Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kaplan, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:10PM Thursday July 16, 2020 11:44 AM CDT (16:44 UTC) Moonrise 1:49AMMoonset 3:44PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ452 Coastal Waters From Intracoastal City To Cameron La Out 20 Nm- 1031 Am Cdt Thu Jul 16 2020
Rest of today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 1031 Am Cdt Thu Jul 16 2020
Synopsis.. A light to moderate southerly flow today will continue across the coastal waters. An upper level trough moving over the region will result in showers and Thunderstorms through tonight. Winds becoming southeasterly by the end of the week as high pressure becomes established across the southeast states. This will also continue the chance for showers and Thunderstorms in the coastal waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kaplan, LA
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location: 29.31, -92.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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FXUS64 KLCH 161133 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 633 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

DISCUSSION. For the 16/12Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION. An expected increase in moisture along with an inverted trough moving toward the forecast area are expected to help increase shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Activity is expected to start to develop shortly after 16/18Z over south central Louisiana then move westward for the remainder of the afternoon into early evening. Away from convection, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 347 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020/

DISCUSSION .

Short Term [Today through Friday]

This morning's GOES-16 upper level water vapor imagery channel indicates that an inverted trough is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regional radar imagery shows that convection has developed along coastal southeastern Louisiana downstream of this trough axis where there is greater deep layer support for ascent. This inverted trough is expected to progress southwestward into the western Gulf of Mexico throughout today into Friday. This will contribute to increased support for ascent and in turn increased chances for convection across the forecast area today into Friday.

Convection is expected to develop across southeastern Louisiana by mid to late morning before expanding and progressing westward during the afternoon hours. Some of the CAM guidance has convection reaching as far west as southeast Texas by early this evening before shifting offshore during the overnight hours. While there will be abundant instability available for convection, weak mid and upper level winds will contribute to weak wind shear across the forecast area and severe weather is not expected. However, the potential for some storms producing gusty winds cannot be entirely ruled out this afternoon. The weak mid and upper level winds will likely result in slow storm motions. These slow storm motions combined with warm deep cloud layers will support the potential for locally heavy rainfall rates in convection this afternoon. However, 00Z HREF is showing localized 6 hourly maximum rainfall values ranging only around 3 to 5 inches. Therefore, the main potential for impacts for minor flooding should be confined to urban areas if these higher rainfall values fall over in a short period of time.

The potential for greater cloud cover and more widespread convection should limit afternoon temperatures and in turn maximum heat index values. Heat index values today look like they will be similar to yesterday with values ranging from 100 to 107. While a Heat Advisory will once again not be needed today, precautions to avoid heat illness should continue to be taken.

The inverted trough is expected to be centered over the forecast area Friday and will continue to provide upper level support for ascent and convective development. However, it looks like the Gulf breeze will play a greater role in providing surface forcing for ascent. Therefore, convection is expected to develop offshore and along the coast during the morning hours before expanding inland during the afternoon hours. Convection should then diminish around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Similar to today, heat index values are expected to generally range from 100 to 107 degrees during the afternoon hours.

Long Term [Saturday through Wednesday]

Deterministic and ensemble guidance is in good agreement that 500 hPa heights will begin to decrease through the weekend and into next week as the inverted trough continues to progress westward across the Gulf of Mexico and the 591 dam ridge shifts gradually northward. There are now even some hints of a northern stream progressing far enough southward and breaking down the upper level ridge by the later half of next week. These decreasing upper level heights will result in a slightly more favorable environment for ascent compared to the past seven days. This more favorable environment combined with increasing deep layer moisture will contribute to the return of a more typical summertime diurnal pattern of showers and thunderstorms. This convection will be forced primarily by mesoscale boundaries formed by different heating and therefore chances for convection will be maximized during the afternoon hours each day. Afternoon convection is expected to slowly become more widespread during the early to middle part of next week as PWATs increase to around 2 inches (which is roughly the 75th percentile of KLCH soundings for late July in the SPC sounding database). Temperatures throughout the long term period are expected to return to climatological normals for late July with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

MARINE .

A light to moderate southerly flow today will continue across the coastal waters today. An inverted upper level trough moving over the region will result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Winds will shift more southeasterly beginning on Friday and continuing through the weekend as high pressure becomes established across the southeast states. This will also result in a return for chances of showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. AEX 95 74 94 73 / 50 30 30 0 LCH 92 76 90 75 / 50 40 50 0 LFT 93 76 93 75 / 60 30 50 0 BPT 94 78 91 77 / 20 20 40 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. TX . None. GM . None.

AVIATION . 07


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRWL1 - 8766072 - Fresh Water Canal Locks, LA 20 mi105 min 89°F
CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA 55 mi105 min 87°F

Wind History for Calcasieu Pass, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KVNP

Wind History from VNP (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Lighthouse Point, Louisiana
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Lighthouse Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:46 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:04 AM CDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 04:42 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:51 PM CDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.61.71.81.81.71.71.71.71.61.61.51.41.10.80.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.100.30.61

Tide / Current Tables for Southwest Pass, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Southwest Pass
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:46 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:48 AM CDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 04:42 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:35 PM CDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.21.31.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.31.31.31.210.80.50.2-0-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.