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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 250 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Saturday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 35 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters rough.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 250 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis.. High pressure to move further into the western atlantic keeping southeast winds over the E gulf waters tonight through Saturday. A strong cold front will move through the area Sunday into Sunday night with southwest winds and seas increasing ahead of a line of showers and Thunderstorms. Strong high pressure will quickly build into the region with very strong nw winds and hazardous elevated seas Sunday night through Monday. Small craft should remain in port until conditions improve Tuesday.

FXUS62 KTBW 081950 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 250 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

DISCUSSION
Broad upper trough currently over the C U.S. expected to move eastward through the weekend while shortwave energy over the Gulf will continue to produce thick cirrus shield over the state.
Surface high pressure continues to move further in the W Atlantic as S Plains storm system develops and moves Eward producing SE-S flow over the area with warming and increasing moisture trends through Saturday.

On Sunday, longwave trough to come in phase with southern stream shortwave to further strengthen Deep South storm system that is expected to produce a robust squall line from the FL Panhandle into the C Gulf Saturday Night into early Sunday. Latest global guidance showing best dynamics to lift just N of the CWA to limit severe potential and SPC has a general thunderstorms on day 3 outlook, but if the trough is slow to lift parts of the Nature Coast may have strong to severe storms but there is still uncertainty in that solution and upcoming hi rez guidance should improve confidence either way. What we can expect is much needed rainfall for drought stricken coastal areas as high PoP showers and thunderstorms move ahead of the cold front over the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula Sunday into Sunday night.

Behind the front strong high pressure will build into the region on breezy NW-N winds and a cold dry airmass will move into the region Sunday night into Monday. Temps to drop below climate averages areawide but freezing temps are not expected at this time.

The frontal boundary is expected to stall in the FL Straits by Tuesday with easterly low level flow as another upper shortwave keeps WSW flow aloft producing and overrunning rain over the S FL Peninsula mid week that is expected to move Nward by late week into C FL as a low pressure area forms along the old frontal boundary for possible rain event late next week into next weekend.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Large BKN-OVC cirrus shield continues to move from the Gulf over the all terminals with FEW-SCT cu around 050k ft currently for VFR conditions. SE Winds this afternoon to subside aft 00Z tonight then increase again Saturday.

MARINE
High pressure to move further into the Western Atlantic keeping southeast winds over the E Gulf waters tonight through Saturday.
A strong cold front will move through the area Sunday into Sunday night with southwest winds and seas increasing ahead of a line of showers and thunderstorms. Strong high pressure will quickly build into the region with very strong NW winds and hazardous elevated seas Sunday night through Monday. Small craft should remain in port until conditions improve Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER
Southeast to south winds will keep the warming and increasingly humid conditions over the area through Saturday. A cold front will move through the region on Sunday into Sunday night with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms pushing across the area. Strong high pressure with cooler and drier air to build into the region with breezy northerly winds for possible fire weather concerns Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 64 81 66 80 / 10 0 0 60 FMY 64 83 65 82 / 0 0 0 40 GIF 62 81 64 82 / 10 10 0 50 SRQ 64 81 65 80 / 0 0 0 60 BKV 59 83 61 81 / 10 10 0 70 SPG 65 78 67 76 / 10 0 0 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Withlacoochee River entrance
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Fri -- 02:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:19 AM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:56 AM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:34 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:04 PM EST     1.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:21 PM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Withlacoochee River entrance, Florida, Tide feet

Cedar Key
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Fri -- 02:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:25 AM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:47 AM EST     2.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:35 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:14 PM EST     1.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:10 PM EST     3.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cedar Key, Way Key, Florida, Tide feet

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