Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kaplan, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:34PM Sunday January 19, 2020 4:35 AM CST (10:35 UTC) Moonrise 2:13AMMoonset 1:23PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ452 Coastal Waters From Intracoastal City To Cameron La Out 20 Nm- 357 Am Cst Sun Jan 19 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Today..Northeast winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Rain showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 357 Am Cst Sun Jan 19 2020
Synopsis.. Strong offshore flow will continue across the coastal waters today, with small craft advisory conditions possible over the gulf waters into Tuesday morning. Light to modest east winds on Tuesday will be followed by a modest to strong onshore flow developing Wednesday ahead of an approaching storm system, with increasing chances of showers and Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kaplan, LA
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location: 29.31, -92.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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FXUS64 KLCH 190320 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 920 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

UPDATE.

As of 9 PM, surface observations indicate that the cold front is exiting the CWA with only the far southeastern coastal waters not yet having experienced the frontal passage. Increased mixing along and ahead of the front have dissipated the sea fog over the inner coastal waters and the Dense Fog Advisory has been expired.

Rainfall will continue to end from NW to SE over the next 6-9 hours as the front continues to progress SE. The increasing surface pressure gradient will result in a subsequent increase in wind speeds during the overnight hours. These increasing northerly winds will advect cooler and drier air into the forecast area which will result in temperatures falling into upper 30s to mid 40s by early morning. Overall, the inherited forecast depicts these conditions fairly well and only minor adjustments to hourly weather elements are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 555 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/

DISCUSSION . 00Z Taf issuance.

AVIATION . Radar showing a wide swat of showers and thunderstorms over SE TX, and most of SW and SC LA ahead and along the cold front. The front, which has passed AEX and approaching BPT, will continue to move southeast tonight. The precipitation has ended at AEX, along with ceilings rising above 3000ft. For the remainder of the sites, MVFR to IFR ceilings along with SHRA/TSRA through 01-02z for BPT/LCH, and 02-03z for LFT/ARA. Post frontal NNW winds will slowly become N and NNE by Sunday morning, and increase to near 16-19 kts with gusts over 25 kts by 15z Sunday.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 336 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/

SYNOPSIS . A cold front will move out of the forecast area early this evening ending the above normal and humid conditions, along with ending the sea fog potential. Some of the storms this afternoon will produce occasional cloud to ground lightning, brief heavy downpours, and wind gusts to near 30 mph. An air mass with Canadian origin behind the front will bring much colder and drier conditions with a possible light freeze and frost for a good part of the forecast area during the coldest period, Monday night into Tuesday morning. Rain chances increase again in the middle to latter part of the week with some potential for locally heavy rainfall by late Thursday.

Rua

DISCUSSION . The anticipated Canadian cold front is located across the forecast area as of 3 pm from just northwest of Alexandria to just northwest of Beaumont, with forcing and ample moisture and instability ahead of it producing widespread convection with embedded thunderstorms. This cold front will continue moving steadily to the southeast and will be out of the forecast area during the early evening hours. A few robust storms during the afternoon hours may allow for occasional cloud to ground lightning, brief gusty winds, and locally heavy down pours.

Frontal inversion during the night looks to keep clouds in, along with a chance of post frontal showers, before a deeper northwest flow and drier air moves in by Sunday morning to clear skies. Winds will also be on the brisk side behind the front into Sunday.

A strong Canadian high pressure system will slide down from the Canadian prairies and into the middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday then to the Mid-Atlantic area by Wednesday. As the high ridges into the forecast area it will bring much colder and drier air that will turn conditions from much above seasonal norms to below. The coldest episode during this period looks to be on Monday night into Tuesday morning when the center of the high will make its closest approach to the forecast area. Lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s with a light freeze, along with patchy frost, down to the I-10 corridor.

A slight warming trend will be noted on Wednesday as the ridges moves off allowing for more of a east to southeast flow to take place over the forecast area.

Looks like the rain chances return during Wednesday also, that will continue through Thursday into early Friday. Still some differences in the details on how guidance is handling the system that will be affecting the region.

By Thursday, GFS develops a deeper surface low, further to the north across the Southern Plains, that brings highly anomalous moisture and a warm sector across the forecast area, which could lead to strong convection and locally heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has a weaker surface low that is closer to the northern Gulf coast, that would keep higher moisture values and the true warm sector offshore. The ensembles are in the middle of these two 18/12Z deterministic runs. Therefore, will stay close to previous forecast and close to the national blend of models until better agreement develops.

Rua

MARINE . A cold front will move across the coastal waters this evening with showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it. Some of the storms will bring occasional cloud to ground lightning. Ahead to the front, there will be a small window for the continuation of dense sea fog, mainly east of Cameron.

Behind the front, good cold air advection will be noted, along with an increase in the pressure gradient over the northwest Gulf of Mexico, and this looks to bring a duration of brisk north winds in the 20 to 25 knot range, with higher gusts around 35 knots through early Monday. Therefore, a small craft advisory has been issued to cover this.

Tide levels will also lower and go below astronomical predicted levels as the strong offshore winds develop. At this time, guidance shows actual tide levels lowering to around (-0.5) MLLW, which does not reach the local criteria for a low water advisory.

Winds will begin to decrease some on Monday into Tuesday as high pressure settles over the region. Winds will increase again and become onshore Wednesday into Thursday as the high moves away and low pressure will develop over the region.

Rua

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. AEX 37 54 32 51 / 20 0 0 0 LCH 43 55 36 56 / 60 0 0 0 LFT 42 53 36 52 / 80 0 0 0 BPT 44 56 38 58 / 50 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. TX . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ452-455-472- 475.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ450-470.

Small Craft Exercise Caution through Sunday afternoon for GMZ430- 432.

Small Craft Exercise Caution through late Sunday night for GMZ435.



PUBLIC . 26


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRWL1 - 8766072 - Fresh Water Canal Locks, LA 20 mi53 min NNW 16 G 26 56°F 69°F1023.3 hPa
KSCF 36 mi20 min N 18 G 25 61°F 55°F
CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA 55 mi47 min NNE 19 G 25 55°F 65°F1022.8 hPa

Wind History for Calcasieu Pass, LA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KVNP

Wind History from VNP (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE8E10E9E7E7E6E6SE5SE6SE64SE4SE8SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Lighthouse Point, Louisiana
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Lighthouse Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:11 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:41 AM CST     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:09 PM CST     1.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:21 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:58 PM CST     1.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:34 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:55 PM CST     1.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.20.50.91.11.21.21.21.21.11.11.11.11.21.21.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Southwest Pass, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Southwest Pass
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:11 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:25 AM CST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:20 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:53 PM CST     1.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:34 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:42 PM CST     0.90 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:39 PM CST     0.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.3-0-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.20.10.40.70.911110.90.90.90.90.90.90.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.