Wednesday, January29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Isle, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:36PM Wednesday January 29, 2020 2:57 AM CST (08:57 UTC) Moonrise 9:52AMMoonset 9:58PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ552 Expires:202001291515;;673707 Fzus54 Klix 290238 Cwflix Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service New Orleans La 838 Pm Cst Tue Jan 28 2020 Pascagoula To Atchafalaya River Out To 60 Mile Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest Ten Percent Of The Waves. Gmz550-552-291515- Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 838 Pm Cst Tue Jan 28 2020
.small craft exercise caution in effect from midnight tonight to 6 am cst Wednesday...
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the late evening and early morning. Showers after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Waves or seas building to 4 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds in the afternoon. Chance of showers early in the morning.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas subsiding to 4 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds after midnight.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 838 Pm Cst Tue Jan 28 2020
Synopsis..A low pressure system and cold front will move through the area tonight. High pressure will build in tomorrow, but will quickly shift to the east by Thursday as another low pressure system approaches the region. This next low will affect the area Thursday night into Friday. High pressure will then settle back in over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Isle, LA
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location: 29.2, -90.05     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 290414 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1014 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

UPDATE.

Potent shortwave trough and vorticity maxima, noted on water vapor and infrared satellite imagery over northeast/east Texas will approach the forecast area from the west and northwest overnight and move through the region Wednesday morning. While moisture and surface instability due to cool temperatures will be somewhat lacking, the amount of dynamical lifting and modest mid level cooling during the main bands of convection may support a few lightning strikes and some brief heavy rain banding. Updated forecast to add slight chance of thunderstorms mostly during the 2 am to 9 am period. Otherwise, remainder of forecast appeared on track at this time.

22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 333 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020/

SHORT TERM . The progressive weather pattern observed over the past week will continue through Thursday night. This pattern is being driven by an active southern stream that parked across the Gulf South. A series of fast moving shortwave troughs will continue to glide out of the Four Corners and into the Lower Mississippi Valley on the back of this southern jet stream. The first of the systems is currently pushing through Texas, and will drive a low pressure system through the forecast area tonight into tomorrow morning. A band of light to moderate rain showers is expected to sweep across the area as the low passes through tonight, and have likely to categorical POP in place to reflect this. The band of rain should first move into western zones this evening, metro New Orleans after midnight, and coastal Mississippi tomorrow morning. By the afternoon hours, some lingering cloud cover and isolated showers wrapping around the backside of the low are expected. These showers should end by the evening hours as some drier air and increased subsidence associated with a shortwave ridge take hold.

This ridge axis will remain in place through Thursday morning, but will quickly shift to the east by the afternoon hours. Another vigorous shortwave trough will begin to push into Texas at the same time, and some coastal showers could develop by the afternoon and evening hours. Rain should continue spread inland Thursday night and have POP of 30 to 50 percent in the forecast after midnight. Lapse rates may be somewhat favorable for isolated thunderstorms across the coastal waters, but a more stable airmass should keep thunderstorms at bay across most of the land based zones. Temperatures will remain near average through the entire short term period due to the continued zonal flow pattern in place aloft.

LONG TERM . No change in the pattern through next Tuesday. The system moving into the area Thursday night will continue to bring scattered to numerous showers to the region on Friday. Rain chances will decrease through Friday night as increasing negative vorticity and dry air advection takes hold. A strong shortwave ridge axis will dominate the forecast area on Saturday and Sunday with mostly clear skies and near average temperatures expected.

The next shortwave trough will move into the Gulf South on Monday and continue to impact the region through Tuesday. Increasing cloud cover is expected through the day on Monday, and a few showers may develop across the far western part of the CWA by the late afternoon hours. Temperatures will warm significantly due to onshore flow with highs above normal in the upper 60s. The cloud cover and increasing moisture Monday night will keep temperatures fairly mild with lows in the 50s expected. Increasing omega values will support the development of scattered showers Monday night into Tuesday.

AVIATION . Expect MVFR to IFR conditions to be the rule for most of this TAF period as a system moves through the area. Showers will increase over the area after 0Z. Low cigs and vsbys will be possible overnight. Conditions should improve by late morning Wednesday.

MARINE . A low pressure system will pass through Louisiana and Mississippi tonight. Winds in advance of this low will rise to 15 to 20 knots and have exercise caution flags out for tonight. In the wake of the low, strong westerly flow of 20 to 25 knots is expected over the open Gulf waters tomorrow. Small craft advisories will likely be needed during the day tomorrow. Seas will also rise to 5 to 8 feet over the open waters as these winds increase. Winds will remain elevated at 15 to 20 knots over the open Gulf waters Thursday through Saturday as low pressure system moves through the northern Gulf. High pressure building into the area by Sunday should relax winds to less than 10 knots. Seas should also fall back to 2 to 4 feet as these winds decrease.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 51 61 44 60 / 90 70 0 10 BTR 53 63 45 59 / 90 20 0 10 ASD 52 65 45 60 / 90 60 0 10 MSY 55 63 49 59 / 90 30 0 10 GPT 52 62 45 59 / 80 80 0 10 PQL 50 64 44 61 / 60 80 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 7 mi64 min ESE 6 G 11 57°F
KXPY 10 mi43 min ESE 8 G 15 61°F 61°F
42093 17 mi178 min 60°F2 ft
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 22 mi50 min ESE 9.9 G 16 64°F 3 ft1011.1 hPa58°F
KDLP 27 mi43 min ENE 9.9 G 15 59°F 55°F
SPLL1 - South Timbalier Block 52, LA / CSI06 32 mi118 min E 8.9 G 11 66°F
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 39 mi58 min 21 G 22
PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's East, SW Pass, LA 39 mi64 min ESE 17 G 18 62°F 49°F1009.2 hPa
PILL1 42 mi64 min E 5.1 G 7 60°F 48°F1011.8 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 45 mi64 min ESE 8 G 12 58°F 57°F1011 hPa

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Fourchon, LA10 mi63 minE 95.00 miFog/Mist59°F59°F100%1010.8 hPa
Galliano, South Lafourche Airport, LA20 mi63 minESE 810.00 miLight Rain59°F55°F89%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KXPY

Wind History from XPY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN10N6
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2 days agoE3CalmE6E6SE6SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Caminada Pass (bridge), Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Caminada Pass (bridge)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:47 AM CST     0.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:51 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:52 AM CST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:35 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:58 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Bayou Rigaud, Grand Isle, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Bayou Rigaud
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:41 AM CST     0.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:51 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:47 AM CST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:35 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:57 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.