Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jamaica Beach, TX

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

The synoptic flow aloft remains southwesterly, so following Wednesday's embedded shortwave trough we receive yet another one on Thursday going into Friday. More favorable lifting mechanisms (closer to the shortwave and upper level diffluence) will be across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods, so expect rain chances to be higher in these locations compared to closer to the coast. Persistent onshore flow will help keep PW values near or above the 90th percentile (~1.60"), so we could see some locally heavy downpours at times in any of the stronger showers/storms. Going into the weekend, ridging aloft looks to build in leading to a decrease in rain chances and an increase in temperatures.

Speaking of temperatures, we start out at the end of the work week with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. With ridging aloft building in going into the weekend, we begin to see an upward trend in temperatures that takes us into the upper 80s to low 90s for highs and the low to mid 70s for lows by the latter half of the weekend. Based on some of the ensemble guidance and long-range NBM guidance...temperatures may remain in that range well into next week.

Batiste

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Ceilings will be on a decreasing trend over the next few hours with widespread MVFR ceilings expected along with IFR ceilings intermittently mixing in. Given the rainfall from Monday and the light winds overnight, conditions are favorable for reduced visibility due to patchy fog with the main window looking to be between 09Z-14Z. MVFR ceilings may stick around till 17Z/18Z before lifting back to VFR...these MVFR ceilings will likely linger at GLS throughout the day. Scattered showers are expected to develop during the late morning/afternoon hours and a few thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon around the I-10 corridor. For now, this has been covered with PROB30's at CXO/IAH/HOU. Any convection that develops will dissipate around 00Z, but MVFR ceilings will begin to push northward going into Tuesday evening. Winds will be predominantly southeasterly throughout the day with wind speeds peaking between 7-12 kt.

Batiste

MARINE
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Light to occasionally moderate southeasterly winds will persist throughout the week. Around and after midweek, an extended southeasterly fetch develops across the Gulf leading to an increase in wave heights potentially reaching caution flag criteria. The rip current risk looks to remain elevated throughout the week as well.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist throughout most of the week as Gulf moisture interacts with various upper level disturbances.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 66 86 69 82 / 0 20 20 80 Houston (IAH) 70 84 71 82 / 10 40 20 70 Galveston (GLS) 73 79 73 79 / 0 30 10 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.