Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 11:03 AM   Moonset 12:21 AM

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GMZ550 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Nm- 334 Am Cdt Tue May 14 2024
.gale warning in effect until 6 am cdt early this morning - ..small craft advisory in effect until 10 am cdt this morning - .
Today - Southwest winds 25 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 5 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms this morning, then a slight chance of showers early this afternoon. Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 8 seconds and west 2 feet at 2 seconds. Wednesday - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 8 seconds.Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 8 seconds. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 334 Am Cdt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
winds will become more west to southwesterly and decrease to less than 10 knots through the afternoon today. Southerly component to light winds remains intact through midweek but becomes more easterly with time by later in the week.

FXUS64 KLIX 140835 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 335 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Have cancelled the Flash Flood Watch for the entire area. Some lingering rainfall will still occur this morning but rates and amounts will not be enough to keep the watch going.

Wake depression(low) still keeping winds quite elevated this morning. Most of this is over marine areas and this is quite common as overland areas have rain cooled and become quite stable with a low level inversion cutting wind speeds down considerably. The rain is also pulling east and the only area that will see another small amount of rain will be Jackson Co. There could be some left over light rain around after daybreak but this will also move east. Cloud cover will hand on until around late morning to noon but clearing should be quick afterwards. We will then transition into somewhat lower dew pts this morning and maintain those conditions for the next few days. A cold front will also actually move through and stall over the gulf tonight into early Wed and also remain over the gulf through Wed night.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Thursday, this front will begin to move back to the north. This front can be seen best via dew pt gradients. This frontal interface will be the area that the next system will begin to use to develop our next bout of rain. The warm front moves inland and stalls along and NW of coastal Mississippi by late Thu. Models are in disagreement on timing of this system, but they agree on the overall synoptic picture. The upper troughing to the west will help make this all possible again just like the issue we just came out of.
Another short wave will exit the base with upper split flow continuing downstream. This is almost a diddo of what just occurred with some minor tweeks in placement. The main theme with this one will also be rainfall, but again, this complex of storms will also have the potential for severity as well. We will just have to get closer to the event to resolve the smaller details.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Cigs will lift from IFR this morning to MVFR and finally to VFR levels by late morning or noon today. There is a chance of getting a abit more -RA for some of the eastern coastal locations this morning but this will also be moving east. Clearing skies should be moving in shortly after going to VFR cig levels.

MARINE
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Will hold the Gale warning through 6am and bring these conditions down to advisory until mid morning before allowing all flags to drop. Winds will slowly shift from SW to NW by Wed morning as a cold front stalls over the northern gulf. A sfc high will rapidly move in and east of the area Wed causing this stalled boundary to begin moving back to the north for Thu causing return flow once again and a rise in wind speed through the end of the week. Another strong disturbance could impact the coastal waters by the end of this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 83 60 86 63 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 88 65 91 68 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 88 65 90 67 / 30 0 0 0 MSY 87 70 90 72 / 20 0 0 0 GPT 86 66 90 67 / 40 0 0 0 PQL 86 65 90 64 / 60 10 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Gale Warning until 6 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Gale Warning until 6 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

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Caillou Boca
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Tue -- 01:21 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:59 AM CDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:11 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:02 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:05 PM CDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
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Caillou Boca, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Raccoon Point, Caillou Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

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