Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Horseshoe Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:02PM Saturday January 18, 2020 3:38 AM EST (08:38 UTC) Moonrise 1:35AMMoonset 1:08PM Illumination 44% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ775 Expires:202001182100;;124695 Fzus52 Ktae 180805 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 305 Am Est Sat Jan 18 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz750-752-755-770-772-775-182100- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 305 Am Est Sat Jan 18 2020 /205 Am Cst Sat Jan 18 2020/
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..Southeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 15 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Rain likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters rough. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Monday night..North winds 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Protected waters a moderate chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 305 Am Est Sat Jan 18 2020
Synopsis..Advisory conditions will continue through this afternoon then briefly fall below headline levels overnight. On Sunday, winds are forecast to increase to advisory levels once again behind a cold front. While advisory conditions may pass by Monday afternoon, at least cautionary conditions are expected through the entire upcoming week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horseshoe Beach, FL
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location: 29.2, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 180801 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 301 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

NEAR TERM [Today].

Today, a northern stream shortwave will move through the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region, flattening the eastern CONUS ridge and nudging it eastward. Locally, this will result in veering low-level flow becoming more upslope this afternoon and evening as a warm front combines with the wedge front and lifts through the Southeast. Rain should hold off for most of the day across the region, but is expected to begin late this afternoon or evening across the Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Highs should reach the low to mid 70s under cloudy skies area-wide this afternoon.

SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday].

The cold front associated with the superpositioning southern stream and aforementioned northern stream waves will move through about half of the Tri-State region overnight, clearing the southeast Big Bend by Sunday evening. While there may be some scattered showers along the front, the bulk of the rainfall will be associated with the eastward moving isentropic rain axis preceding the front. Unseasonably cool air will move in Sunday night, with lows falling to around freezing. With winds forecast to remain around 10mph or so, expected apparent temperatures to be in the low 20s across the Panhandle, SE AL, and SW GA. Elsewhere, winds will make it feel like temperatures are in the upper 20s. Highs will struggle to reach 50 across the aforementioned colder spots on Monday, but will climb into the low to mid 50s elsewhere. Sunny skies should provide comfort in the unseasonably cool afternoon.

LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday].

Monday and Tuesday nights are expected to be the coldest of the week, with actual temperatures falling into the upper 20s. With the calm center of high pressure remaining well north of the region, winds will make it feel like temperatures are in the low to mid 20s region-wide. In fact, we may even reach Wind Chill Advisory criteria across portions of SE AL and SW GA each night. Tuesday afternoon's highs will be similar to Monday, maybe a degree or so cooler. By Wednesday, the gradual warming trend will commence with highs reaching the mid 50s in most locations, climbing back to around 70 degrees by the weekend. Another frontal system late next week will bring rain back to the region through at least the first half of the weekend.

AVIATION. [Through 06Z Sunday]

Cloud coverage will increase from west to east today. Ceilings will lower to MVFR across western terminals starting around 20-21Z then spread to terminals further east. Rain chances will also increase into the late afternoon to early evening hours in these areas then spread east throughout the night.

Expect temporary drops in visibility to 4-5 SM with passing showers. There is a general consensus among high-res models of IFR/LIFR ceilings developing across SE AL and eastern FL Panhandle zones after 4-5Z. These restrictions will likely be included in future TAF updates as confidence in timing increases.

MARINE.

Advisory conditions will continue through this afternoon then briefly fall below headline levels overnight. On Sunday, winds are forecast to increase to Advisory levels once again behind a cold front. While Advisory conditions may pass by Monday afternoon, at least Cautionary conditions are expected through the entire upcoming week.

FIRE WEATHER.

Increasing moisture and rain chances today will keep RH values above red flag criteria. Meanwhile, strong transport winds and relatively high mixing heights will lead to elevated dispersion values (>60) across FL Panhandle and SW Georgia.

HYDROLOGY.

Rain amounts associated with the frontal system this weekend will remain below an inch, and most likely below a half inch for most locations. Dry weather is then expected until the end of next week when another frontal system impacts the region.

The Apalachicola River at Blountstown is forecast to crest later today, and fall below flood stage on Sunday. Otherwise, flooding is not expected over the next week.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 73 56 66 33 54 / 20 60 30 10 0 Panama City 73 54 65 37 54 / 50 70 20 10 0 Dothan 69 48 55 31 49 / 50 60 20 0 0 Albany 70 51 60 32 49 / 30 60 30 0 0 Valdosta 74 57 67 34 53 / 10 60 40 10 0 Cross City 77 59 73 38 58 / 0 40 50 20 0 Apalachicola 70 58 66 37 53 / 20 60 30 10 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA . None. AL . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ this afternoon for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM . Harrigan SHORT TERM . Harrigan LONG TERM . Harrigan AVIATION . DiCatarina MARINE . Harrigan FIRE WEATHER . DiCatarina HYDROLOGY . Harrigan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 47 mi39 min NE 8 G 9.9 51°F 1028.9 hPa (-1.5)48°F
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 49 mi39 min ENE 13 G 14 59°F 1028 hPa (-1.3)55°F
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 50 mi39 min E 25 G 28 61°F 1027 hPa (-1.7)56°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cross City Airport, FL54 mi64 minno data10.00 miFair52°F49°F91%1029.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCTY

Wind History from CTY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE6NE6NE5------------------E12
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1 day agoCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4----N6--W4W5W4--W4NW4CalmCalmCalmN4NE5NE6
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmS4S5NW3W3--W7--W6SW5W7W4W5CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Pepperfish Keys, Florida
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Pepperfish Keys
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:19 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:28 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:36 AM EST     1.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:39 PM EST     1.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:51 PM EST     2.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.20.10.10.40.81.31.71.91.91.81.61.31.21.11.31.622.32.52.62.52.21.7

Tide / Current Tables for Suwannee River entrance, Florida
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Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:13 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:27 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:30 AM EST     1.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:04 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:33 PM EST     1.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:45 PM EST     2.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.200.10.40.91.41.71.91.91.81.61.31.21.11.31.622.42.62.62.52.21.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.