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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 1018 Am Est Wed Dec 6 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..Northwest winds 20 knots and gusty. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 1018 Am Est Wed Dec 6 2023
Synopsis..Fresh northwest to north winds will produce hazardous boating conditions, especially in the gulf stream. Boating conditions are then forecast to improve slightly from late Thursday into Saturday as high pressure builds across the southeast u.s., then moves seaward over the western atlantic. Winds and seas will increase again Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front.

Gulf stream hazards..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots and gusty with seas 7 to 9 feet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Wednesday, december 6th.
49 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 35 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 061555 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1055 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 1055 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

Morning Cape sounding and 915 MHz profilers shows strong west to northwest winds in the low and mid levels as low pressure deepens off the Carolina coast and high pressure begins to build in from the lower MS Valley. Gusty NW winds will mix down to the sfc for a breezy and cool day with gusts 25-30 mph. Bulk of the upper level moisture has been shunted south of the area so considerably more sunshine than yesterday. But despite that, the reinforcing cool advection will keep max temps in the mid to upper 60s, except near 70 Martin county. Little change to current forecast needed.

MARINE
Issued at 1055 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are occurring over the adjacent Atlc waters with NW winds 20-25 knots and gusts 30-34 knots over the open Atlc as low pressure deepens off the Carolina coast. Seas building 7-9 feet in the Gulf stream and 4 to 6 feet nearshore.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

VFR with NW winds 15 knots gusting up to 25 knots, decreasing aft 21Z to 5-10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 458 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

Today-Tonight...A mid-level trough will sweep across the Florida peninsula today, helping to push the surface high eastward across the southeastern US. An area of low pressure is forecast to strengthen across the Atlantic waters adjacent to the Carolinas as a result of this mid-level troughing as well. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and therefore, higher winds locally.It will be breezy today across east central Florida, with sustained winds generally between 10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph possible. Winds will remain out of the northwest today, leading to drier and cooler air from the north continuing to filter in across east central Florida. This drier airmass will help clear out the upper level clouds that have persisted across east central Florida the last couple of days, with clear skies continuing into tonight. Cooler today across east central Florida, with afternoon highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the low to mid 40s across the interior west of I-95 and in the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast.

Thursday-Sunday...Quasi-zonal WSW flow aloft will prevail through Sat. A fast-moving, high amplitude short wave trough will dig into the SE CONUS early Sun, then become negatively tilted as it sweeps through the eastern CONUS through Sun night. At the surface, the large post- frontal high pressure ridge settles over the SE CONUS Thu, then gradually shifts eastward over the western Atlantic this weekend. Light NE to E winds Thu-Thu night veer SE Fri-Sat while gradually freshening, increasing further out of the S-SW late Sat night-Sun ahead of a strong cold front, which sweeps across ECFL Sun evening.

Sensible wx over land looks dry through Sat night, followed by a rapid increase in mean PWATs (ranging from 1.75" north to 2.0" south) Sun. This will support scattered to numerous showers and storms rapidly developing and pushing across ECFL. Similar to Tue guidance suggests potential for strong to marginally severe storms across the northern CWA as @H85-H925 winds increase to 30-40kt and favorable 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50kt develops.

Temps steadily warm through the period. Maxes in the U60s-L70s on Thu, L70s north/U70s south Fri, and U70s-L80s this weekend. Mins Thu night L-M50s for all but the far north (U40s) and immediate Space and Treasure Coasts (U50s-L60s). Fri night mins U50s NW to M-U60s SE, and L-M60s inland/U60s coast for Sat night. Temps turn much cooler Sun night with mins ranging from U40s-L50s north to U50s-L60s SE.

Monday-Tuesday...Mid level ridge starts to rebuild north from the Greater Antilles into the western Atlantic early next week, which cause the flow aloft to back to SW early next week.

MARINE...
Today-Tonight...A surface low will remain north of the local Atlantic waters, with the surface high shifting eastward across the southeastern US today. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient locally, and winds and seas are forecast to increase as a result. Boating conditions will quickly deteriorate, becoming hazardous across the local Atlantic waters. Northwest to northeast winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots, with gusts up to 35 knots possible. Seas will respond by increasing to 6 to 9 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect across the Volusia and Brevard waters at 4 AM, followed by the Treasure Coast waters at 7 AM. The Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through 4 AM on Thursday, with the nearshore Treasure Coast and offshore waters remaining under the Advisory through 10 AM on Thursday. Dry conditions will persist through tonight.

Thursday-Sunday...High pressure settling across the deep south will cause NE-E winds to slacken through Thu night. As the high shifts seaward over the western Atlantic Fri-Sat, winds veer SE-S and slowly freshen, reaching 10-15kt Sat afternoon. An approaching cold front causes winds to veer S-SW 20-25kt Sun with scattered to numerous showers/strong storms increasing in coverage during the day.

5-7ft seas Thu morning drop to 3-5ft overnight through Sat. Seas rebuild to 4-6ft Sat night-Sun, possibly reaching 7ft over the outer fringes (near 60nm) of the local marine area Sun afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry air and an increase in winds will produce fire sensitive conditions today, with minimum RH values dropping into the mid to upper 30s across east central Florida and sustained northwest winds up to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Winds will weaken tonight and minimum RH values will quickly recover starting Thursday in developing onshore flow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 46 67 53 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 64 46 69 53 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 67 49 72 59 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 68 52 73 59 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 64 43 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 64 46 69 52 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 65 47 70 54 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 68 50 73 59 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ555-570-572- 575.

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Daytona Beach (Ocean)
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Wed -- 01:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:27 AM EST     3.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:30 AM EST     1.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:32 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:35 PM EST     3.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:54 PM EST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida, Tide feet

Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
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Wed -- 01:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:24 AM EST     3.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:34 AM EST     0.87 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:32 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:32 PM EST     3.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:59 PM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida, Tide feet

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