 mi30 minSSW 77.00 miFair69°F66°F93%1011.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLBX

Wind History from LBX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3SE6S9S12S13S14S12S14S9S5S4S6S7S7S8S6S8S8S9S7S12S8S7
1 day agoN7N8NE10NE84N7NE8NE7E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW4NW6NW8NW8NW10NW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Freeport Harbor, Texas
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Freeport Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:27 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:01 AM CST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 02:51 PM CST     1.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:50 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:23 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:10 PM CST     1.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:52 PM CST     1.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.10.90.70.30-0.2-0.3-0.2-00.20.50.81.11.31.41.31.21.111.11.11.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Christmas Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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