Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Isle, LA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 7:32PM Sunday August 25, 2019 6:40 AM CDT (11:40 UTC) Moonrise 12:22AMMoonset 2:35PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ552 Expires:201908252215;;177624 Fzus54 Klix 250928 Cwflix Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service New Orleans La 428 Am Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019 Pascagoula To Atchafalaya River Out To 60 Mile Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest Ten Percent Of The Waves. Gmz550-552-252215- Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 428 Am Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 428 Am Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis.. The weather pattern remains unsettled this weekend and into early next week with several waves of showers/storms possible. Weak high pressure builds in by mid-week, lowering widespread heavy rain chances.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Isle, LA
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location: 29.2, -90.05     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 250929
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
429 am cdt Sun aug 25 2019

Discussion
Main focus in the short-term will continue to be flash flooding
concerns today stretching into early this upcoming week. A quick
overview of the synoptic set up reveals a persistent low to mid-
level low, slightly tilted in height across far eastern texas into
the NW gomex. With SE la and southern ms being on the western
edge of this weak low, ongoing southerly winds continue to pump
deep moist gulf air across the region, with rap13km analysis
indicating a large area of 2.3 to 2.5 inch precipitable water
values in place. Beginning with this morning, similar to
yesterday, a large outflow boundary will continue to slowly drift
ne across western areas, keeping shower storm chances in place
early this morning generally west of i-55. Hrrr nam3km guidance
suggests this boundary to aid in enough dynamic convergence to
help develop shower storms generally across all of SE la later
this morning through the afternoon and evening. While storm
motions this afternoon will generally be somewhat progressive in
and around 200 10 knots, boundary orientation evolution may pose a
risk for some back building training cells in a few areas. With
such anomalously high pw's across the region, have decided to go
with a flash flood watch today for all of SE la, with the threat
extending north and east later this evening through tomorrow for
southern ms counties.

One additional note for later this afternoon through early
tomorrow is with this slow eastward movement of the mid to upper-
low, some reflection may begin at the surface with a weak
surface meso low developing across NW areas. Depending on just
how prominent this feature becomes, some slight backing of surface
winds may develop, with in conjunction with persistent southerly
winds in the low-levels, SRH 0-3km values peak up around 200-300+
m2 s2 close to the low position. This may lead to a few isolated
quick spin ups in shallow cells that do develop and may need to be
watched, with the main area of this focus being along and west of
i-55 tomorrow evening night, spreading east across coastal ms on
Monday.

The latest 00z Sun 36hr extended run of the hrrr did illustrate a
potential issue that was first noticed last night, which is with
this low eventually drifting north and east across southern ms al
on Monday, tropical banding may set up anywhere across SE la and
southern ms due to unidirectional SW to wsw flow from the surface
to the mid-levels. This means flash flooding issues may likely
persist into the day on Monday, with the greater risks east of
i-55, where the wpc maintains a slight risk for excessive
rainfall. Main idea here is there is a possibility for locally
enhanced regions of flash flooding potential, but narrowing down
small mesoscale features responsible is nearly impossible this
far in advance. Watch for later forecast updates to reflect this
potential with time.

By Tuesday, this system finally stretches out in the mid-levels
and becomes absorbed by a passing weak trough and we return back
to more of a typical summertime pattern with afternoon hit-or-miss
shower storm chances. Temperatures also build back into the lower
90's for inland locations, helping build heat indicies back into
the lower to mid 100's. There is a possibility for some at or near
advisory criteria heat indicies Tuesday and Wednesday, but this
risk and or extent will be determined by how much surface
moisture remains in place across the region. Additionally, long-
range guidance still is on track about a passing "cold" front by
late-week, which may help bump temperatures down a bit. However,
just how much dry air works in is still not too clear, but a nice
relaxing break from the heat will be much welcomed! Time will
tell for now. Klg

Marine
An ongoing unsettled weather pattern will continue to keep high
rain storm chances in place through the day today and into early
this upcoming week. Main threats with any one storm will be gusty,
erratic downdraft outflow winds in excess of 25 to 35 knots,
dangerous lightning and a few isolated waterspouts, especially
late tonight and into the day on Monday for near coastal areas of
se la and southern ms. Conditions return back to a normal
summertime pattern on Tuesday and Wednesday before a late-week
cold front possibly dips into the northern gomex, shifting winds
from the north and lowering rain chances. Klg

Aviation
MostlyVFR conditions are expected to prevail early in the day, but
occasional MVFR is likely to mix in this morning, especially during
periods of shra tsra. Prevailing MVFR conditions with briefly lower
ifr due to lower CIGS and occasional vsby restrictions in shra tsra
is then expected to develop during the 17-21z period for the
airports along and west of a kmcb-knew-kgao line, and then either
during late afternoon or tonight for kasd and kgpt. Prevailing ifr
conditions due to lower CIGS is expected to develop around 03z
Sunday night at kbtr and kmcb 22 td

Decision support
Dss code: yellow.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 84 71 85 72 70 80 60 10
btr 83 74 88 75 90 70 50 10
asd 86 73 86 74 70 80 70 30
msy 85 76 87 77 80 70 70 20
gpt 86 74 84 75 30 80 80 40
pql 89 73 85 74 30 80 80 50

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Flash flood watch through Monday morning for laz036-037-039-040-
046>050-056>072.

Gm... None.

Ms... Flash flood watch from this evening through Monday morning for
msz069>071-077-080.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 7 mi53 min W 13 G 16 86°F
KXPY 10 mi46 min WNW 5.1 77°F 77°F
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 22 mi59 min SSE 9.9 G 13 83°F 2 ft1013.1 hPa75°F
SPLL1 - South Timbalier Block 52, LA / CSI06 32 mi101 min SSE 8 G 8.9 85°F
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 39 mi41 min E 7 G 8
PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's East, SW Pass, LA 39 mi53 min SE 12 G 14
KMDJ 41 mi46 min SSE 13 84°F 77°F
PILL1 42 mi53 min S 4.1 G 5.1 80°F 87°F1013.6 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 45 mi59 min S 6 G 9.9 75°F 85°F1013.9 hPa

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Fourchon, LA10 mi46 minWNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F77°F100%1013.9 hPa
Galliano, South Lafourche Airport, LA20 mi46 minN 07.00 miLight Rain75°F73°F94%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KXPY

Wind History from XPY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE4E5SE7SE8SE9SW19
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S12SW5CalmSE4E3SE5SE5SE3--SE6----------W5SE4
1 day agoS5SW14
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W6W6CalmCalmSE653E7W7SE4SE4SE5----SE6--SE5SE5S5CalmCalmS3
2 days agoSE5S35SE6SE6SW6CalmSE75SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Caminada Pass (bridge), Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Caminada Pass (bridge)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:22 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:18 AM CDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:34 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:50 PM CDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:30 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.80.911.11.11.21.11.110.90.80.60.50.30.20.10.10.10.10.20.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou Rigaud, Grand Isle, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Bayou Rigaud
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:22 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:10 AM CDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:33 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 03:34 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:37 PM CDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.911.21.31.41.41.51.41.41.31.110.80.60.40.30.20.20.20.20.30.40.50.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.