Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Jamaica Beach, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 8:22PM Monday July 13, 2020 9:32 AM CDT (14:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:20AMMoonset 1:09PM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ355 Expires:202007132130;;773269 Fzus54 Khgx 130830 Cwfhgx Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx 330 Am Cdt Mon Jul 13 2020 Upper Texas Coastal Waters From High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves. Gmz350-355-132130- Coastal Waters From Freeport To Matagorda Ship Channel Tx Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Tx Out 20 Nm- 330 Am Cdt Mon Jul 13 2020
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of sprinkles in the morning.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 330 Am Cdt Mon Jul 13 2020
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Light to moderate south and southwest winds will continue through the next few days as surface high pressure prevails over the western gulf of mexico. Wind speeds will typically be highest offshore at night and in the bays in the afternoons with caution flags possible for the coastal waters if needed.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jamaica Beach, TX
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location: 29.2, -94.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 131125 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 625 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance] .

MVFR conditions due to low clouds and fog will gradually lift/dissipate through mid-morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southwest winds will transition to the south by mid-afternoon along with some gusty winds, mainly at KLBX and KGLS terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 402 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020/

DISCUSSION .

Hey, y'all heard that it's even hotter than July usually gets around here? And if you haven't, I bet it's real cool living under that rock, may I join you? If you were hoping for this forecast to discuss something other than the unseasonable heat, you are not really going to get it. If anything, there are some signs in the model guidance that our guarded hopes of small improvement in conditions by the end of the week will take even longer to develop.

In the search for silver linings though, we're still fairly confident that things will still edge back towards more typical July weather (albeit slower than we may have thought 24 hours ago). And with that, we should even see a handful of afternoon showers and storms crop up very late this week or early next week. Don't go looking for any widespread soakers, just a typical smattering of your quick-hitting, garden-variety showers and storms in the afternoon. There's still a lot of uncertainty in exactly how and when this transition happens (is this enough change to call it a transition? I'm not sure), but it still appears that it will ultimately happen. We just have to be patient enough.

SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday] .

Deja vu? Well, it feels like it because the heat remains the main weather story. Ridge of high pressure over the southwest CONUS continues to dominate the region, promoting dry and very warm conditions. As of 07Z Monday, some areas of fog/low clouds are developing, mainly west of I-45 in response to light winds and low- level moisture. Fog/clouds are expected to dissipate by early to mid- morning.

With 850 hPa temperatures ranging in the mid 20s Celsius this afternoon, surface high temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to 100 degrees. The end result will once again be heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees. It will feel slightly hotter across our western counties and far northeastern counties (towards the Pineywoods area), where the lowest dewpoints/RH reside. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire CWA from 11 AM to 8PM.

The amplified ridge aloft slightly weakens and drifts eastward into western Texas tomorrow. No major changes are expected other than another hot day. Temperatures will be one or two degrees cooler than previous days; however, highs are expected to range in the upper 90s, with a few locations possibly hitting the triple digits. Heat headlines will likely be needed. Winds may become breezy by late afternoon/early evening. It will be breezier along the coast; thus this may relief temperatures a bit.

LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday] .

The big struggle in the forecast discussion for the long term tonight is . finding something to say that hasn't already been beaten to death the last several days. Very little has changed in the big picture - the upper ridge that has dominated the last several days from the Four Corners is still expected to weaken some while it drifts east/northeast to the north of the region. On the south side of this ridge, we will likely see small spits of vorticity riding around the edge of the ridge that will eventually give us some slight chances at rain at the end of the week.

There are, however, some small nuances that might have some noticeable impact on weather in the area for this extended part of the forecast . and if you've been waiting for the way things have been to end, you're not going to like it very much. In short, some of the guidance *cough* Euro *cough* is not weakening the ridge as much as it had been when bringing it north of our area late in the week. Instead of a 594ish ridge, we're looking at a 596ish feature instead. It's a subtle difference, but it could be enough to slow down any slight cooling we've been looking forward to even MORE. This drags chances for widespread 105+ heat index and a smattering of 100+ air temps even deeper into this week before we back down from that ever so slightly (so slightly!). It would also increase subsidence in the synoptic environment, and so while there is still surprisingly strong consensus in a weak inverted trough riding in from the Gulf on Friday, the chances for rain look even less impressive than they did before . and they didn't really look that great before.

