Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
West DeLand, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:29PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 8:47 AM EST (13:47 UTC) Moonrise 4:32PMMoonset 5:27AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 355 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Showers likely.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers likely.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 355 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis..A high pressure ridge will remain in place across the adjacent atlantic and florida into tomorrow. Another cold front will then move into the waters on Wednesday and become stationary across the area. Deteriorating boating conditions are expected beginning Wednesday night, with hazardous conditions continuing into the upcoming weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday, december 7th. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West DeLand, FL
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location: 28.99, -81.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 100922 CCA AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion . corrected. National Weather Service Melbourne FL 422 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

DISCUSSION.

. Near Record Highs for a Few Spots Today .

. Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Wednesday night into Friday .

Today-Tonight . Through the early morning hours, isolated showers will linger along the immediate Brevard and Treasure Coasts with enough of an onshore wind component before the flow veers keeping the shower activity offshore. Patchy fog will also be possible through the early morning hours with any fog potential ending by 8- 9am.

For the rest of today, mid-level ridging overhead gets nudged eastward by longwave troughing over the center of the CONUS. A southwest flow will develop aloft while the low-level ridge axis remains across central Florida. Warm advection due to the south to southwesterly flow in the low-levels will give us another afternoon of well above average temperatures with highs expected to be in the mid 80s. Some daily record highs temperatures will be approached with the greatest potential of being tied or broken at Sanford (see climate section below).

The atmosphere will not be as suppressed with less of an influence of the mid-level ridge, so some shower development is possible during the afternoon hours. However, there will still be a lot of dry air aloft to overcome, so rain chances are only 20% or less.

By this evening, rain chances increase into the early overnight hours as the models are showing an area of higher moisture moving in from the S/SW along with some isentropic ascent. Highest chances will be south of I-4 (30%) and 20% north before this activity shifts offshore after midnight.

Afterwards, conditions appear favorable for fog development, some locally dense, and most model guidance seems to be on board. Highest potential looks to be west of an Okeechobee to New Smyrna Beach line where "Areas" wording has been included while areas to the east have "Patchy" mention. Very mild overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s for most and near 70 for the beaches

Wednesday-Friday . A strung out vort axis emanating from the tail end of a northern stream mid level short wave trough will push across the SE CONUS and FL panhandle through Wed night. As it does, the surface cold front draped across NOFL will sag south into ECFL with brisk onshore NE-E overspreading the area Thu-Thu night as the boundary stalls. As low pressure develops over the NE GOMEX and moves NE into the SE CONUS Fri, winds quickly veer SE-S as the front lifts back across NOFL/GA. As the low lifts rapidly NE through mid Atlantic states through Fri night, it will drag a pre-frontal trough back across ECFL Fri night. Clouds and rain chances increase during the Thu-Fri period, with a few TS possible along both the warm front and pre-frontal trough passages.

Rain chances look to average 10-20 percent higher near the coast (50- 60) vs inland (30-40). Locally heavy rainfall totals (2-4"+) will be possible in a few spots along/near the east coast, however pinning down which counties/locales ahead of time is problematic, so best to broad brush to some degree in the HWO. Expect above normal temps through the period - mainly M-U70s north to L80s south, with mins generally in the L-M60s.

Saturday-Monday . Mid level troughing over the central-eastern CONUS flattens, allowing the flow to become zonal locally. A few lingering showers Saturday (mainly early) will exit the region, with a drier (but still mild/warm) air mass taking hold into early next week. Maxes in the 75-80F range with mins in the U50s-L60s most areas.

AVIATION. Conditions are expected to be primarily VFR through the TAF period although some patchy fog and/or brief MVFR/IFR ceilings will be possible through 14Z or so this morning. Otherwise, isolated showers are possible this afternoon but coverage much too low for TAF mention. Higher rain chances increase after sunset so most sites have VCSH after 00Z. Models are also hitting fog pretty hard overnight tonight into Wednesday morning, and restrictions for this will likely show up in the 12Z TAF package.

MARINE. Today-tonight . Surface ridge axis extending across the waters will provide s S/SE flow around 15 knots. There could be a brief period of 15-20 kt winds overnight tonight so a cautionary statement may be needed. Winds will begin to veer to SSW overnight as the next cold front approaches. Seas will remain 3-4 ft nearshore and 4-5 ft offshore.

Wednesday-Saturday . Onshore flow will increase from N-S behind the cold FROPA Wed night-Thu AM, reaching speeds of 15-20KT near shore and 20-25KT offshore. This will allow seas to build as high as 6-8FT offshore and over the Gulf Stream Wed night, then to 9-11FT in a building swell through Thu night as NE-E fetch lengthens. Winds will gradually veer more southerly early Fri, then SW late Fri into early Sat as the GOMEX low lifts rapidly NE across the eastern CONUS, and then W-NW behind the trailing prefrontal trough through Sat night.

Confidence is high that an SCA will eventually be needed for the 20- 60NM legs offshore Volusia/Brevard Cos, and possibly south of SIPF1 as well.

CLIMATE. Daily record highs for December 10 .

Record High Date Daytona Beach 85 1947 Orlando 88 1918 Sanford 85 2013 Melbourne 85 2013 Vero Beach 86 2012 Fort Pierce 87 2012

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 83 65 75 62 / 20 30 40 50 MCO 85 66 80 66 / 20 30 40 40 MLB 83 69 79 69 / 20 30 50 50 VRB 83 68 80 66 / 20 30 50 60 LEE 84 65 78 62 / 20 20 40 30 SFB 85 66 79 64 / 20 30 40 40 ORL 85 67 79 64 / 20 30 40 40 FPR 83 67 81 67 / 20 30 50 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION . Combs LONG TERM . Cristaldi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 47 mi62 min Calm 60°F 1022 hPa59°F
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 56 mi47 min Calm G 0 69°F 70°F1021.5 hPa (+0.8)
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 60 mi47 min S 2.9 G 4.1 65°F 67°F1020.2 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL16 mi54 minN 010.00 miShallow Fog62°F60°F93%1020.1 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL21 mi54 minN 09.00 miShallow Fog62°F62°F100%1020.1 hPa
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL22 mi60 minN 08.00 miFair61°F59°F94%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSFB

Wind History from SFB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S7S7S9S7S6S8S6SW4S3SE6SE4SE4SE3S3S4S3CalmCalmSE3SE3CalmSE3Calm
1 day agoN3N4E4E9SE8SE8SE9E11E9E7E4E4CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4
2 days agoCalmN53E53NE7N6NE7NE8N8N5N6N7N6N6NW5W4NW6NW3NW5NW3CalmCalmNW3

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida (3)
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Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:25 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:18 AM EST     6.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:34 PM EST     2.71 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:35 PM EST     5.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.83.64.65.66.46.96.76.25.24.23.32.82.83.13.84.65.45.95.95.54.73.72.8

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida (4)
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Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:25 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:20 AM EST     4.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:39 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:39 PM EST     3.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.51.32.33.344.44.43.8321.10.50.40.91.62.53.33.83.93.52.71.70.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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