Ormond-by-the-Sea, FL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ormond-by-the-Sea, FL

June 19, 2024 1:12 PM EDT (17:12 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM
Moonrise 5:32 PM   Moonset 3:07 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Expires:202406192130;;294164 Fzus52 Kjax 191339 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 939 am edt Wed jun 19 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-192130- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 939 am edt Wed jun 19 2024

.small craft advisory in effect through late Thursday night - .

Rest of today - East winds around 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet. Wave detail: east 7 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy. A slight chance of showers this morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon.

Tonight - East winds around 20 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail: east 7 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.

Thursday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail: east 7 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.

Thursday night - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail: east 7 feet at 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.

Friday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Wave detail: east 6 feet at 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.

Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: east 5 feet at 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.

Saturday through Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 939 Am Edt Wed Jun 19 2024

Synopsis -
strong high pressure will remain anchored off coastal new england through Thursday maintaining small craft advisory conditions across the coastal waters. Meanwhile, a trough situated to the northeast of the bahamas will be steered westward towards the southeastern seaboard late this week, with weak low pressure possibly developing as this system traverses the gulf stream waters. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage late this week and through the upcoming weekend across our local waters. High pressure will weaken late this week as it sinks slowly southward towards bermuda, with the axis of this surface ridge extending across our area during the upcoming weekend.

Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jun 18, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
57 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 66 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 75 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 88 nautical miles east of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ormond-by-the-Sea, FL
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Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 191432 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1032 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1020 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Very deep easterly flow is noted in the cross section in model guidance and JAX sounding, but more northeast aloft at 300 mb and above. Best moisture is in the lowest levels below about 8000 ft per the observed sounding. Essentially did not make much change to the forecast today, with slight lowering of POPs by about 10 percent, showing low chances near the 20-40 percent range due to weak to moderate low level convergence and daytime heating. Skies mainly mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. However, showed more cloudiness today across the southern zones based on visible imagery and short range guidance. Also, did some adjustments to the rainfall amounts through Thursday based on latest guidance.
Forecast max and min temps today and tonight are on track.

Easterly winds up to 15-25 mph and gusts to around 35 mph, so still looks like under criteria for wind advisory. A few higher gusts possible (about 40 mph) in a stronger shower or a very isolated thunderstorm.

For the marine update, just slight changes for the winds and seas based on the observations. Latest buoys show seas of 6-7 ft, so slightly lower than last night. Marine forecast has about 6-9 ft with occasional 10-11 ft today and tonight. Small craft advisory is on track as is the high surf advisory and rip current statement in effect.

NEAR TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Strong onshore/Easterly flow will continue through tonight with mainly scattered light to moderate showers moving onshore at times, although occasional slugs of deeper moisture will bring brief periods of heavy rainfall and possibly an isolated thunderstorm, but overall storm chances remain low through tonight over inland areas and will likely mainly be seen tonight over the Atlantic Coastal waters and possibly coming onshore at times.
Sustained Easterly winds will remain in the 15-25mph with gusts into the 30-40 mph range along the Atlantic Coast, just below Wind Advisory headlines, and will push inland at these levels during the daytime hours and mix down with any shower activity that develops. Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal with highs in the middle 80s at the Atlantic beaches, upper 80s along the I-95 corridor and around 90F over far inland areas. Winds diminish over inland areas tonight with the Easterly flow will remain breezy along the Atlantic Coast with continued scattered showers pushing onshore into the Atlantic Coastal areas at least as far inland to the US 17 corridor and the St. Johns River Basin through the night. Lows temps will fall into the lower 70s across inland areas, with the onshore flow keeping the Atlantic Coastal areas warm and muggy in the middle to upper 70s, otherwise low temps in the next 24 hours may actually occur during rain cooled shower activity for most location along the Atlantic Coast.

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

High pressure will be centered to the northeast through this period, continuing the prolonged period of onshore flow. Waves of low pressure will move through this flow, producing enhanced chances for precipitation. The strongest of these waves will move across the area Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.

