Sunday, April5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Daytona Beach Shores, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:46PM Sunday April 5, 2020 6:23 AM EDT (10:23 UTC) Moonrise 4:14PMMoonset 4:40AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 346 Am Edt Sun Apr 5 2020
.small craft exercise caution especially near inlets...
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 14 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 13 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 13 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..South winds 5 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 346 Am Edt Sun Apr 5 2020
Synopsis..Long period swells will propagate into the local atlantic waters today through Monday then gradually diminish. This will produce hazardous conditions for small craft near inlets during the outgoing tide. High pressure will move off the carolina coast this weekend then east over the atlantic and drag a trailing ridge axis south across the local atlantic waters. This will veer wind flow out of the south Tuesday then southwest to west Wednesday and Thursday.
Gulf stream hazards..Combined seas 6 to 7 feet today mainly from a northeast swell. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday, april 2nd. 44 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Daytona Beach Shores, FL
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location: 29.15, -80.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 050900 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 500 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

DISCUSSION.

. High Rip Current Risk in Effect Today .

Current . Mid and upper level clouds and their associated showers are beginning to move into northern parts of the area as of 5 AM. Observed and forecast soundings around the area indicate dry mid levels, so any initial precipitation from these showers will likely fall as virga, before the mid levels moisten sufficiently for the rain to make it to the ground. Heavier, near stationary showers are also present over the offshore waters and will continue through the morning hours.

Today-Tonight . Much cloudier with showers today, as a shortwave trough moves into the area from the west along a zonal flow pattern. Shower chances will increase through the day, becoming 40-50% area- wide by this afternoon. Despite comparatively higher daytime heating along the Treasure Coast, which will be last to see showers and cloudy skies move into the area, thunderstorms are not expected. Forecast soundings indicate dry mid levels persisting around peak daytime heating, with lapse rates less than 6 C/km. By the time the atmosphere moistens up later in the afternoon, much of the already limited instability should be over.

Latest model guidance came in a bit cooler for highs today. But, have only adjusted temperatures downward slightly, as daytime heating should be enough to springboard off of our somewhat mild morning lows and reach above current model guidance. So, highs in the upper 70s to near 80 inland and mid 70s along the coast, except for the low 80s along the Treasure Coast. Shower chances will decrease through the evening north of the Cape and inland; However, they will stick around for southern areas, particularly the Treasure Coast, through the overnight. Lows in the low to mid 60s for most areas, with the exception of coastal areas south of the Cape and the Treasure Coast, where clouds will persist longer. There, lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

Long period swells will generate a High Risk of rip currents at area beaches again today, particularly between 9 AM and 4 PM. Be sure to check with local officials regarding any beach closures that might be in effect for your county. Some beaches may not be staffed with lifeguards. If not, then do not enter the water.

Mon-Tue . Weak sfc high pressure along the Carolina coast will drift E/SE over the SW Atlc. A sfc trough over south FL on Mon will enhance the easterly pressure gradient producing a breezy day alg the coast. Then on Tue, a trailing ridge axis will drop south over central FL which will veer the winds more SE. There still remains some uncertainty in overall rain chances for the area. The GFS and ECMWF have turned wetter for Mon and so have raised PoPs for the southern coastal counties to 40 percent. Kept Volusia county dry but may need to add a small shower chance even across the far north. Max Temperatures will warm back into the mid 80s over Lake county Monday but remain in the upper 70s along the coast. Additional warming Tue with highs lower 80s coast and upper 80s interior.

Wed-Sat . Mid level high pressure ridge will rebuild over the southern Gulf of Mexico as a cut-off low drops south across CA then turns east over the southern Rockies mid week. But fast flow aloft over FL will allow continued ripples of vorticity and weak shortwave troughs to cross the area. This more unsettled pattern looks to continue the potential for isolated showers (20 percent), mainly across northern portions of east central Florida each afternoon. The GFS and ECMWF are coming into some better agreement regarding late week/weekend but there are noticeable timing differences esp regarding how quickly the cut-off low pushes east across the southern U.S. Both models do show considerable filling/weakening of the low as it encounters confluence aloft but differ in how much phasing occurs with the northern stream. Nonetheless, confidence is increasing that a cold front will sag into central FL on Sat and become stationary. This should produce a mostly cloudy day with scattered showers and have drawn 50 percent PoPs north and 30 PoPs south. Have not introduced thunder yet but will likely need to as model solutions converge on a timing solution.

