Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Horseshoe Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 5:39PM Monday December 16, 2019 6:12 AM EST (11:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:23PMMoonset 11:16AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ775 Expires:201912161530;;860407 Fzus52 Ktae 160740 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 240 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz770-772-775-161530- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 240 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019 /140 Am Cst Mon Dec 16 2019/
Today..South winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Tonight..South winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Rain likely in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of rain after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Rain and chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..North winds 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Chance of rain in the evening, then slight chance of rain after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet.
Thursday night through Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Slight chance of rain.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 240 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Synopsis.. Moderate southerly winds will become strong and northerly as a cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon and evening. Small craft advisory conditions are likely Tuesday evening through Wednesday night. Then moderate easterly winds are expected through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horseshoe Beach, FL
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location: 29.2, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 160747 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 247 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

NEAR TERM [Through Today].

Flow aloft will become southwesterly through today as a shortwave moves through the Southern Plains. At the surface, ridging will gradually be forced eastward with low-level flow beginning to turn southwesterly. Expect an increase in cloud cover through the afternoon, with rain likely holding off until the evening hours. Highs should climb into the lower 70s region-wide.

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday].

In the upper levels, a trough will move into the region by Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. High pressure will move in by Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight through Tuesday evening. Some strong to severe storms are possible mainly late tonight into Tuesday morning. Instability will be low but 0-6 Km shear will be 40 to 50 knots. The main threat will be damaging winds but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Rain and storms will move out Tuesday evening as dry air moves in behind the cold front. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s. Highs on Wednesday will be much cooler in the 50s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 30s and near 40.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday].

In the upper levels, weak ridging is possible Thursday and Friday, then a trough is likely over the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be over the region Thursday and Friday. A Gulf Low may bring some cloudiness and rain over the weekend. The best chance for rain will be Saturday and Sunday with POPs around 30 percent. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s. The coldest night will be Wednesday night with lows in the lower 30s.

AVIATION. [Through 06Z Tuesday]

IFR ceilings will impact ECP and DHN through the night. Visibility restrictions will likely bounce between MVFR and IFR at TLH and ABY through the night, while VLD may drop to MVFR closer to sunrise. Shortly after sunrise restrictions will clear through the day, with low ceilings returning towards the end of the TAF.

MARINE.

Moderate southerly winds will become strong and northerly as a cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon and evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely Tuesday evening through Wednesday night. Then moderate easterly winds are expected through Friday.

FIRE WEATHER.

Red Flag conditions are not expected over the next several days. Dispersion indices are forecast to be marginally high across the Big Bend and Suwannee Valley today.

HYDROLOGY.

The best chance for rain is tonight through Tuesday as a cold front moves through. Forecast rainfall totals are around one inch or less. Widespread flooding is not expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 75 61 74 39 55 / 10 40 80 30 0 Panama City 74 64 72 39 54 / 10 70 90 10 0 Dothan 74 61 68 35 50 / 10 70 90 0 0 Albany 76 62 70 37 53 / 0 60 90 10 0 Valdosta 77 60 75 40 54 / 0 30 80 50 0 Cross City 78 59 78 44 58 / 0 10 60 60 10 Apalachicola 72 65 72 41 54 / 10 50 80 30 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

NEAR TERM . Harrigan SHORT TERM . McD LONG TERM . McD AVIATION . Harrigan MARINE . McD FIRE WEATHER . Harrigan HYDROLOGY . McD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 47 mi73 min E 5.1 G 6 54°F 1020.6 hPa (+0.0)54°F
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 49 mi73 min ESE 8 G 8.9 64°F 1020.4 hPa (-0.4)61°F
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 50 mi73 min SE 11 G 12 68°F 1019.4 hPa (+0.0)62°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cross City Airport, FL54 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair47°F46°F99%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCTY

Wind History from CTY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE3E4SE3NE3E4S4E4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm
1 day agoSW3SW4W8W10NW10W12W7W9SW8W8SW8W5SW5W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN4NE5CalmE4N5N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE3CalmCalmCalmS3S8S5S7SW6W6W10Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Pepperfish Keys, Florida
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Pepperfish Keys
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:21 AM EST     3.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:46 AM EST     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:13 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:18 PM EST     2.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:50 PM EST     1.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.32.93.23.12.82.11.40.6-0-0.4-0.5-0.20.31.11.82.42.72.62.31.91.41.11

Tide / Current Tables for Suwannee River entrance, Florida
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Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:15 AM EST     3.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:40 AM EST     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:12 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:12 PM EST     2.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:44 PM EST     1.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.433.23.12.72.11.30.6-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.20.41.21.92.52.72.62.31.91.41.11.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.