As a result, I've gone ahead and stayed dry on Thursday, and pushed off the earliest chance for any isolated showers/storms to Friday. And I'm telling you, if things evolve towards the Euro solution, even that isn't gonna happen. Eventually . EVENTUALLY . with such consistent guidance in having small shortwaves work their way along the bottom of the ridge . and with a consistent signal for at least some light precip, I've got to think we manage at least a handful of isolated showers in the afternoon at some point late this week. I'm just not quite sure exactly how long we're going to have to wait for it. Taking my deterministic forecast literally, Monday looks like the day. But that far out with such subtle features, that's probably not the best way to think about it. I'd much rather frame it as opening the window for some showers/storms to pop up Friday afternoon at the earliest, and continuing into early next week.

MARINE .

High pressure still prevails for the next several days. The pressure gradient should tighten enough to bring southwest winds at 10-15kts nearshore with 1-3ft seas and Offshore winds will be higher at times with seas 2-4ft. This will keep us up near the caution threshold, and may become strong enough to force a SCEC at times throughout the week. In keeping with daily cycles, the bulk of the Gulf waters will tend to see its strongest winds overnight. Afternoon winds will be higher along the coast and in the bays.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. College Station (CLL) 101 76 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 100 79 99 79 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 91 83 91 83 92 / 0 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. TX . Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Austin . Brazoria Islands . Brazos . Burleson . Chambers . Coastal Brazoria . Coastal Galveston . Coastal Harris . Coastal Jackson . Coastal Matagorda . Colorado . Fort Bend . Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula . Grimes . Houston . Inland Brazoria . Inland Galveston . Inland Harris . Inland Jackson . Inland Matagorda . Madison . Matagorda Islands . Montgomery . Northern Liberty . Polk . San Jacinto . Southern Liberty . Trinity . Walker . Waller . Washington . Wharton.

GM . NONE.

DISCUSSION . Luchs SHORT TERM . 05 LONG TERM . Luchs AVIATION . 05 MARINE . Luchs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GRRT2 9 mi45 min W 11 G 13 84°F 87°F1013.2 hPa
LUIT2 11 mi45 min WSW 11 G 17 84°F 82°F1015.1 hPa
GTOT2 13 mi45 min WSW 11 G 16 84°F 85°F1013.5 hPa
42043 - GA-252 TABS B 16 mi93 min SW 12 G 16 83°F1013.6 hPa (+1.1)
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 18 mi45 min W 16 G 18
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 20 mi45 min SW 9.9 G 14 84°F 87°F1013.2 hPa
FPST2 24 mi45 min SW 15 G 17 84°F 87°F1012.7 hPa
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 31 mi33 min WSW 12 G 16 83°F 1013.2 hPa (+1.1)81°F
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 33 mi45 min W 11 G 14 83°F 88°F1013.7 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 33 mi45 min W 8.9 G 12 84°F1013.8 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 39 mi45 min W 6 G 12 84°F 88°F1013.3 hPa
HIST2 42 mi45 min SW 9.9 G 15
SGNT2 45 mi45 min SW 13 G 18 85°F 87°F1013.6 hPa

Wind History for Galveston Pleasure Pier, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX8 mi41 minWSW 11 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F79°F80%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGLS

Wind History from GLS (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS7S9S9SE10SE9S12S10S13S12S11S8S6S8S9S10S9SW7SW5SW7SW7SW6SW5SW64

Tide / Current Tables for Jamaica Beach, West Bay, Galveston Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
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Mon -- 01:18 AM CDT     0.74 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:19 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:55 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM CDT     -0.04 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:12 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:19 AM CDT     0.31 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:30 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:08 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:25 PM CDT     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:32 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.