Both models agree that developing offshore (west) flow Wed-Thu will produce much above normal temperatures with lower 90s even at the coast due to a late/non-existent sea breeze. These regimes usually produce hotter temps at the coast than the interior, so near record highs are expected along the coast those days.

AVIATION. VFR conditions prevailing, as mid and upper level clouds increase in coverage this morning. Showers beginning in northern and western TAF sites (KLEE/KMCO) first, as they move in from the Gulf of Mexico, before spreading to the remaining TAF sites through the afternoon. Brief MVFR CIGS/VIS may be possible in heavier showers. Generally light winds this morning becoming easterly around 10 kts this afternoon.

MARINE. Today-Tonight . Long period swells continuing, as a disturbance moves in from the Gulf of Mexico. Showers already present offshore this morning will increase in coverage through the day today, with easterly winds increasing to 10-15 kts by late this afternoon. Small craft should exercise caution, especially near inlets, due to long periods of 13-14 seconds. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect at 10 AM this morning for the offshore waters and later this afternoon for nearshore waters south of Sebastian inlet, due to seas building to 5-7 ft. Nearshore, seas becoming 4-6 ft this afternoon. Seas, long periods, and showers will persist through the overnight, with winds becoming around 10 kts towards daybreak.

Mon . High pressure pushing off the Carolina coast will combine with a weak sfc trough across south FL to produce a breezy East flow around 15 knots across the central and southern waters, 10-15 knots across the north. Incoming long period swells will combine with these onshore winds to produce combined seas up to 8 feet over the open Atlc and 5-6 ft near the coast. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the offshore waters and over the nearshore Treasure coast waters. A Caution headline will be needed for the Volusia and Brevard nearshore waters.

Tue-Thu . The NE swell component to seas will gradually diminish mid week so the combined seas are forecast to fall below 7 ft by Tue morning. Winds will veer to the SE to S Tuesday as ridge axis slips south across the waters. By Wed, the ridge axis will be south of the waters, resulting in a W/SW (offshore) flow 10-15 knots which will persist Thu. Seas will subside 3-4 ft nearshore and 5 ft offshore Wed then decrease farther to 2 ft nearshore and up to 4 ft offshore Thu as effects of offshore flow take hold.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 77 63 79 63 / 40 20 10 0 MCO 80 64 82 64 / 40 30 20 10 MLB 77 65 78 67 / 50 40 20 10 VRB 79 63 79 66 / 50 40 20 10 LEE 79 62 83 63 / 40 20 20 10 SFB 79 62 82 63 / 40 20 10 0 ORL 79 64 82 64 / 40 20 20 10 FPR 80 65 79 66 / 50 40 30 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm.



SHORT TERM . Leahy LONG TERM . Kelly AVIATION . Leahy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 38 mi98 min Calm 69°F 1014 hPa67°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 51 mi83 min E 8 G 8 70°F 70°F1012.8 hPa (-1.1)
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 54 mi53 min SW 5.1 G 7 71°F 75°F1013 hPa

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL5 mi30 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F66°F90%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAB

Wind History from DAB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmSW4W44E6NE12E11E8E7E7E6E4E3E5NE3E3E5E4E3CalmE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNE4Calm3NE7NE10NE8NE8E10NE8E4E8E3CalmCalmCalmS3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNW5NE7N56
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NE9--E8------CalmCalmSW3SW4SW4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida
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Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:14 AM EDT     4.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:27 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:41 PM EDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.212.13.34.14.54.43.72.61.40.3-0.3-0.20.41.42.53.64.24.33.92.91.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida
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Daytona Beach (Ocean)
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:31 PM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:39 PM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.112.13.34.24.64.53.72.61.40.4-0.2-0.30.31.32.53.64.34.43.92.91.60.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.