During the day times on Thursday and Friday, there will be a chance for a few storms with diurnal heating. During the nights, convective potential will be minimal.

Highs will be below normal due to the onshore flow, while this same flow will keep readings above normal at night.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The high will build more toward the east northeast Saturday into Saturday night. This will result in a more southeast to south flow. This change in flow will result in warmer temperatures, and greater convective chances, especially Saturday afternoon and evening. The high will move more to the east on Sunday, yielding a mostly southerly flow. This will help produce an even warmer day on Sunday, with above normal convective chances occurring.

A weak frontal boundary will move south southeast across the area Monday into Tuesday. The resultant flow will be from the southwest. This will keep temperatures above normal, with these warmer readings pushing all the way to the coast. Convective chances will continue to run above normal.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 752 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Abundant low level moisture continues today with low level RH values that are at least 75 percent with the breezy easterly flow. Current observations show scattered to broken stratocumulus/cumulus over the region with some low chances of MVFR cigs this morning, mainly around SGJ. Still quite a bit moisture for brief periods of the MVFR cigs even during the aftn. As mentioned before, enhanced chances of showers expected tonight and have brought in some prevailing MVFR by midnight for JAX, CRG, VQQ, and SGJ, with the shower activity probably more persistent around SGJ. Held off on TEMPOs for showing SHRAs for now. Winds will be increasing to about 15-20G25-30kt by late morning and aftn, and will generally weaken tonight.

MARINE
Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Small Craft Advisories will continue through Thursday with East winds in the 20-25 knot range with frequent gusts to 30 knots at times. Models still on track with inverted surface trough under area of low pressure aloft pushing into the FL East Coast Atlantic waters Thursday Night and/or Early Friday which will likely continue strong onshore flow at Small Craft Advisory levels with low chances of potential Gale Force winds if an organized low pressure center can develop. Winds will then shift to the Southeast following the wave by this weekend with a decrease in wind speeds to 10-15 knots and slowly subsiding seas below headline levels.

Rip Currents: The strong onshore flow will continue a high risk of rip currents this week with surf/breakers of 4-6 ft Today and Thursday, but will need to keep an eye on local surf/beach reports today for potential high surf advisory for surf/breakers of 7 ft or higher. With the approach of the full moon later this week, water levels will start to run above normal but coastal flooding is not expected at this time in the onshore flow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 89 69 90 69 / 20 20 20 20 SSI 86 75 87 77 / 40 40 50 60 JAX 87 74 87 73 / 30 40 70 50 SGJ 87 76 86 76 / 30 60 70 60 GNV 91 72 89 71 / 20 30 60 30 OCF 90 73 91 73 / 40 30 60 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125- 133-138.

High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
41069 18 mi65 minE 18G23 81°F 83°F30.1172°F
41070 18 mi53 min 83°F7 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 19 mi88 minE 8.9 83°F 30.1870°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 33 mi73 minE 18G19 81°F 83°F30.1481°F
41117 41 mi47 min 83°F7 ft


Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KOMN ORMOND BEACH MUNI,FL 7 sm82 minE 17G225 smMostly Cloudy Mist 84°F72°F66%30.12
KFIN FLAGLER EXECUTIVE,FL 8 sm22 minE 16G2210 smOvercast86°F66°F52%30.14
KDAB DAYTONA BEACH INTL,FL 15 sm19 minE 12G2410 smMostly Cloudy84°F70°F62%30.12
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KXFL
   
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Wind History graph: XFL
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Tide / Current for Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida
   
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Smith Creek
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Wed -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:24 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:55 AM EDT     0.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:12 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida, Tide feet
12
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1
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0.9
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0.7
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0.7
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1


Tide / Current for Ormond Beach, Halifax River, Florida
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Ormond Beach
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Wed -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:55 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:39 AM EDT     0.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:43 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:19 PM EDT     0.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Ormond Beach, Halifax River, Florida, Tide feet
12
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0.7
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0.8


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southeast   
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Jacksonville, FL,




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