Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 11:22 AM   Moonset 12:42 AM

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AMZ454 Expires:202405142115;;189373 Fzus52 Kjax 141036 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 636 am edt Tue may 14 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-142115- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 636 am edt Tue may 14 2024
.tornado watch 241 in effect until 1 pm edt this afternoon - .
Today - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers with Thunderstorms likely this morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds and southwest 2 feet at 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds and southwest 2 feet at 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy. Thunderstorms likely with a chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 7 seconds and southwest 2 feet at 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Thursday and Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 3 seconds and southeast 2 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Saturday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 636 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis - Elevated south-southeasterly winds across the local waters will begin to subside through today, with small craft advisory conditions lowering through this morning. Strong to severe Thunderstorms will move eastward across our waters later this morning, then again this late this afternoon and evening while a warm front slowly lifts northeastward into the waters by daybreak on Wednesday. Thunderstorms later this morning will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and waterspouts. Winds will trend lighter and offshore behind the warm front this morning. This will be followed by a slow moving cold front that will pass into the waters on Wednesday, accompanied by additional strong to severe Thunderstorm potential during the predawn and morning hours, especially across the northeast florid waters. Conditions begin to improve Thursday as an area of weak high pressure consolidates to the east.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 11, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
57 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 66 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 83 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 99 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 140706 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 306 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A rather complex and tricky forecast continues for most of today and into tonight, as several shortwave impulses ride along a nearly stalled boundary across the area. The first round will be during the morning hours today, as showers and storms currently over the western FL panhandle move their way across the region.
With the morning timing of the precip, instability will be rather limited. However, still expecting enough buoyancy in place aloft for embedded thunderstorms within the approaching line of showers and trailing stratiform precip. Given the dynamical support with the shortwave and modest lapse rates aloft, there will be a chance for strong to severe storms as well, with gusty winds and hail being the main hazards. The best chance for this looks to be along and south of I-10 where the most instability will be in place. In fact, timing may also help an uptick of later morning surface heating in areas furthest south and east, and therefore an uptick in surface based CAPE.

The first batch clears the area around late morning, with the amount of potential convective coverage uncertain during the afternoon/evening due to the morning showers and storms. It will take some time for the atmosphere to "reset" behind the morning convection, though still expecting enough daytime heating for some showers and thunderstorms to pop up by the evening hours. Temps climb into the 80s to low 90s south and dew points will be near and over 70 area wide, and with the boundary lingering with modest dynamics aloft, there will be potential for strong to severe cells once again. Similar to this morning, gusty winds and hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Convection should clear out approaching midnight tonight before, you guessed it - another wave of energy aloft moves another round of showers and storms across the region overnight. Plenty of elevated instability will remain overnight, as the nearly stalled front northwest of the area also starts to make some progress southeastward. Needless to say, a strong to severe threat will persist through overnight tonight, as convection moves towards the area likely in the form of a squall line. Stay tuned for more developments on that throughout today. Lows tonight will be mild once again, similar to those of this morning (upper 60s and low 70s).

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Wednesday...Ahead of approaching frontal boundary still expect ongoing morning numerous to widespread showers and storms across NE FL with heavy rainfall the main threat, although some isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds still possible. Models still on track with pushing this boundary slowly southward through NE FL through the afternoon with skies becoming Mostly Sunny across SE GA as rainfall ends there during the morning hours with rainfall ending across NE FL by the late afternoon/early evening hours. Localized flooding will be the main impact across inland NE FL through the day as 3 day storm total rainfall amounts in some locations likely approach 4-6 inches, especially across Hamilton/Suwannee/Columbia/Gilchrist counties and a flood watch may be required at some point during this event. Breezy West- Southwest flow at 15-20G30 mph expected as diurnal heating mixes down leftover winds behind the trailing frontal passage. Likely sunshine breaking out by the afternoon hours should push Max temps into the mid/upper 80s for all areas.

Wednesday Night...Drier airmass overspreads the local area with dry conditions after sunset and skies becoming mostly clear and temps falling into the 60s area-wide behind the frontal passage.

Thursday...Lingering dry airmass in place between weather systems will continue mainly dry conditions under mostly sunny skies with above normal temps reaching into the upper 80s/lower 90s over inland areas with West-Northwest winds at 10-15 mph and East Coast sea breeze remains pinned closer to the Atlantic Coast.

Thursday Night...High clouds slowly increase ahead of next weather system with light SW winds at the surface. Low temps in the 60s inland and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Dry conditions will continue.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Friday...Long range models still differ on timing of next frontal boundary with the latest GFS run keeping the local area dry and hot, while the ECMWF remains faster with pushing scattered afternoon/evening storms into the region. So for now the model blends have kept PoPs in the 30-50% range. Southwest steering flow will push Max temps above normal and into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast along with Heat Indices pushing close to 100F.

Saturday...Next frontal boundary pushes into the region with a return to heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storm potential area-wide and rainfall chances already in the 60-80% range. Above normal temps will continue ahead of the frontal boundary with upper 80s SE GA and still into the lower 90s for NE FL with Heat Indices still close to 100F across NE FL.

Sunday/Monday...Lots of long range model uncertainty as some models push drier air into the region, while some stall the frontal boundary in the vicinity so for now the model blends are just placing normal diurnal scattered convection due to local sea breeze activity as above normal temps continue.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Gusty winds from earlier convection have been winding down, and expected to be near or slightly below 10 kt for the next several hours. All terminals experiencing low stratus and MVFR, which is expected to persist for the next several hours, bordering on IFR.
IFR ceilings are expected for all terminals by around 08 to 10Z before the next round of convection moves through and ceilings start to lift just prior to the onset. Confidence remains high enough for TEMPO TSRA for all sites, with GNV looking like the highest chance for strong TSRA as well. However, gusty winds will be possible for all terminals as morning convection moves through.
Have continued gusts up to 35 kt in the latest forecast, though higher gusts in future TEMPO groups will be possible.

Morning convection lowers confidence with respect to possible afternoon and evening development with the nearly stationary boundary. For now, have only included VCSH in the latest forecast, though TSRA will certainly be possible towards the second half of the forecast period.

MARINE
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Elevated south-southeasterly winds across the local waters will begin to subside through today, with Small Craft ADvisory conditions lowering through this morning. Rain and embedded storms will pass over the waters this morning, then again this afternoon/evening and through the overnight hours while a warm front slowly lifts northeastward into the waters by daybreak. A wave of strong to severe storms will develop and move eastward into the waters during the late morning hours today, and be capable of considerable thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and waterspouts. Winds will trend lighter and offshore behind the warm front Tuesday morning. This will be followed by a slow moving cold front that will pass into the waters on Wednesday. Conditions begin to improve Thursday as an area of weak high pressure consolidates to the east.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk remains moderate through tomorrow with the enhanced flow and stalled boundary over the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 68 86 64 / 90 40 10 0 SSI 82 71 86 69 / 90 70 30 0 JAX 86 69 88 66 / 80 70 50 0 SGJ 88 71 87 68 / 70 70 70 10 GNV 86 70 86 66 / 70 70 80 0 OCF 88 73 85 67 / 70 70 90 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ450-452-454.

Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ470-472-474.

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Smith Creek
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Tue -- 12:38 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:46 AM EDT     0.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:31 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:15 PM EDT     0.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida, Tide feet

Ormond Beach
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Tue -- 12:09 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT     0.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:02 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:59 PM EDT     0.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ormond Beach, Halifax River, Florida, Tide feet

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