Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 5:27PM Saturday December 7, 2019 7:34 AM CST (13:34 UTC) Moonrise 2:47PMMoonset 2:41AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 307 Am Cst Sat Dec 7 2019
Today..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Tonight..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday night..South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers late in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy after midnight. A chance of showers.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy becoming rough in the afternoon. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 307 Am Cst Sat Dec 7 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Moderate and occasionally gusty offshore winds will diminish and veer to northeasterly through the day. Winds should continue veering through the night, and light onshore flow will be established by Sunday morning. On Monday, expect the onshore flow to strengthen prior to a cold front arriving on Tuesday. Rain chances increase with the frontal passage. Moderate to strong offshore flow after the frontal passage - a few gusts towards the 60 nm mark could possibly reach above 30 knots on Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, TX
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location: 28.95, -95.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 071113 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 513 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance].

The vast majority of the forecast period will be handling light to moderate winds as they veer from northerly to northeasterly/easterly through the day and into the evening. Moisture will begin to return overnight as winds become onshore. While ceilings are not anticipated, some FEW/SCT clouds at high MVFR are possible Guidance also hints at fog developing. this seems aggressive, so have stripped it from most terminals, except allowing for some MVFR fog near dawn at the usual suspects (CXO, SGR, LBX) that fog up before everyone else.

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 351 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2019/.

Fair weather is expected through the weekend and into early next week, with a warming trend that will continue until a cold arrives Monday night to usher in a colder air mass. This front will also bring a renewed chance of showers which look to linger through Tuesday and into Tuesday night. A more unsettled pattern looks to dominate the latter part of next week.

SHORT TERM [Through Sunday Night].

Northwest flow aloft and winds veering through north to northeasterly on Saturday is about as clear a signal as one can get for cooler, drier weather tomorrow. That said, underneath full sun and diminishing winds, I'm not really expecting a lot in the way of cold advection. So while cooler temps should be expected today, it should only be a modest difference from yesterday. I think the warm spots southwest of Houston should see a pretty good shot at cracking 70 degrees still.

By Sunday, look for surface winds to be back to southeasterly, with 850 winds shifting around to be southwesterly, so a warmup looks to be in the cards. I went ahead and overshot the guidance consensus a bit, with widespread highs in the 70s, and rising into the middle to upper 70s in the west. Clouds as a weak vort max passes by may hold temps back a bit, but I don't expect the influence to be too severe.

LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday].

The warmup continues into Monday! Onshore flow will boost dewpoints, keeping overnight temps Sunday night into Monday higher. More sun should also help make for a hotter afternoon. I don't explicitly forecast any records (and given this is Day 3, I sure hope I'm not!) but we're getting up into that neighborhood, with forecast highs 2-5 degrees short of record values.

Of course, upstream, things are changing. By Monday, look for a northern stream trough moving across the Northern Plains to drag an upper low over the desert Southwest in tow. While there had earlier been some spread in the guidance in the evolution of this upper air pattern, it looks like there is a growing consensus that the southern stream low will hang on for the ride, providing dynamic support to the tail of a cold front attached to a surface low over the eastern Great Lakes. Did not run completely with the very wet PoPs in the consensus of guidance, but do feel more confident in putting likely rain chances Monday night into Tuesday.

After that, things get . interesting. Depending on how long it takes the southern stream trough to swing through Texas, precip could linger through much of Tuesday and potentially into Tuesday night. At the same time, there should be fairly strong cold advection behind the front. If you're reading between the lines, I imagine you've already guessed what I'm starting to hint at here. It's an extremely unlikely scenario, but if precip lingers significantly longer than expected, and we see a good, deep push of colder air . I'm not even going to jinx it by saying the "s-word" here. Ultimately, there is not a single GEFS member that creates this overlap, and I am pretty doubtful that we'd even see flurries out of this. What I do think we may need to watch out for is a good, ol' fashioned, "5 pellets of sleet" setup where the lower atmosphere is dry enough to allow for significant evaporative cooling to push things just cold enough to freeze the last bit of mid-level precip before things turn off for good. Stay tuned, I guess, and we'll see how this plays out.

