Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West DeLand, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:58PM Friday August 23, 2019 7:35 AM EDT (11:35 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 12:59PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 413 Am Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East winds 5 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 413 Am Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis..The atlantic ridge axis will weaken across north florida and adjacent atlantic waters into the weekend while an easterly wave moves across the local atlantic through the waters. This will generate a gentle to moderate east-northeast breeze through midday today, veering to southeast this afternoon, then south-southeast tonight and Saturday. As the wave/surface low moves northeastward away from the area into early next week, winds will veer more south to southwesterly as the atlantic ridge axis rebuilds across south florida.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday august 22nd. 39 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 27 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 20 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 13 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 8 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West DeLand, FL
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location: 28.99, -81.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 230800
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
400 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Discussion
Today-tonight...

the LCL wx pattern will begin to transition from the recent "dry"
spell to a wetter one as a sharp inverted trof over the bahama
bank fl straits works its way acrs the fl peninsula and into the ern
gomex. This trof will work in tandem with a frontal trof over the ne
conus to collapse the WRN flank of the bermuda ridge axis currently
over N fl and the NE gomex.

E NE low mid lvl flow to start the day will gradually shift to the
se by early aftn, then S SE overnight as the fl peninsula gains the
backside of the trof. Early mrng convection over the gulf stream
coincides with an increasing moisture gradient: h100-h70 mean rh
arnd 70pct north of the i-4 corridor increases to arnd 85pct over
the treasure coast, and over 90pct over the bahamas. Mid lvls still
in the dry side as h85-h50 avg dewpoint depressions arnd 10c along
and north of i-4, decreasing to 4-5c over the treasure coast lake-o
region.

Dynamically speaking, the LCL airmass remains rather tepid. The
leading edge of the h85-h50 vort and omega maxes assocd with the
trof are on course to impact areas south of lake-o jupiter inlet,
and while the tutt axis that has brought the recent dry spell has
fully retreated, the resulting h30-h20 flow has largely collapsed as
well. Furthermore, a mid lvl thermal ridge has built acrs the state
with h70 temps running 10-11c and h85-h70 lapse rates arnd 4.5c km.

H50 temps arnd -6c are unimpressive as well.

This appears to be a "high pop low qpf" set-up as we transition to a
the wetter pattern for the upcoming weekend. Pops will follow the
moisture profile with 40pct along and north of i-4, increasing to
60pct over the space treasure coasts and lake-o region. QPF however,
blow 0.25" north of i-4 and btwn 0.25"-0.50" along the treasure
coast. Increasing cloud cover and precip will keep MAX temps in the
u80s l90s south of i-4, lower rain chances north of i-4 will allow
aftn readings to climb into the l m90s. Increasing southerly flow
overnight will keep min temps in the m70s.

Saturday-Sunday...

regardless of any tropical development, the approach of invest 98l
will bring a surge of tropical moisture over much of the fl
peninsula, and a big increase in rain chances this weekend. Model
forecast soundings indicate precipitable water (pwat) values of
2.00" for all of east central fl, with some areas along the coast
possibly reaching up to 2.20" as the main moisture axis makes its
closest approach to our area. There is good model agreement on high
rain chances on both Saturday and Sunday, thus continued the current
forecast of 50-60 percent chance of rain. Light southeast winds on
Saturday will become southwest on Sunday, though variable winds are
possible along the coast as a weak inverted trough sets up.

Afternoon temps will climb to around 90 degrees, and overnight temps
should be in the low to mid 70s.

The main impacts from showers and lighting storms this weekend is
going to be dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes, and locally
heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches will be possible,
with locally higher amounts of 4 inches or more. This could lead to
minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas.

There is a noteworthy spread between the gfs, ecmwf, nam12, and cmc
on the exact movement and evolution of invest 98l. There is an
evident split between the systems's surface and mid-level
circulations. Most models have the surface circulation moving over
the southern fl peninsula where it dissipates in the eastern gulf of
mexico. The mid-level circulation will strengthen a bit just east of
the fl peninsula, where the majority of the moisture will be
concentrated. The ECMWF is much more aggressive in tropical
cyclogenesis as it has the surface circulation moving along the
eastern side of the fl peninsula. However, any development of this
system is likely to be far enough north and east from central fl
that it poses no threat to us at this time.

