Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Buras, LA

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Mid/late week, we enter the cusp of a steady transition in our upper-level pattern as the lingering upper-level low over the four corners region finally ejects east, helping to break down the 582dm ridge over the SE US. This impulse rides ENE into the ArkLaTex region while downstream of this trough at the surface, we see a weak surface low reflection providing plenty of lift in conjunction with ample moisture/instability to support thunderstorms from Texas into the Ohio Valley region. As the ridge breaks down with time, the aforementioned mid-level subsidence inversion weakens/moistens lowering convective temps, bringing back the afternoon storm chances yet again. Confidence is increasing that we'll see rain chances creep up on Thursday, as storms develop primarily in the afternoon hours, but will even higher on Friday as we get more support of the front into the area to "boost" storm coverage along with prime, moist and unstable conditions across the area. Based on pattern recognition alone, as high pressure builds into the Midwest following behind the surface low over New England, and with the front draped south across the immediate northern Gulf coast, dry air entrainment into the backside of frontogenetic/diurnally forced convection will lead to the risk for damaging winds/downburst in any stronger, potentially severe storms (GFS soundings valid for 18Z FRI indicate around 1000-1200J/KG of DCAPE right before storms develop).
Something to monitor as we've apparently peaked early into the "summertime" convective pattern what feels like a month early given the recent large-scale regime leading to very warm daily temperatures 5-10 degrees above average.

Beyond this into the upcoming weekend, it remains to be seen if the front can press far enough south to allow dry air to work into the region and dry us out or the front washes out keeping just enough moisture over the coast to provide daily afternoon storm chances. Keeping low PoPs due to uncertainty at this time, but can safely say chances are looking best along southern/coastal areas, particularly coastal SE LA and adjacent marine areas.
Something that we'll fine tune as we get closer.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all terminals this afternoon into the evening hours with SCT to periodic BKN CIGs in the 3-4kft range. Low CIGs will be possible mainly around daybreak Tuesday, generally from 09-13Z dropping flight categories to MVFR.
Some potential for some ground/surface fog as well from KMCB to KBTR that could drop flight categories slightly lower at times due to low VIS, but impacts are expected to remain limited with any ground fog being light. KLG

MARINE
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Nearby surface high pressure to the east will continue to promote onshore SE, light winds through mid-week. This persistent fetch over time is expected to lead to a slow climb in seas for Gulf waters up to around 3-4ft with time, but winds will remain on the lighter side through most of the week. The next front and associated rain/storm chances increases Thursday, with greatest coverage/chances on Friday into Saturday, where a few strong to severe storms over marine waters will be possible. Main risks will be locally strong wind gusts to gale or stronger and waterspouts, along with dangerous lightning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 66 86 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 69 88 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 66 86 69 86 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 70 86 71 86 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 69 84 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 64 86 66 85 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.