From there, we see a pretty muddled picture as a stream of upper troughs roll through. If there's enough moisture in place, we could see some light showers - probably over the Gulf, maybe around the coast. The passing of multiple disturbances looks to keep 850 winds north of west pretty frequently, which will ensure that any warming trend - if there is one at all - will be slow and gradual.

MARINE.

Moderate and occasionally gusty offshore winds will diminish and veer to northeasterly through the day. Winds should continue veering through the night, and light onshore flow will be established by Sunday morning. On Monday, expect the onshore flow to strengthen prior to a cold front arriving with strong rain chances on Tuesday. Moderate to strong offshore flow after the frontal passage, and a small craft advisory looks like a strong possibility. There may be an outside shot for a very low end gale in the offshore waters.

Tides will gradually return to near astronomical norms as winds veer away from offshore, and eventually become higher than from those astronomical predictions as onshore flow returns. In an absolute sense, it seems likely that the next few low tide cycles will be roughly the same, as astronomical tides fall into next week.

CLIMATE.

Galveston tied its record high yesterday, reaching 79 degrees. The record it matched is not terribly old, dating back only to 1998. Cooler conditions should keep us safe from any record values this weekend, but there is a chance we'll get back into the neighborhood of record highs on Monday if pre-frontal warming is strong enough.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

College Station (CLL) 69 48 75 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 70 49 74 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 66 58 71 65 75 / 0 0 0 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

TX . None. GM . None.



DISCUSSION . Luchs SHORT TERM . Luchs LONG TERM . Luchs AVIATION . Luchs MARINE . Luchs CLIMATE . Luchs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EMAT2 17 mi46 min NNW 8 G 8.9 49°F 64°F1023.8 hPa
SGNT2 21 mi52 min N 4.1 G 6 50°F 64°F1023.8 hPa
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 34 mi52 min N 7 G 9.9 55°F 66°F
FPST2 34 mi52 min NNW 11 G 14 55°F 67°F1023.7 hPa
VCAT2 41 mi52 min N 9.9 G 13 54°F 62°F1024.6 hPa
MBET2 42 mi52 min NE 16 G 19 56°F 64°F1022.7 hPa
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 42 mi52 min NNE 19 G 21 56°F 63°F1024.2 hPa
LUIT2 44 mi46 min N 12 G 13 57°F 62°F1025.4 hPa
KBQX 47 mi19 min NNE 19 61°F 54°F

Wind History for USCG Freeport, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay City, Bay City Municipal Airport, TX4 mi39 minN 610.00 miFair52°F46°F82%1024.7 hPa
Palacios Municipal Airport, TX23 mi41 minN 810.00 miFair48°F43°F83%1024.6 hPa
Wharton, Wharton Regional Airport, TX24 mi39 minN 710.00 miFair47°F40°F78%1025.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBYY

Wind History from BYY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmE4SE7S9S9S7S10
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2 days agoN3NE3NE4NE5NE3CalmCalmNE3S6S3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3E3E4E3

Tide / Current Tables for Freeport Harbor, Texas
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Freeport Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:38 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:19 AM CST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:01 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:04 PM CST     1.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:43 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:23 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:32 PM CST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:44 PM CST     1.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.10.90.60.40.30.20.20.30.50.70.911.110.90.80.80.80.80.911.11.2

Tide / Current Tables for Freeport Harbor, Texas (2)
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Freeport Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:38 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:17 AM CST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:01 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:11 PM CST     1.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:43 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:23 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:43 PM CST     1.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:44 PM CST     1.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.41.10.90.70.50.50.50.60.70.91.11.31.31.31.21.11.11.11.11.21.31.41.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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