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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 909 Pm Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday..South winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots late. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy late. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning and early afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Saturday..South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers in the afternoon. A chance of Thunderstorms late.
Saturday night..West winds around 15 knots, becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots late in the evening, then becoming north around 30 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming rough late in the evening, then becoming very rough after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots, diminishing to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters rough, becoming choppy in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth after midnight.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 909 Pm Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
strengthening southeasterly to southerly winds will persist through Friday resulting in gradually increasing seas. Isolated rain showers are possible Friday, but will increase in coverage and strength on Saturday as a cold front pushes through the waters. Moderate to strong northwesterly winds will develop behind the front with gusts up to gale force possible Saturday night into Sunday morning along with building seas. Abnormally low tides are possible Sunday morning in the bays due to the strong northwesterly winds. Winds and seas subside on Sunday.

FXUS64 KHGX 080557 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1157 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

With the eastward motion of surface high pressure over the past 24 hours, a resumption of southeasterly low level flow has allowed for steady increases in moisture across the area this afternoon.
Most surface stations now report dew point values in the low to mid 50s, a sharp increase from the values in the 30s we have seen over the past few days. This increase in moisture will help drive relatively widespread low to mid level stratus decks developing overnight, which, combined with WAA due to the onshore flow regime, should keep low temperatures confined to the upper 50s/near 60. Likewise, increases in temperature are expected tomorrow afternoon with highs approaching the upper 70s across much of the area. Combined with expected dew point increases to the mid to upper 60s, conditions should feel spring-like by the afternoon. The approach of a midlevel shortwave trough by the afternoon hours should result in the development of some scattered showers, particularly to the south of the I-10 corridor. However, rainfall amounts associated with any showers that develop should be minimal.

Our main focus for this forecast period continues to surround the approach of a strong surface cold front on Saturday and the potential for more widespread rainfall associated with its passage. Current timing expectations remain similar to that of the previous forecast package with the boundary moving through the northern zones in the early to mid afternoon and pushing offshore a few hours after sunset. While moisture should remain abundant and instability will be relatively sufficient with SBCAPE values in the vicinity of 1500 J/kg, the presence of a capping version currently apparent in the most recent short term guidance will be difficult to overcome. Thus, while there remains a conditional severe weather threat should the inversion layer erode, the most likely outcome for most will be a band of showers and storms along the front that will have the potential to produce some brief downpours. In general, the potential for a stronger storm remains highest to the NE of the Houston Metro/I-45 corridor, but severe weather chances appear much more favorable for locations well to our east (Arklatex region).

Following the frontal passage, we continue to anticipate the development of relatively strong winds, with wind speeds in excess of 20mph possible while gusts may reach 30-35 mph at times.
As such, we will need to monitor for the potential for a Wind Advisory as the event draws nearer. The frontal passage will also be accompanied by a sharp drop in temperatures, with Saturday night's lows returning to the 40s for most locations.

Cady

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Cold/dry weather will prevail Sun in the wake of the cold front with surface high pressure atop the region and NW winds prevailing aloft.
This could be the coldest day of this forecast period, with highs in the 50s through much of the day on Sun. And going into Sun night/Mon morning, will expect widespread low temperatures in the 30s for much of SE TX (with parts of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods experiencing a light freeze). Thereafter, look for a slow warming trend as the high begins to slowly move east through mid week as models indicate a re- turn of a more W/SW flow at the mid to upper levels. The progged up- coming upcoming pattern aloft does hint at the possibility of a weak embedded perturbation (or two), but there may not be enough moisture for any mention of significant rainfall totals until Weds/Thurs. 41

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1148 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Conditions will gradually deteriorate overnight with MVFR to IFR conditions beginning to move in from the southwest. IFR ceilings looks more likely in the morning hours, with the best probabilities for terminals north of IAH. A brief period of VFR ceilings will be possible by late Friday afternoon/early evening; however, low ceilings will quickly return across all terminals in the evening. In terms of precipitation, a few showers will be possible in the morning hours. Isolated thunder will be possible for terminals along and south of I-10 in the afternoon. Will continue with VCSH, VCTS and PROB30 in TAFs for now given moderate confidence in timing and coverage of any showers/storms. Lastly, gusty southerly winds can be expected from mid-morning through early evening as a low-level jet moves overhead. Gusts around 20-25 knots can be expected in the afternoon.

JM

MARINE
Issued at 320 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Onshore winds will prevail the next couple of days ahead of the next approaching weather system. Winds could reach SCEC/SCA thresholds as early as tonight...but more likely Fri. These increased winds should also increase the risk for rip currents tomorrow.

A strong cold front remains on track to push through the waters late Sat with moderate to strong NW winds in its wake. A Small Craft Adv- isory is likely from Saturday evening into Sunday morning but a Gale Watch may be needed as well. Forecasts are indicating that gusts at/ near gale force will be possible over the Gulf waters. Additionally, low water levels will be possible in the bays during low tide on Sun morning from the prolonged strong northerly winds. Wave heights will also increase due to the strong offshore flow, and peak in the 7-9ft range on Sat night/Sun morning. Winds and seas should gradually sub- side on Sun with onshore flow returning by Monday afternoon. 41

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 62 76 67 75 / 0 10 0 30 Houston (IAH) 59 76 68 78 / 10 30 0 50 Galveston (GLS) 64 71 66 72 / 10 40 10 40

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Texas City
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Thu -- 12:14 AM CST     1.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:50 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:00 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:25 AM CST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:36 PM CST     0.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:55 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:20 PM CST     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Texas City, Turning Basin, Texas, Tide feet

Bolivar Roads
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Thu -- 12:04 AM CST     0.71 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:50 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:47 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:00 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:18 AM CST     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:16 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:54 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:21 PM CST     1.03 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:27 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:59 PM CST     -0.12 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:27 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots

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