Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jamaica Beach, TX

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Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:56PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 11:26 AM CDT (16:26 UTC) Moonrise 10:06PMMoonset 10:10AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ355 Expires:201908210430;;520938 Fzus54 Khgx 201521 Cwfhgx Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx 1021 Am Cdt Tue Aug 20 2019 Upper Texas Coastal Waters From High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves. Gmz350-355-210430- Coastal Waters From Freeport To Matagorda Ship Channel Tx Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Tx Out 20 Nm- 1021 Am Cdt Tue Aug 20 2019
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday and Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1021 Am Cdt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Onshore flow persists through the remainder of the week as high pressure continues to build into the the central gulf of mexico. Periods of scattered showers and Thunderstorms are expected over the coastal waters through the next several days, which may result in some brief gusty winds. Winds may increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend with an increase in shower and Thunderstorm activity.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jamaica Beach, TX
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location: 29.2, -94.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 201136
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
636 am cdt Tue aug 20 2019

Aviation [12z TAF issuance]
Other than some brief MVFR cloud decks this morning at kcll and
along the coast,VFR conditions are expected with tsra developing
late this morning and early afternoon. There should be enough
moisture along the coast to move inland to support scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms. Hi-res cams href seem on track
with these trends this morning so adjusted timing of vcts tsra
based on this but tafs already had timing close to new guidance.

We should have similar conditions going into Wednesday but less
convection.

Overpeck

Prev discussion issued 412 am cdt Tue aug 20 2019
Short term [today through Wednesday morning]
Radar has become a tad more active the last hour in the upper texas
coastal waters of the gulf. Showers are developing from galveston
east along the coast. This seems to be within an axis of higher
moisture per GOES 16 precip water product. Mesoanalysis of pwat
indicates an axis of 1.9 to 2.1 inches of pwat where these showers
are developing. There is also some surface convergence along the
coast with higher surface winds over the waters and calm winds
inland. Upper level analysis shows NE flow aloft with the center of
an upper level ridge over west tx. There are still some higher 500mb
heights over the area so convergence and moist unstable airmass will
need to overcome subsidence for storms today.

Available convective allowing models all paint a similar picture
with convection initiating along the coast as we are currently
seeing now on radar. This activity spreads inland towards houston
through the late morning hours and into the afternoon. Activity ends
late in the afternoon with the loss of heating. There will likely be
outflow boundaries that cause new development and propagation of
rainfall inland. Storms will likely be capable of brief heavy
rainfall, lightning and gusty winds. It does not look like a pattern
for severe wind gusts or flooding rainfall other than the street
flooding variety with rain rates of 1-2" an hour. Those rates
should only lasting for an hour. It does not look like this
activity should last into the overnight hours. Temperatures today
will be tricky due to the convection especially for areas along
the coast and houston. Farther inland temperatures should reach
the upper 90s again with the idea of cloud cover and showers
holding down temps slightly from the last day or two closer to the
coast.

Overpeck

Long term [Thursday night through Tuesday]
The upper level ridge that was overhead during the first half of the
week, should weaken and shift to the northwest by Wednesday morning.

Typical coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue
Wednesday with most of the focus for development along small-scale
features such as the bay and sea breezes and lingering outflow
boundaries. High temperatures Wednesday through Saturday will
remain in the low to upper 90s, but in general should be a touch
cooler each day with better cloud cover prevailing by the end of
the week.

