Thursday, September24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Crescent City, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:19PM Thursday September 24, 2020 8:03 PM EDT (00:03 UTC) Moonrise 1:59PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Expires:202009250945;;301672 Fzus52 Kjax 241817 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 217 Pm Edt Thu Sep 24 2020 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-250945- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 217 Pm Edt Thu Sep 24 2020
.small craft exercise caution...
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots towards daybreak. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 217 Pm Edt Thu Sep 24 2020
Synopsis.. Waves will continue to slowly fall below 7 ft through the evening hours, while southeast winds around 15 to 20 knots prevail tonight and into Friday ahead of our next cold front. A more active pattern for showers and Thunderstorms is setting up as a series of cold fronts roll across the coastal waters the next few days, with the strongest front on Tuesday. Chance to slight chance for showers and Thunderstorms anticipated through Tuesday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 22, 2020 at 1200 utc... 56 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 65 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 80 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 90 nautical miles east of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crescent City, FL
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location: 29.39, -81.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 242330 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 730 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail for most of tonight. Late night MVFR or IFR conditions due to fog/low clouds are possible 08z-12z inland . mainly at GNV and VQQ. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday . more likely after 17z.

PREV DISCUSSION [259 PM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Late morning surface analysis depicted strengthening high pressure (1018 millibars) centered between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda. Meanwhile, the remnant low pressure center (1004 millibars) that was once Tropical Storm Beta was exiting the lower Mississippi Valley and was progressing east-northeastward towards the Tennessee Valley Aloft. deep-layered ridging was centered over the Bahamas. Otherwise, a shortwave trough that is weakening over the Ohio Valley will be re-invigorated by a more potent upstream shortwave that is diving southeastward across the Upper Midwest. GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water Vapor imagery depicts a gradually moistening air mass over our region, with PWATs still below 1.5 inches area-wide. A ribbon of deep tropical moisture is advecting northward from the Gulf of Mexico into the FL panhandle, where PWATs are surging to above 2 inches.

Isolated showers will be possible through the afternoon hours today along the I-95 corridor along an inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary. A few showers will also be possible near the Altamaha River as deeper moisture advects northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico and the FL panhandle. Otherwise, breezy onshore winds will develop at coastal locations by noon as our local pressure gradient continues to tighten. Warm air advection will boost highs into the upper 80s at most inland locations, with low to mid 80s expected at coastal locations. Much warmer lows are expected tonight as a low level veering wind profile advects deep tropical moisture across the rest of our region overnight. A few showers will remain possible across inland portions of southeast GA overnight, with coastal convergence strengthening and developing a few showers towards sunrise for locations along coastal portions of St. Johns and Flagler Counties. Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s at coastal locations.

SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night].

Cold front trailing from the remnants of Beta will move through the area Friday, exiting Friday night. PWATs will continue to rise ahead of this system, with 1.8-2.2 inches on tap for storms to produce isolated heavy rainfall. We're transitioning into the time of year when we're starting to get stronger winds aloft again and with about 30 kts 0-6 km shear in place Friday along with around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, we could see a few storms producing damaging wind gusts to around 30-50 mph. On Saturday, high pressure will build over the southeast in the wake of the front, but with southwesterly flow from the Gulf, warm temperatures, and just enough moisture, could see scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday].

A parade of (mostly dry) cold fronts will continue, bringing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. A much drier, colder airmass will build over the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, however, so things will dry out mid- week. Temperatures will cool down through the week, starting near 90 on Sunday and returning back to the upper 70s-low 80s by Thursday. Overnight lows will drop through the week as well, starting around 70 on Sunday night and falling into the mid 50s- low 60s Thursday night.

MARINE.

Waves will continue to slowly fall below 7 ft through the evening hours, while southeast winds around 15 to 20 knots prevail tonight and into Friday ahead of our next cold front. A more active pattern for showers and thunderstorms is setting up as a series of cold fronts roll across the coastal waters the next few days, with the strongest front on Tuesday. Chance to slight chance for showers and thunderstorms anticipated through Tuesday.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents at all area beaches today through Friday, then risk should decrease over the weekend.

HYDROLOGY.

Elevated water levels will continue to gradually lower through the St. Johns River basin. Tidal gauge at Buffalo Bluff peaked in minor flood at 1.64 ft around 11 am this morning and is trending down. Minor flooding around 1-1.5 ft MHHW will remain possible, mostly in Putnam and Flagler county through Friday with nuisance flooding of less than a foot possible further north.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 71 88 71 88 70 / 20 70 40 20 0 SSI 75 85 74 85 73 / 20 50 30 30 10 JAX 72 90 72 89 73 / 10 50 40 30 0 SGJ 75 88 74 88 73 / 20 50 40 30 10 GNV 72 91 72 90 71 / 10 60 30 40 0 OCF 72 91 72 90 73 / 10 60 30 40 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for Inland Flagler- Putnam.

GA . High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Camden- Coastal Glynn.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 27 mi78 min SE 8.9 81°F 1016 hPa73°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 37 mi63 min SSE 16 G 18 80°F 80°F1014.8 hPa (+0.0)73°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KXFL

Wind History from XFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm--------------------CalmCalmCalmW4NW5NW5W4NW5CalmCalm43
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2 days agoW5----------------------CalmCalmW5W10W10W10NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Georgetown, St. Johns River, Florida (2)
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Georgetown
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Thu -- 12:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:24 AM EDT     2.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:53 AM EDT     2.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:22 AM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:44 AM EDT     2.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:43 PM EDT     2.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     2.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:48 PM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.42.42.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.42.42.42.42.52.5

Tide / Current Tables for Welaka, St. Johns River, Florida (5)
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Welaka
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:52 AM EDT     2.90 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:22 AM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:16 AM EDT     2.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:39 AM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:15 PM EDT     2.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:42 PM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:34 PM EDT     2.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:13 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.23.12.92.92.92.92.92.93.13.23.33.23.23.12.92.92.92.92.92.933.23.33.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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