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GMZ355 Coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Tx Out 20 Nm- 337 Pm Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.dense fog advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 9 am cst Friday...
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southwest around 15 knots, then diminishing to around 10 knots late. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet, subsiding to 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Showers with Thunderstorms likely early, then a chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Some Thunderstorms may be severe early.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming northeast late. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Patchy fog early in the morning. A chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..North winds around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 337 Pm Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
primary concern continues to be moderate to strong onshore winds and building seas this afternoon and evening as a storm system moves across the area. Small craft advisories remain in effect. Winds over the offshore waters should diminish below gale warning criteria early this evening. Therefore, the warning will be replaced with a small craft advisory through the late night to overnight period. Another concern is the potential for sea fog developing prior to front overnight through early Friday over the nearshore waters. Periods of unsettled weather should persist through the day Friday and Friday night as the front stalls offshore while north to northeast winds and elevated seas gradually come down. A weaker offshore flow is expected Saturday through Monday morning.

FXUS64 KHGX 302333 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 533 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Rain chances will be decreasing this evening into tonight. Then, a cold front will push through Southeast Texas late tonight into early Friday morning and is expected to stall somewhere close to the coasts. Areas of fog during the overnight and morning hours are still a possibility and could impact the visibilities during the morning commute. The low temperatures overnight to the early morning hours will be in the mid to upper 50s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and in the low 60s over the rest of the area.

On Friday, the front is expected to meander near the coasts as a weak coastal trough develops over the Lower Texas Coast and possibly moves into the western Gulf waters. This could keep decent low level moisture over our region and with weaknesses moving overhead during the day, may be able to result in additional periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Given the position of the frontal boundary and the location of the higher PWs, areas along and south of I-10 will have the greatest chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms and heavy rainfall could result in ponding of water along roadways and minor flooding over areas of poor drainage. Showers and storms will decrease from west to east during the night hours as the frontal boundary moves a little more offshore and drier air filters into Southeast Texas. The highs on Friday will be in the upper 60s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and in the low 70s over the rest of area. The lows will decrease a few degrees with the cooler airmass and will range between the upper 40s to low 50s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 50s over areas north of I-10, and the upper 50s to low 60s over areas along and south of I-10.

Cotto (24)

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

With the active southern stream jet and moisture remaining in place across SE TX on Sat, will likely keep some low POPs in for parts of the area...mainly for our eastern/southeastern counties in into the coastal waters. These rain chances should decrease by Sat afternoon as cooler/drier air moves in from the north.

Light to moderate N/NW winds to prevail on Sun, but as weak surface high pressure begins building over the region, winds will be becom- ing more variable on Mon. A second reinforcing cold front will then move down into the area on Tues. Currently, not expecting any major or significant POPs with this FROPA given the lack of moisture.

Otherwise, the main features for the long-term forecast will be the cool nights and mild days (lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 60s and 70s). 41

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 532 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

A messy aviation forecast for the next 18-24 hours or so. Main axis of precip should be passing east of most of the I-45 terminals in the next couple hours, but may see a few trailers along the coast linger. IFR conditions may temporarily improve for a few hours in its wake, but suspect ceilings will fall right back into IFR, and even LIFR territory overnight as combination of radiation and sea fog develop. Weak front will be making its way in from the nw late tonight...maybe reaching the I-69/US-59 corridor toward morning. Improving aviation conditions on the north side of the front. This boundary will stall near/along the coast Fri. Poor flying conditions should persist along and south of the front with low ceilings and reduced vsby near the coast with sea fog. A series of disturbances rooted aloft, in addition to LFQ of jet, should trigger sct shra along the coast toward mid-late morning - eventually spreading north to maybe UTS late in the day. 47

MARINE
Issued at 339 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Strong winds, elevated seas and scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could become strong, are the primary concerns the rest of this afternoon through early evening. The storm system responsible of this activity is currently located over west TX and will continue to shift eastward this evening, dragging a surface cold front late through Southeast Texas tonight into early Friday morning. Currently, south winds are gusting from 20 to 35 knots and this could continue through early Friday. Gale-force gusts are still expected through early this evening. Therefore, Gale Warnings remain in effect until 6PM this evening, then the warning will be replaced with a Small Craft Advisory through the late night to overnight period.

The secondary concern is the potential for sea fog developing prior to front overnight through early Friday. In collaboration with surrounding offices, a Marine Dense Fog Advisory will be in effect from midnight through 9AM. The cold front should move just off the coast into the nearshore coastal waters by early Friday morning, potentially stalling over the Upper TX coast during the day. The stalling front, combined with a weak coastal trough will result in scattered showers with a few thunderstorms during the day, mainly offshore. This front should eventually move well offshore by Friday night, leaving us with light to occasionally moderate offhsore winds into the weekend.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 57 68 50 71 / 30 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 65 73 58 72 / 40 30 50 10 Galveston (GLS) 67 70 61 69 / 70 50 60 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CST tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 9 PM this evening to midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ350-355.

Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ355.

Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ370-375.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ370-375.

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Alligator Point
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Thu -- 06:56 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:09 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:21 PM CST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:22 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:20 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Alligator Point, West Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Christmas Point
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Thu -- 06:56 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:09 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:19 PM CST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:22 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:20 PM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:57 PM CST     0.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Christmas Point, Christmas Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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