The surge of moisture and associated vorticity MAX will shift from
the southwestern section of the gulf of mexico north towards the
upper texas coast Thursday. A surge of precipitable water values
between 2.1 to 2.5 inches will translate across the gulf and move
into the region, bringing the best moisture south of i-10 by
Thursday afternoon and keep the moisture in place essentially
through Saturday morning. This area of disturbed weather still
remains disorganized in the GFS and ecmwf, with an upper level
trough shifting northward and remaining overhead before
shifting eastward by Sunday. The nam12 is more aggressive with
this system, looking slightly better organized in the upper levels
and also dragging better moisture values up over SE tx in
comparison to the other global models. Therefore, more widespread
precipitation chances look possible as early as Thursday morning
over the gulf waters, spreading inland by the afternoon hours, and
continuing through essentially Saturday afternoon. At this time,
it still looks like the best rainfall accumulations should remain
over the gulf waters, but cant rule out a widespread 1 to 2
inches mostly south of i-10 Thursday through Saturday. Forecast
soundings do show an inverted v profile mostly during the
afternoon hours during this time period, so gusty winds could be
possible with any stronger storms that do develop.

Heights should be on the rise come Sunday, and the higher
precipitable water values lower back to less than 2 inches area
wide. The typical summertime pattern of diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms looks to return early next week.

Hathaway

Marine
A rip current statement for the risk of strong rip currents remains
in effect through the late morning hours today along gulf facing
beaches. Light to moderate onshore flow continues across the bays
and gulf waters this morning and should prevail most of the day.

Overall expectation is for a typical summer time pattern with
onshore winds increasing at night and decreasing during the day.

Seas should remain low through the next couple of days. We are going
to have to monitor a tropical disturbance that moves into the gulf
for the end of the week and weekend. The system at this point may
cause a brief increase in winds and seas. We are not expecting any
tropical development.

Overpeck

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 98 77 98 76 98 20 0 10 0 10
houston (iah) 94 78 95 78 94 50 0 30 10 30
galveston (gls) 92 83 94 86 94 70 20 30 20 40

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... High rip current risk until 10 am cdt this morning for the
following zones: brazoria islands... Galveston island and
bolivar peninsula... Matagorda islands.

Gm... None.

Aviation... Overpeck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GRRT2 9 mi57 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 87°F 88°F1016.8 hPa
LUIT2 11 mi57 min SSW 12 G 15 83°F 85°F1017.3 hPa
GTOT2 13 mi57 min N 8.9 G 15 80°F 88°F1017.3 hPa
42043 - GA-252 TABS B 16 mi147 min S 1.9 G 3.9 87°F1017 hPa (+1.6)
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 18 mi57 min W 9.9 G 14 88°F1016.5 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 20 mi57 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 86°F 87°F1016.5 hPa
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 24 mi57 min SSE 5.1 G 7 86°F 85°F1017.6 hPa
FPST2 24 mi57 min S 7 G 13 85°F 85°F1016.9 hPa
KXIH 25 mi32 min S 6 88°F 77°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 31 mi47 min ENE 1.9 G 3.9 87°F 1017.8 hPa80°F
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 33 mi57 min SSW 8 G 12 83°F 88°F1017.3 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 33 mi57 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 89°F 88°F1017.5 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 39 mi57 min WSW 1 G 2.9 88°F 89°F1016.5 hPa
HIST2 42 mi57 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 88°F1017 hPa
SGNT2 45 mi57 min S 6 G 8.9 88°F 87°F1016.9 hPa

Wind History for Galveston Pleasure Pier, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX8 mi95 minWNW 310.00 miFair89°F75°F65%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGLS

Wind History from GLS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12S13S13S14S14S13S11S12S9S9S9SE10S7S10S10SW4W6CalmSW5SW3SW3NW3NW3NE10
1 day agoS16S17S17S15S16S14S12S10S10S10S9S11S11S11S12S9S10S7S8S8S8S12S10S12
2 days agoS12S11S12S14S14S13S13S14S12S11S13S13S13S11S13S14S14S12S14S15S16S15S13S16

Tide / Current Tables for Jamaica Beach, West Bay, Galveston Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
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Tue -- 02:40 AM CDT     -0.47 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:24 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:13 AM CDT     0.65 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:09 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:14 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:35 PM CDT     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:13 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:41 PM CDT     0.59 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:05 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.