Monday-Thursday...

a diffused and messy mid upper through will move through the
southeast tn valley before ejecting out to sea near the mid-atlantic
coast. As the atlantic ridge is pushed further east, and a weak
ridge builds over the gulf of mexico, winds over the fl peninsula
will become west southwesterly for much of next week. This flow
regime favors afternoon showers and storms and higher than normal
rain chances on the eastern side of the peninsula. Both the GFS and
ecmwf show a broad surface low developing in the vicinity of the
peninsula by week's end, with the ECMWF showing a more robust
system. The main storm threats from afternoon storms continues to be
dangerous lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall leading to
minor flooding. Temperatures will be near normal, afternoon highs
are forecast in the low 90s, and overnight lows in low to mid 70s.

Aviation Thru 24 12z.

Sfc winds: thru 23 12z... E NE 3-5kts. Btwn 23 12z-23 15z... Bcmg E ne
5-8kts. Btwn 23 15z-23 18z... N of kmlb-kism bcmg E NE 7-10kts... S of
kmlb-kism bcmg E SE 8-12kts. Btwn 24 00z-24 03z... Bcmg E SE 3-6kts.

Vsbys wx cigs: thru 23 12z... E of kmlb-kobe slgt chc MVFR shras.

Btwn 23 12z-23 16z... Chc MVFR shras ifr tsras. Btwn 23 16z-23 24z...

s of kmlb-kism nmrs MVFR shras ifr tsras... N of kmlb-kism chc MVFR
shras ifr tsras. Btwn 24 00z-24-04z... Coastal sites chc MVFR
shras slgt chc ifr tsras... Interior sites slgt chc MVFR shras ifr
tsras. Aft 24 06z... Coastal sites slgt chc MVFR shras.

Marine
Today-tonight... Inverted trof over the bahama bank will push acrs
the LCL atlc waters today, generating a gentle to moderate E ne
breeze acrs the LCL atlc thru early aftn. Winds will gradually veer
to E SE toward sunset the S SE overnight as the trof axis works its
way acrs fl and into the gomex. Seas 2-3ft but choppy as a short pd
swell train is currently impacting the east fl coast... Dominant pds
largely AOB 5 sec. Isold shras tsras. Precip chances increasing
areawide thru the day as the region gains the backside of the trof.

Saturday-Sunday... A large area of disturbed weather will move over
the nearshore atlantic waters brining scattered to numerous showers
and lightning storms this weekend. A few of these storms will be
capable of producing wind gusts up to 35 knots. Boating conditions
may become hazardous to small crafts operating in the offshore
waters starting Saturday evening through Sunday as southeast winds
increase to 15 knots and seas increase to 3-4 feet.

Monday-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions resume at the start of
the week as the tropical wave pushes away from the area. Southwest
to west winds around 5-10 knots, and seas will be around 2-3 feet.

The southwest winds will promote the development of offshore moving
showers and storms in the afternoon. The main threats with any of
these storms will be dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes and
perhaps a few wind gusts up to 35 knots.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 89 76 89 74 40 30 40 20
mco 92 75 92 75 40 20 50 20
mlb 88 78 88 76 60 40 60 30
vrb 88 75 89 74 60 40 60 40
lee 94 76 92 76 40 20 40 20
sfb 93 75 92 76 40 20 40 20
orl 93 76 91 76 40 20 40 20
fpr 88 75 90 74 60 40 60 40

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Bragaw
long term impact wx... Rodriguez


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 47 mi110 min Calm 72°F 1018 hPa72°F
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 56 mi47 min ENE 6 G 8 81°F 84°F1016.9 hPa
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 60 mi35 min NNW 5.1 G 5.1 78°F 81°F1017 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL16 mi2.7 hrsNNE 310.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1015.2 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL21 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miShallow Fog76°F73°F94%1015.9 hPa
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL22 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSFB

Wind History from SFB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalm----E5E7NE11
G16
E10E13E10----E6--------------N3--NE4
1 day agoE4----E5E5E9E5SE10--E11E10E10E8E6E4----E3----------Calm
2 days agoE3E5SE9SE7--SE9E7SE8SW8----E4E5E5------------------E5

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida (3)
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Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
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Fri -- 12:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:35 AM EDT     5.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:48 AM EDT     2.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:12 PM EDT     6.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:36 PM EDT     2.97 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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55.45.45.14.43.73.12.72.52.83.54.35.15.86.15.95.54.84.13.4333.33.8

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida (4)
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Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:30 AM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:47 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:03 PM EDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:35 PM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.13.53.53.12.51.70.90.50.40.71.52.33.13.73.93.73.32.61.81.30.90.91.31.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.