Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Daytona Beach Shores, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:54PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 9:08 AM EDT (13:08 UTC) Moonrise 7:56PMMoonset 8:46AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 425 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Today..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 425 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis..A high pressure ridge offshore the southeast u.s. Will weaken and shift east through tonight as a weak cool front moves into central florida. The front will stall across central to south florida and become diffuse into late week. Southwest to west winds today become northeast Thursday, then gradually veer to southeast to south and strengthen this weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday october 15th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 32 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 21 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Daytona Beach Shores, FL
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location: 29.15, -80.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 161141 cca
afdmlb
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service melbourne fl
741 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Discussion
Current... A mid level short wave trough is moving eastward from
the mid to lower ms valley, with it's flat base pushing into
al ms ga. Surface ridge has weakened and retreated se-ward over
the northern bahamas, ahead of the weak cool front which now lies
near the fl- ga border. Patchy light stratiform rain and sprinkles
have been spreading east across the northern half of florida
early this morning, ahead of the front. However, this activity has
been falling as virga and sprinkles, owing to significant dry air
aob 600mb 15kft. Otherwise, a light, veering s-sw flow is in
place with 07z 3am temps in the m-u70s.

Today-tonight... Axis of the aforementioned short wave trough will
move quickly across the mid-atlantic and SE states today and
offshore by this evening. A developing surface low will drive the
stalled e-w oriented front southward across nofl this evening, and
across the northern CWA late tonight, reaching near a orlando-cape
canaveral by sunrise Thursday. Modest forcing over the northern half
of the state will lead to highest rain chances (40-50) north of the
i-4 corridor today, tapering to 20 percent or less to the south.

Prospects for TS look limited as the local air mass will need to
moisten more significantly from the top down and moderate
westerly pre-frontal winds lead to a rather diffuse wcsb, leaving
little focus for mid-october convection. Nevertheless, MAX temps
should reach the u80s, with l90s expected along the treasure coast
and possibly southern brevard county as well.

Precip will end quickly this evening as forcing moves eastward
over the atlantic. Mid and high clouds likely to linger across the
cwa. Lows will reach the u60s north and 70s south.

Thu-fri... A weakening surface front near lake okeechobee Thu will
be accompanied by considerable clouds over much of the area with
some drying over the peninsula north of the shallow feature.

Current guid suggests a mentionable rain chc along with a storm or
two wl exist over S central fl and the adjacent atlc waters invof
of the weakening boundary with low measurable amounts of rainfall
possible. Thu night and through Fri deeper moisture with pwat
nearing 2 inches will overspread the entire area due to increasing
mid level winds from the tropics as a developing sfc low lifts north
across the central gulf. Some spotty morning showers should increase
in coverage by afternoon, along with the chc of a storm or two
given an overall destabilizing airmass with plenty of moisture and
modest mid level shear.

Weekend... Low confidence period in the forecast ATTM due to
uncertainty ascd with advertised low pressure over the northern
gulf sat. The lifting feature looks to be accompanied by a
leading flank of active weather in the form of showers, heavy rain
and storms across the peninsula during closest time of approach
on Sat and Sat night. Wl keep precip mention conservative at this
early stage until the timing and strength of feature becomes more
apparent. The feature currently has a 40 percent chc of
developing into a tropical low according to NHC through the next 5
days.

Extended... Wl keep sct rain chcs in the forecast early next week
with continued uncertainty on any favored area for measurable
daily rains due to placement and evolution of sfc features past
the departing gulf low. A cold front is shown approaching the
region by late tue.

Aviation Aviation...VFR. Patches of rain should increase in
the vicinity of the northern aerodromes as the day progresses,
with lee-sfb-dab the most likely to have some light to moderate
rain showers. 06z package has some tempo TS groups for those
sites, however, confidence is not all that high, and may shade
this back to tempo MVFR showers for the 12z set.

Marine Today-tonight... Light southerly surface flow will freshen
to 15-20kt as it veers sw-w today-tonight, with winds shifting to
light northerly north of CAPE canaveral late tonight as the cool
front oozes into the area. Seas 2-3ft near shore and 3-4ft offshore.

Thu-fri... Weakening sfc boundary over S fl should keep favorable
conditions with no headlines for wind or seas expected. Seas
around 2-4 ft thu. Onshore winds 12 kt or less expected thu,
increasing to around 12 to 16 kts on Friday with building seas,
especially over the outer waters.

Weekend... Saturday shows sly flow as the disturbance low over the
gulf moves closer to the area. Headlines are not anticipated this
weekend, however winds and seas may become briefly higher near
fast moving showers and lightning storms.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 89 69 80 62 40 10 0 10
mco 89 72 87 69 30 10 10 10
mlb 91 75 86 68 20 10 20 10
vrb 91 73 86 71 20 10 30 10
lee 88 70 84 66 50 10 10 10
sfb 89 70 83 67 30 10 10 10
orl 89 71 86 70 30 10 10 10
fpr 91 74 87 71 20 10 40 10

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Cristaldi
long term... .Pendergrast


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 38 mi84 min S 4.1 73°F 1013 hPa70°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 51 mi69 min S 9.9 G 12 74°F 80°F1011.6 hPa (-0.8)
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 54 mi51 min S 12 G 16 77°F 82°F1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL5 mi76 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F71°F91%1012.6 hPa
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL7 mi82 minSSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F69°F89%1013.5 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL13 mi79 minN 07.00 miLight Rain73°F73°F100%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAB

Wind History from DAB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS5CalmE4E7E10E9E95E4SE4SE4S3S4S7S5S6SW7S5S4S5S3S5S6
1 day agoNW4W3CalmE8E6E10E11E10E6E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3
2 days agoE46E8NE9NE75E73E73E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores, Sunglow Pier, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida
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Daytona Beach (Ocean)
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:44 AM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:04 AM EDT     5.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:24 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:20 PM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.32.31.50.90.81.12344.85.14.94.23.22.11.30.90.91.42.23.13.94.34.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.