Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 4:50 AM   Moonset 6:42 PM

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GMZ452 Coastal Waters From Intracoastal City To Cameron La Out 20 Nm- 954 Am Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Rest of today - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 6 seconds. Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 6 seconds. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 6 seconds. Wednesday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 6 seconds. Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Friday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Saturday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 954 Am Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate onshore flow and seas of two to four feet will prevail today and tomorrow. A cold front will push through the coastal waters Thursday night accompanied by isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Offshore flow will develop behind the front Friday through the weekend.

FXUS64 KLCH 071747 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1247 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 958 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Another very warm and muggy day across the forecast area. PWAT value on the 07/12z upper air sounding from KLCH was near 1.75 inches. There was some dry air in the mid levels, so this will likely preclude any widespread shower activity today. Still, would not be surprised to see a few small light showers develop with daytime heating like the CAMs are showing. Otherwise, forecast is on track.

Rua

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Continued elevated winds have kept clouds off the ground this morning, but in a pretty solid low level ceiling. The combination of tropical winds and cloud cover is yielding very warm minimum temperatures in the mid to upper 70s this morning more reminiscent of August than early May. Both the breezy winds and cloud cover should prevail through most of the day. CAMS guidance has been overly enthusiastic about precip development through nearly the entire day one period and these were heavily discounted as unrepresentative. A weak boundary will push through parts of the ArkLaTex region through the day so not completely ruling out a stray shower or thunderstorm across parts of central Louisiana this afternoon in response to that, but wasn't confident enough in that to even include isolated PoPs at this time.

No significant changes to the pattern expected through Wednesday as consistent west southwesterly flow aloft will keep the mid and upper levels dry enough to prevent precipitation. The low responsible for the ongoing severe weather outbreak across the plains will continue to work east, but keep the pressure gradient tight enough locally to keep winds between 10 and 15 knots through Wednesday night.

A late season cold front will swing quickly through the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night initializing scattered convection as it does so. Owing primarily to the saturated ground, WPC has highlighted areas away from the coast in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. That said, forecast QPF accumulation is pretty unimpressive and this event does not look to pose a significant flash flood concern.

Jones

LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Seasonable and fair weather can be expected for most of the long term. As the period kicks off on Friday, the cold front will be off to our east with an area of high pressure building into the Plains.
Cooler and drier air will move in, with near and slightly below normal climatological temperatures. (MaxTs in the 80s, MinTs in the 60s.) Dewpoints will be in the 50s to 60s for the duration of the period leading to less humid/muggy conditions.

As the high pressure slips off to the east Sunday and into Monday, we will see southerly flow return to the area. While temps and dewpoints will rebound, they will do so slowly. Model guidance is still a bit murky going into the next work week, however we could see some low end rain chances with a weak coastal trough moving across the Gulf and with a disturbance moving over the Rockies and into the Plains.

Stigger/87

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The main story in the aviation forecast is the low ceilings with MVFR conditions to start the period becoming IFR overnight. At this point, winds are progged to stay up enough that fog will not be an issue, maybe just some minor visibility restrictions. IFR ceilings will again increase to MVFR by 08/15z.

Rua

MARINE
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A light to moderate onshore flow and seas of two to four feet will prevail today and tomorrow. A cold front will push through the coastal waters Thursday night accompanied by isolated showers and thunderstorms. Offshore flow will develop behind the front Friday through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 87 72 90 71 / 10 0 0 10 LCH 83 74 86 74 / 10 0 0 0 LFT 88 76 88 76 / 10 0 0 0 BPT 85 75 87 74 / 10 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Lighthouse Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:13 AM CDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:48 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:48 AM CDT     1.72 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:20 PM CDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:40 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:49 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:05 PM CDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lighthouse Point, Louisiana, Tide feet

Southwest Pass
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:57 AM CDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:48 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:32 AM CDT     1.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:04 PM CDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:40 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:49 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:49 PM CDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Southwest Pass, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

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