Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Orange, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:29PM Monday December 16, 2019 9:00 AM EST (14:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:11PMMoonset 11:03AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 401 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers in the morning.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 401 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Synopsis..High pressure off the carolina coast this morning will continue seaward today with a trailing ridge axis slipping southward across the local atlantic waters through tonight. A cold front will push across the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Strong north winds behind the front will produce rapidly building seas on Wednesday, resulting in very hazardous boating conditions especially in the gulf stream.
Gulf stream hazards..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots early this morning. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday, december 14th. 44 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 11 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Orange, FL
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location: 29.13, -80.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 160952 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 452 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

DISCUSSION.

. Above Normal Temperatures Today and Tuesday . . Rapidly Deteriorating Boating Conditions Wednesday Behind A Cold Front .

Today . Return flow around departing high pressure off the Carolina coast will produce southeast wind and increase the moisture in the low levels. Marine stratocumulus clouds will pancake beneath a strong subsidence inversion which will produce more cloudiness than yesterday especially southern sections. Moisture depth may increase enough to spit out a few light showers over the Treasure coast counties so have drawn a 20 PoP there. Temps and dewpoints will also be higher, producing a warmer and more humid day. Max temps will reach the lower 80s, except upper 70s along the Volusia coast and barrier island of Brevard. These temps are above normal but will be short of any record highs.

Tonight . Southerly flow will keep temperatures quite mild with lows in the mid to upper 60s, which is 10-15 degrees above normal. Scattered showers will lift north mainly over the Atlc waters but will brush the Treasure coast. Over the interior, guidance is showing stratus and fog developing, including some dense fog. With 925 mb winds around 20 knots, think that stratus is more likely but added patchy fog for the interior counties.

Tuesday-Wednesday . The next frontal passage is on tap for midweek, as an upper trough dipping through the Midwest swings the associated surface low along the Appalachians towards the New England coast. This will dig a cold front into the Deep South today (and associated severe weather to portions of AL/MS), then down the FL peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday. Model discrepancy in exact timing is still present, with the GFS taking a slightly faster approach of the two, but latest runs are in decent agreement with an overall slower trend, with the frontal passage and associated northwesterly wind shift not occurring until late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Ahead of the late Tues fropa, the Atlantic ridge axis extends across FL, maintaining south winds through the day before veering west in the early evening. High rain chances return on Tuesday, as pre- frontal moisture shifts southward. Main adjustment to forecast is restricting likely PoPs to northern forecast area reflecting the slower timing trend (which may need further adjustment as it appears bulk of moisture may arrive after sunset). As front pushes south, shower and isolated storm coverage will follow suit, with rain chances 60-70 percent areawide Tuesday night. Moisture will linger across the south, mainly from Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast on Wednesday as front continues southward, with most showers clearing by Wednesday eve.

High temperatures on Tuesday will cruise to the low to mid 80s in southerly flow ahead of cold air behind the frontal passage (which looks to be the last 80 degree day for at least the next week). Timing of front may lead to further adjustments in low temps Tuesday, but as of now, northwest wind shift will bring values to the mid to upper 50s north of I-4, ranging from the low to upper 60s southward. As cold air advances south on Wednesday, highs will reach the low 60s across the north to the low/mid 70s southward. Finally by Wed night/Thu morning, noticeably colder air arrives, with morning lows in the low 40s across Lake/Volusia counties, mid 40s from the Orlando metro to Lake Okeechobee, and mid to upper 50s at coastal locations.

Thursday-Sunday . A short period of drier weather is expected to close out the work week, as high pressure builds in behind the mid week frontal passage, keeping rain chances to less than 20% on Thursday and Friday. Eyes focus on the potential for unsettled weather arriving this weekend, with exact unfolding still hidden within model discrepancy. GFS/ECM have actually flip-flopped solutions, with the former now digging an upper trough pushing across the region, with the ECM driving a closed upper low through the northern GOMEX to the coastal Carolinas. Due to (obvious) continued uncertainty and low confidence, have maintained at least scattered showers through the weekend as either solution will lead to another frontal passage for east central FL. Temperatures remain seasonal through the end of the period, with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s and lows in the 50s.

AVIATION. Patchy ground fog (BCFG) possible through 13Z otherwise mainly VFR conditions through 06Z with SE wind flow around 10 knots, a little stronger along the coast. Will see more cumulus than yesterday with cloud bases (occasional CIGs) around 035AGL. Conditions look favorable for stratus and patchy fog aft 06Z tonight especially MCO/SFB/LEE.

MARINE. Today . High pressure off the Carolina coast will continue seaward with return SE flow. Nocturnal increase in winds is producing 15-20 knots early this morning over the open Atlc so have started off with a Caution headline over the offshore waters. Winds will decrease 12-15 knots later this morning. Seas 3-4 feet with occasional 5 ft offshore.

Tonight . Winds veer S/SE as ridge axis presses southward across the waters ahead of an approaching cold front. Pressure gradient will support 10-15 knots.

Tuesday-Friday . Marine conditions will deteriorate rapidly late Tuesday, as another cold front pushes through the local Atlantic waters. South winds near 10 kts Tuesday will veer westerly then northwesterly behind the front early Wednesday, sending a surge of 20-25 kt winds southward. This sharp increase will build seas up to 8 ft in the nearshore waters and 10-11 ft offshore. A long-duration SCA is likely necessary through much of the week as winds remain above 20 kts and seas of at least 8 ft in the offshore waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 79 64 82 56 / 0 10 60 60 MCO 82 66 83 59 / 0 10 60 60 MLB 81 69 83 64 / 0 10 50 70 VRB 81 67 83 66 / 10 20 50 70 LEE 82 66 81 55 / 0 0 60 60 SFB 82 65 83 58 / 0 10 60 60 ORL 82 66 83 59 / 0 10 60 60 FPR 81 68 83 66 / 10 20 50 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.



SHORT TERM . Kelly/Leahy LONG TERM . Smith/Leahy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 39 mi75 min Calm 53°F 1024 hPa53°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 53 mi60 min SW 2.9 G 2.9 62°F 65°F1022.9 hPa (+1.3)
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 53 mi42 min SE 6 G 8.9 72°F 71°F1023.9 hPa

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL5 mi67 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds57°F57°F100%1022.5 hPa
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL5 mi73 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F53°F94%1023 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL14 mi70 minN 07.00 miFair61°F60°F100%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAB

Wind History from DAB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NE4NE4E4E6E8E7NE8E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3
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W11W10W9W4SW3W6W6W6W5SW3W3NW3CalmNW4CalmCalmNW3CalmNW3
2 days agoSW4SW4SW8SW8SW8SW6SW5S4CalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW7S6S7SW8S8S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida (4)
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Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:27 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:56 AM EST     4.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:02 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:12 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:25 PM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.61.50.600.10.81.82.93.84.54.74.43.62.51.40.60.20.41.122.83.54

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida
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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:03 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:02 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:15 AM EST     2.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:41 PM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:31 PM EST     2.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.81.20.70.30.10.30.71.322.52.82.72.31.81.20.80.50.40.71.11.72.22.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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