Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 9:57 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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GMZ552 Expires:202405122130;;068974 Fzus54 Klix 120844 Cwflix
coastal waters forecast national weather service new orleans la 344 am cdt Sun may 12 2024
pascagoula to atchafalaya river out to 60 nm
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz550-552-122130- coastal waters from port fourchon la to lower atchafalaya river la out 20 nm- coastal waters from the southwest pass of the mississippi river to port fourchon louisiana out 20 nm- 344 am cdt Sun may 12 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect from 9 am cdt this morning through Monday morning - .
Today - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers this afternoon. Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.Tuesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 8 seconds. Wednesday - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 344 Am Cdt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
an area of low pressure will begin to approach the area today and winds will turn easterly and then southerly and rise ahead of this low through Tuesday.

FXUS64 KLIX 120844 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 344 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Upper ridging is beginning to set up over the eastern gulf and western Atlantic this morning. The upper trough out west is now starting to become oriented N-S as the upper ridge builds into the NW CONUS. This will eventually help to eject several strong disturbances eastward. The upper trough becomes progressive as this short wave exits the base of its trough Monday. This will help this system maintain its dynamics at all levels. The instability is not in place yet but will be as the synoptic warm front pulls through the area later today providing deep moisture and a strong ThetaE gradient that should stall from Mobile to the NW. This will help set the stage for late in the day Monday for training heavy rainfall bouts. Most of this activity occurs late Monday and overnight but there will still be sh/ts moving through the area today through Monday. The activity that moves through today through Monday will just prime the area for Monday. Some totals that are coming in range from 4 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts and WPC has also indicated a moderate risk of flooding rainfall over the eastern portion of the area. This looks valid but could move northward or at least be stretched northward depending on how this situation is resolved over the next 24 hours. We have contemplated a Flash Flood Watch to start either by noon or late in the day Monday. Since this is late in the day on Monday, we will discuss further on placement and timing as conditions become more clear before setting the Watch in play. The other contribution from this system will be the possibility of severe storms, and this looks credible as well so there is not disagreement with the slight risk of severe from SPC either. But the messy conditions today through Monday before the main system moves in will also need to be watched as one or two storms could become rogue along and after the warm front moves through today.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

This first upper trough actually passes the area by Tuesday and a cold front will move to the coast before stalling. This front also begins to back up Wed and this whole process looks to start over again as another upper trough out west digs southward causing H3 split flow across this boundary. This could present another heavy rain event toward the end of this week as well.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR through much of today but cigs will slowly fall into MVFR levels before midnight and into IFR around sunrise Monday. There will be some SHRA and TSRA around today and some terminals may get some of this activity. For today, the greatest chances will be found around MCB but BTR could also see this occur. The precip will be found at more locations tonight but should be mainly -SHRA.

MARINE
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Winds will begin to rise from the SE to around 15-20kt today as an warm front moves north. Although the general wind speeds will remain 15-20kt, Strong/severe storms along with widespread strong winds will be possible Monday through Tuesday as disturbances move over the northern gulf. The first system will move out by Tuesday and a cold front should stall along the coast or just offshore causing winds to temporarily develop from the north, but this boundary should move north by Wed causing southerly winds to re-establish.
There is a possiblity that strong disturbances impact the northern gulf waters again toward the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 78 65 82 65 / 40 80 90 70 BTR 84 72 88 70 / 40 60 70 60 ASD 84 71 85 70 / 20 50 90 80 MSY 84 75 86 73 / 20 50 80 80 GPT 83 72 83 70 / 20 60 90 80 PQL 84 70 84 70 / 20 50 90 80

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Bastian Island
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Sun -- 12:39 AM CDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:24 PM CDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bastian Island, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Quatre Bayous Pass
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Sun -- 12:44 AM CDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:01 PM CDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:43 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Quatre Bayous Pass, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

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