Tuesday, October27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Horseshoe Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 6:54PM Tuesday October 27, 2020 12:01 PM EDT (16:01 UTC) Moonrise 4:12PMMoonset 3:12AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ775 Expires:202010272100;;916924 Fzus52 Ktae 271313 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 913 Am Edt Tue Oct 27 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz752-755-772-775-272100- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 913 Am Edt Tue Oct 27 2020 /813 Am Cdt Tue Oct 27 2020/
.small craft operators should exercise caution...
Today..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 20 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night.. Tropical storm conditions possible. South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 9 to 11 feet with occasional seas up to 14 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 20 knots. Seas 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet subsiding to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds in the afternoon. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 913 Am Edt Tue Oct 27 2020
Synopsis.. Boating conditions begin deteriorating later today as swells from zeta bring large wave heights to our waters. Winds and seas increase over the next couple days as the pressure gradient tightens in response to zeta's approach to the northern gulf coast. Tropical storm conditions are possible Wed night for our western and central waters. A tropical storm watch also cannot be ruled out in those areas in subsequent forecasts. Conditions improve this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horseshoe Beach, FL
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location: 29.2, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 271304 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 904 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

UPDATE.

No significant changes to the previous forecast for today appear necessary.

PREV DISCUSSION [701 AM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

The region will reside under the influence of deep-layer southerly flow on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. Weak upslope flow on the 305K sfc may result in patches of rain spreading inland this morning through the early afternoon. However, shower and thunderstorm activity will be more widespread in the afternoon hours as the increasing low-level flow associated with Zeta forces the coastal front/seabreeze inland with a little more momentum than usual. In fact, the most widespread convective activity may be across southern AL/GA where the coastal front catches up to the 305K boundary as low/mid-level flow begins to veer around the ridge. Essentially moist adiabatic lapse rates will preclude any severe weather concerns, though pockets of heavy rain will be possible in the increasingly tropical environment.

SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday].

Zeta should be close the north Gulf coast Wed morning at or near hurricane strength while caught in between a subtropical ridge to the east and large cutoff low to the west. The latter feature is expected to accelerate Zeta to the northeast and impart some southwesterly shear on the tropical cyclone. It remains to be seen how much of an impact shear will have on Zeta's intensity and structure, but a reasonable expectation leading up to landfall is for weakening (or halting intensification) and potential convective displacement to the northeast of the system's center.

The official forecast from NHC as of 2am EDT calls for landfall somewhere between LA and the FL Panhandle tip Wed evening. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement, but the former is slightly faster. Regardless of the exact location, our area will be primarily on the east side of Zeta's circulation. Therefore peripheral impacts are anticipated mid to late week, with the greatest potential in the western half of the CWA:

Hazardous marine and beach conditions - swells will produce large wave heights, rough surf, and a high risk of rip currents. Tropical storm conditions are also possible over our far western waters.

Rain - outer rainbands and tropical moisture will bring scattered to numerous showers, with pockets of heavy rainfall. However, the progressive nature of Zeta should keep the flooding rain threat low. PoPs are mostly along and east of Zeta's track, with the greatest coverage Thurs afternoon as a frontal system merging with Zeta, sweeps across the southeast US.

Winds - tropical storm force winds (at least 39 mph) are possible Wed night in the western FL Panhandle, southeast AL, and along the AL/GA border. Included gusty winds for the western third of the forecast area Thurs morning and along most of our northern counties in the afternoon when Zeta gains more latitude.

Severe weather - enhanced low-level flow combined with plentiful moisture should allow for some rotating storms associated with Zeta's circulation and outer rainbands. Therefore, isolated severe weather is possible, with a few tornadoes being the primary threat. The Day 2 (Wed to Wed night) Convective Outlook by SPC gives the western Panhandle and portions of southeast AL a slight risk (level 2/5) for severe weather and areas generally west of the Apalachicola River a marginal risk (level 1/5).

Some changes to the magnitude and timing of these impacts could occur over the next day or so as the forecast becomes more refined. The influx of moisture is going to make for warm/muggy conditions, with high temperatures in the 80s and lows in the 70s.

LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday].

Cool/dry conditions prevail after Zeta and its merging frontal system clear the eastern US Thurs night. A ridge, combined with surface high pressure temporarily builds over the area this weekend, before a longwave trough sweeps across the mid-Atlantic states and brings a reinforced shot of cool air from the northwest early next week. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s, and lows mostly in the 50s. Southeast AL and portions of southwest GA could see lows in the upper 40s Tues.

AVIATION. [Through 12Z Wednesday]

An MVFR/IFR cloud deck has overspread the region and will slowly lift to VFR from east to west through the afternoon. Showers and storms will spread inland from the coast this afternoon. While a storm will be possible at all terminals, the highest chances will be at VLD and DHN in the late afternoon.

MARINE.

Boating conditions begin deteriorating later today as swells from Zeta bring large wave heights to our waters. Winds and seas increase over the next couple days as the pressure gradient tightens in response to Zeta's approach to the northern Gulf coast. Tropical storm conditions are possible Wed night for our western waters. A Tropical Storm Watch also cannot be ruled out in those areas in subsequent forecasts. Conditions improve this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER.

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days.

HYDROLOGY.

Although we see rain return today through Thurs from Zeta, the progressive nature of the cyclone should keep the flood threat low. Pockets of heavy rainfall during that time is possible, but overall amounts over the next several days are up to about 1-2 inches in the western Panhandle with locally higher amounts. All local rivers and creeks are also in good shape. These values are subject to change as Zeta draws closer to the northern Gulf coast.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 83 73 86 75 84 / 30 20 10 20 50 Panama City 81 74 84 75 82 / 30 10 30 40 50 Dothan 81 71 82 73 82 / 60 40 40 40 50 Albany 83 71 84 73 83 / 40 30 20 20 50 Valdosta 84 72 87 73 85 / 50 30 20 10 50 Cross City 86 72 89 73 86 / 50 30 10 10 50 Apalachicola 80 76 82 76 83 / 30 20 20 30 50

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

UPDATE . DVD NEAR TERM . Harrigan SHORT TERM . IG3 LONG TERM . IG3 AVIATION . Harrigan MARINE . IG3 FIRE WEATHER . Harrigan HYDROLOGY . IG3


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 47 mi121 min E 15 G 17 77°F 1019.1 hPa (+0.8)73°F
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 49 mi61 min ESE 11 G 11 80°F 1019.3 hPa (+1.2)76°F
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 50 mi61 min ESE 18 G 19 79°F 1018.1 hPa (+0.7)78°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cross City Airport, FL54 mi66 minE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F74°F77%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCTY

Wind History from CTY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8NE7NE7E8E7NE5E5E5E5E5E6E4E5E4E4CalmNE4E5E5E5E4E5E8E7
1 day agoW3N6N4NW5N7N8N6N4N5N5NE4NE6E4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE5NE4NE4NE5E7E6
2 days agoSE6E5SE7E6E5CalmW5W7NW8NE8E4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Pepperfish Keys, Florida
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Pepperfish Keys
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:10 AM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:21 AM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:26 PM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:47 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.72.521.61.31.11.21.41.82.32.7332.72.21.71.20.90.811.52.12.6

Tide / Current Tables for Suwannee River entrance, Florida
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Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:04 AM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:20 PM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:41 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.82.421.61.31.11.21.41.92.42.8332.72.21.71.20.90.811.52.12.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current



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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.