Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Glencoe, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:28PM Thursday September 16, 2021 3:40 PM EDT (19:40 UTC) Moonrise 4:03PMMoonset 1:32AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 338 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 5 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 5 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Showers likely and scattered Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers likely and scattered Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 338 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis..Winds will remain south to southwest with a low pressure system located near the the carolina coast and the remenants of nicholas over the gulf of mexico. The system will track just off the northeast coast through the end of the week, with high moisture remaining in place across the local area. High coverage of showers and Thunderstorms into early next week.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, september 14th. 46 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 35 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 19 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glencoe, FL
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location: 29.01, -80.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 161931 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 331 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

DISCUSSION. Current-Tonight . As advertised, coverage of showers and thunderstorms has increased early this afternoon, with the east coast sea breeze crawling inland and a hard to distinguish west coast breeze already advancing well inland. Scattered storms are making way towards the Kissimmee River, extending from the southwest shores of Lake Okeechobee towards Tampa, with additional convection now developing along the east coast sea breeze for the Space and Treasure Coasts.

The mid-morning XMR sounding did indicate increasing moisture as anticipated, with PW rising to 1.76", nearly 0.20" higher than the previous release (and likely higher through 3pm). Most of this moisture has arrived in the mid-levels from the outer remnants of Nicholas, which may place a damper on wind gust potential through the afternoon. Still, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop through the remainder of the day and into the early evening, especially for areas near to east of I-95. As has occurred most of the day, the latest HRRR run has flipped back to a less robust collision at the coast, rather showing numerous showers and storms areawide through the early evening. Still, propagation of outflow boundaries on current radar suggest additional strong convection is likely over the next several hours, with wind gusts up to 50 mph and frequent lightning strikes. Storm motion will be slow, leading to very heavy downpours and efficient rainmakers. A quick 2 to 3 inches of rain in a short period of time is possible, with locally higher amounts especially in Volusia and Brevard counties.

Activity is expected to last beyond sunset due to the late afternoon collision, thus will keep 50% PoPs in through midnight areawide, although activity will trend downward across Lake County soon after sunset. Lingering showers and storms will shift over the Atlantic waters, with land areas dry through daybreak. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Tomorrow . Friday will be another wet day, with Nicholas' remnants traversing across the Deep South and a closed mid-level trough exiting east Texas. Along the eastern seaboard, Invest 96L will shift northeastward leading to light and variable flow across the FL peninsula. Through the end of the week, the GFS continues to show very high PWAT values, creeping well above 2.2". PoPs similar tomorrow as today, approaching 70% during peak heating in the afternoon hours. With variable winds, sea breeze progression becomes more equivalent to both coasts, so may see a collision across the interior tomorrow. Still, any lift will support convection, so expect storms with heavy rain areawide tomorrow. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Weekend . The remnants of Nicholas will slowly track through the Deep South before dissipating as high pressure remains centered over eastern CONUS this weekend. Meanwhile, Invest 96L is expected to strengthen just off the Carolina coasts and move away from Florida as it tracks just off the northeast coast of the country. Given the aforementioned setup, moisture will continue to remain high through the weekend with the return of southwesterly flow. Guidance indicates that precipitable water values will remain well above 2" through the weekend. The best chance for rain to develop with sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions will be across northern interior during each afternoon this weekend, although widespread 70% PoPs is expected on Sunday. Rain chances will dwindle as you head towards midnight with the loss of daytime heating and as offshore flow sets up each night. High temperatures will stay in the upper 80s to low 90s with lows dropping down into the low- to- mid 70s.

Monday-Thursday . An upper-level ridge will begin to build over the eastern half of the country through midweek. High pressure will develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday/Monday which will likely cause a better setup for the east coast sea breeze compared to previous days with deeper onshore flow. Models continue to show increased rain chances with PWAT values remaining above 2" through midweek. Scattered-to-numerous afternoon showers and lighting storms will be possible each day as collisions occur between the sea breeze and outflow boundaries. Drier air will filter in over Florida by late- week, as onshore flow becomes weak and an upper- level trough develops over the eastern half of the country. Temperatures will stay in the upper 80s to low 90s for highs with lows generally in the low-to-mid 70s.

AVIATION. Slow moving sct showers and storms will be steered toward the east coast through dusk. Affected locations mainly along to east of I-4 will see brief periods of mainly MVFR conditions in occasional storms. Coastal sites will revert to isold showers psbl aft 00z through around 04Z. Another round of sct to numerous showers and storms is expected on Fri with cig/vsby reductions to MVFR and briefly IFR FM 17/18Z-17/22Z.

MARINE. Tonight-Tomorrow . High coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tomorrow due to increasing moisture across the region. Activity will move offshore over the Atlantic waters tonight, diminishing to isolated to scattered coverage over the Gulf Stream tonight, then picking up again driven by sea breeze collisions tomorrow. South to southwest winds below 10 knots with seas 2-4 ft decreasing to 2-3 ft by tomorrow afternoon as Invest 96L moves along the Carolina coast.

Saturday-Monday . High pressure will develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico as the remnants of Nicholas diminish over the Deep South. SW winds will remain light between 5-10kts but become more easterly which will build seas to 1-3ft. Afternoon scattered- to- numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly before midnight as precipitation develops and moves onshore.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 74 89 74 89 / 60 60 50 70 MCO 75 90 75 91 / 50 70 30 70 MLB 75 90 74 90 / 60 50 40 50 VRB 74 90 74 90 / 50 50 40 50 LEE 75 90 75 91 / 50 70 30 70 SFB 75 90 74 91 / 60 70 40 70 ORL 75 90 75 91 / 50 70 30 70 FPR 73 90 74 90 / 40 60 40 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM . Smith LONG TERM . Weitlich AVIATION . Pendergrast


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 46 mi53 min ESE 6 G 9.9 87°F 86°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 47 mi56 min ESE 6 84°F 1016 hPa77°F
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 49 mi45 min 85°F2 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 55 mi31 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 83°F 86°F1013.9 hPa76°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL4 mi1.9 hrsE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F73°F70%1015.2 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL12 mi48 minSSE 88.00 miLight Rain82°F75°F79%1014.9 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL21 mi48 minSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F70°F53%1014.3 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL21 mi51 minESE 87.00 miShowers in Vicinity84°F73°F70%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEVB

Wind History from EVB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8SE11SE11SE11SE8SE7SE6SE4----------------CalmCalmCalmSE4E6SE4E10E7
1 day agoE8E8NE8NE8NE7NE7NE7S4----------------CalmCalmSE6SE6SE8E8E10E10
2 days agoNE10NE10NE10NE10NE12NE8NE8NE4----------------NE4NE4NE5NE7NE7NE10NE10E8
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Tide / Current Tables for Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida (2)
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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:55 AM EDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:35 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:48 PM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.21.62.12.52.62.42.11.61.10.70.40.40.71.21.72.32.72.72.62.21.71.20.9

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida
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Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:36 AM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:40 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:19 PM EDT     4.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:43 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.62.333.43.53.12.51.60.80.30.20.61.42.53.54.34.64.643.121.10.5

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