Sunrise 6:53 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 12:04 AM   Moonset 10:08 AM

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GMZ775 Expires:202404290930;;554944 Fzus52 Ktae 290130 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida big bend and eastern panhandle national weather service tallahassee fl 930 pm edt Sun apr 28 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-755-765-775-290930- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 930 pm edt Sun apr 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 am edt Monday - .
Rest of tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east to southeast near 20 knots by late evening. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Monday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Tuesday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming north after midnight. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters smooth. Wednesday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters smooth. Wednesday night - Northwest winds around 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth. Thursday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth. Thursday night - West winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Friday night - West winds around 5 knots, becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 930 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis -
another surge of strong east to southeast breezes is expected during from late this evening through early Monday morning. Starting Monday morning, pressure gradients will gradually relax. A small bubble of high pressure will develop over the northeast and eastern gulf on Tuesday afternoon, then persist through Friday. This will bring mainly light and gentle breezes for the second half of this week.

FXUS62 KTAE 290522 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 122 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 941 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The main update this evening was to nudge overnight wind speeds over the northeast Gulf enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory until about sunrise. The rest of the forecast is in good shape.

NEAR TERM
(Through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Surface high pressure off the Carolinas keeps southeasterly breezes in the forecast through at least Monday. Moisture in the lower levels is forecast to increase enough to possibly get a shower or two going Monday afternoon. Some of the hi-res guidance is suggesting the best opportunity for that being in the western Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama. These trends will be monitored, but a quick look at forecast soundings show enough moisture below H7 for a 10 to 20 percent chance for the areas mentioned earlier.

Temperatures tonight will be a bit cooler than the past couple of nights, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s with the middle to upper 60s along the immediate coast. Forecast highs are expected to reach into the middle 80s.

SHORT TERM
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A shortwave vorticity maxima across the mid levels that has detached from the main jet stream is expected to propagate eastward through northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia Monday night through Tuesday night. This will bring the weeks only rain chances to portions of the region across SE Alabama, SW Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. PoPs have slightly increased once again from yesterday to now 30-35% across the aforementioned areas.
This is likely due to the increased confidence of the event, along with slightly higher PWATs forecast in the 1.2 inch range. These PWATS will allow for more rainfall to reach the surface than previously forecast/anticipated. Showers will still remain isolated in nature, and QPF will generally remain around 0.25 inches or less.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The forecast area will generally return to dry conditions in the wake of the mid level disturbance that is expected to exit the region prior to Wednesday morning. In the shortwaves wake, mid and upper level ridging is expected to build back over the southeast.
The upper level ridge looks to remain in place over the region through the end of the work week before an upper level trough digs equatorward through the middle Mississippi valley, which will help stream moisture back into the area. Although the trough is expected to lift to the northeast, which will keep much of the forcing for ascent well north of the region, the excess moisture will help lead to some isolated showers and thunderstorms developing late Friday. Looking into next weekend, another shortwave impulse in the southern stream looks to exit northern Mexico and Texas, which could lead to some scattered thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday next week. Overall, as the upper level ridge builds over the southeast, temperatures will run much above normal, with highs climbing into the low 90s, and lows dipping into the low 60s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Southeasterly to southerly winds will increase somewhat by late morning with gusts around 15 knots possible until around sunset.

MARINE
Issued at 941 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Have nudged up overnight wind speeds across the northeast Gulf just enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory. One last nocturnal surge of E/SE wind will develop over the next couple hours and expand overnight across the northeast Gulf. It will then ease around sunrise.

From CWF synopsis...Another surge of strong east to southeast breezes is expected during from late this evening through early Monday morning. Starting Monday morning, pressure gradients will gradually relax. A small bubble of high pressure will develop over the northeast and eastern Gulf on Tuesday afternoon, then persist through Friday. This will bring mainly light and gentle breezes for the second half of this week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Light to moderate southeasterly winds continue Monday as moisture levels tick up the next couple of days. There may be enough moisture to squeeze out a shower or two, mainly over the western Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama Monday afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to continue with widespread wetting rains not anticipated through at least the middle of the week. Locally high dispersions remain a concern for across southeastern Alabama.
When coupled with the recent dry spell, this could lead to slightly elevated fire weather conditions Monday. Dispersions are forecast to remain high for portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 941 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Minor flooding continues along much of the Lower Suwannee River, though the river is falling in a characteristically slow fashion.
At Wilcox, the river recently fell just below flood stage, so was able to cancel the Flood Warning there. The Flood Warning continues at Rock Bluff, Branford, and Manatee Springs. Manatee Springs is forecast to be the last river forecast point to fall below flood stage on Thursday morning.

No new or additional flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 85 63 87 65 / 0 0 20 0 Panama City 81 66 81 67 / 0 10 30 0 Dothan 84 63 85 65 / 10 10 40 0 Albany 85 63 86 64 / 10 0 30 10 Valdosta 86 63 88 65 / 0 0 20 10 Cross City 86 62 86 62 / 0 0 10 0 Apalachicola 76 67 78 67 / 0 0 10 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

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Pepperfish Keys
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:52 AM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:44 AM EDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:16 PM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pepperfish Keys, Florida, Tide feet

Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:38 AM EDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:10 PM EDT     3.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Suwannee River entrance, Florida, Tide feet

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