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GMZ550 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Nm- 219 Am Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. A chance of showers.
Thursday night..South winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Showers likely. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
Sunday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely.
Sunday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 214 Am Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
high pressure has settled over the area this evening and will remain in place through today with light winds and calmer seas expected. The high will begin to shift east of the local waters on Thursday, with a return to a moderate onshore flow. This moderate onshore flow will persist into the weekend as a series of low pressure systems pass north of the waters.

FXUS64 KLIX 291105 AAA AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 505 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

NEW AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

It's a cold start out there this morning. Winds have calmed and skies have cleared across the region allowing for temperatures to drop quite effectively through the overnight hours. Typical cold air drainage is occuring along the Pascagoula and Pearl River basins this morning, which is likely where the coldest temperatures will reside within the boundaries of our CWFA.

Although we start cold, today will be the start of a pattern shift back to warmer conditions. The surface high will spread eastward during the day today allowing for surface winds to transition back to a warmer/moister southerly onshore flow. Additionally, the upper level pattern becomes more zonal/progressive with a slight uptick in thicknesses and heights. Although max temperatures will not be dramatically warm due to lag, it will become more noticeable overnight tonight with lows only dropping into the 40s and 50s instead of the upper 20s and 30s like we have this morning. The warming will be in response low level WAA/increasing surface flow and cloudiness limiting radiative processes.

Clouds and southerly winds will increase during the day on Thursday. The upper level flow transitions once again to a more southwesterly flow aloft and eyes will begin to focus on a surface low developing over the high plains of TX/OK and the developing showers and thunderstorms ahead of this surface feature and upper level parent trough. A strong impulse begins to amplify upstream toward the end of the short term period. Within a region of strong difluence and plenty of moisture, shower and storm activity is anticipated to develop over Texas Thursday late morning and begin to push gradually toward our forecast area as the short term ends.
As for temperatures, most of the area will rebound into the upper 60s if not lower 70s by Thursday afternoon under a continued strong WAA regime. (Frye)

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Going into late Thursday our first a few waves/periods of beneficial rainfall will move into the region from the south and west within the mean upper level flow. A strong negatively tilted upper trough will swing from the TX caprock north and east to the Missouri Ozarks through early morning Friday. This will help a surface cold front move toward our region. This system be very quick to continue downstream toward the Great Lakes as it weakens.
Our area will remain well within the warm sector and with the surface low deepening, expect onshore flow to continue to increase late Thursday and Friday out ahead of the system. Severe potential may still be present, but the best potential continues to be north and west of our CWFA where the better dynamics will be. That said, there should be enough ascent, instability, and shear around to have at least a conditional severe weather potential late Thursday night along the warm front and during the day Friday, although we begin to lose the best upper level support in time.

The aforementioned cold front will stall over our region. In between impulses, expect rain chances to drop sometime on Friday before a coastal low tries to develop near the mouth of the Rio Grande along the front and natural baroclinic zone offshore. The low doesn't deepen much, but the upper impulse and continued moist advection and isentropic upglide will help generate another wave of showers and elevated storms late Friday and into Saturday.
Then the forecast confidence gradually decreases. Consensus guidance wants to hang onto POPs going well into the start of the new workweek. However, guidance has been rather "windshield wipery" (a new word by Forecaster Frye), if you will with the progressive nature of the front and upper level kicker moving back and forth. Since the mean trend has been drier, we along with the neighboring offices decided to set this trend in motion in regards to the forecast for early next week. QPF values are still beneficial and nonthreatening at this point in time. On average, QPF values have decreased over the last couple of days due to the more progressive or transient nature of the weekend system.
However, still expecting generally 2 to 4 inches of rainfall from Thursday through Monday. Of course some adjustments in this are anticipated, especially with any temporal changes. By early next week a more Pacific airmass will filter into the region with a slight cool down, but nothing atypical for this time of year with overnight lows in the upper 30s to middle and upper 40s respectively during the overnight and generally 60s to near 70 degrees during the afternoon hours. (Frye)

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conditions through this cycle anticipated. Perhaps some increase in high cirrus toward Thursday morning. Otherwise, the main story will be the winds shift generally to a more southeasterly direction with time...but should remain on the somewhat lighter side...generally below 10kts for most terminals.
(Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 230 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

High pressure is in control today, however, will begin to spread east of our area later this afternoon and tonight. On the western periphery of the high, expect an onshore return flow to develop and gradually intensify through late week ahead of the next weather system. At least cautionary headlines will be required by Thursday afternoon and then likely SCA will be needed for all waters by Thursday night and Friday as surface winds and seas build to hazardous thresholds.

By Saturday and Sunday, a frontal boundary is forecast to stall over the local waters. This boundary will allow winds and seas to settle somewhat back more toward favorable conditions, however, with the frontal boundary over the region expect showers and thunderstorms to develop in a more widespread fashion. The strongest activity will have the potential to cause locally higher winds and seas over the marine zones. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 60 40 63 57 / 0 0 50 90 BTR 65 46 68 63 / 0 0 60 90 ASD 62 44 68 60 / 0 0 20 80 MSY 62 51 68 63 / 0 0 40 70 GPT 60 45 68 60 / 0 0 10 70 PQL 63 39 69 58 / 0 0 10 70

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for LAZ034>037-039- 047-048-071-076-079>084.

GM...None.
MS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...None.

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Caillou Boca
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Wed -- 06:37 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:58 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:23 AM CST     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:05 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:04 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:41 PM CST     1.86 feet High Tide
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Caillou Boca, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Raccoon Point
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Wed -- 06:38 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:59 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:15 AM CST     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:05 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:04 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:58 PM CST     2.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Raccoon Point, Caillou Bay, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

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