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FXUS64 KEWX 281932 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 132 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 122 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

A low amplitude upper level ridge over the southwestern US has the flow over Texas from the west-northwest today. High at the surface centered over our southeastern counties has light winds across our CWA. There has not been any significant change to the airmass over us today and temperatures are in the 50s with dewpoints in the 20s and 30s. The pattern will move toward the east tonight. The main change will be a wind shift to the southeast. This will start the process of returning moisture to the region. The initial result will be increasing clouds tonight. Low temperatures Wednesday will be around the same as today. During the day Wednesday an upper level trough will drop down into southern CA and turn the flow over TX to the southwest. Beneath this the low level flow will continue from the southeast bringing a surge of moisture. Isentropic lift will increase through the day and there will be a chance for light rain by late afternoon across the central part of the CWA. As the upper trough progresses eastern Wednesday night, lower level moisture will continue to surge into the region and the isentropic lift will continue. This will bring likely rain and fog to the eastern half of the CWA. Some areas could see as much as a half inch of rain overnight. The southeasterly flow will warmer air and lows Thursday will be five to ten degrees warmer than Wednesday.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Key message: There is a risk for low-topped supercells producing weak, short-lived tornadoes over primarily our far eastern counties along US Highway 77 on Thursday, with the main window coming between 9am-4pm.

Discussion: The warmest and most active weather for the next week will come during the first 12 hours of the long term period. At 12Z Thursday, an H5 trough axis will be centered south of the Four Corners. Although mean upper troughing will remain to our west through the weekend, a lead shortwave is progged to cross just to our north on Thursday evening. Isentropic lift ahead of this feature will occur in a moistening and destabilizing environment. Early AM fog/drizzle and showers are forecast, followed by temperatures rising into the 70s in many areas despite a lack of sunshine. A pre- frontal sfc trough is likely to be located near our eastern counties around midday, with SSE winds ahead of it contributing to significant low level SRH and dew points well into the 60s. There remain some differences in the guidance with how far west this unstable airmass will extend, as well as the extent of a capping inversion, with global models generally further west than the NAM.
Best co-incidence of low level shear and instability will be for areas east of I-35/I-37, where the environment is likely to be characterized by 500-1500 J/kg CAPE (locally up to 2kJ/kg) and 50+ kts bulk shear. Strong low to mid level shear will support the development of low-topped supercells perhaps similar to those experienced on Oct 26th. Thus, will need to closely monitor the potential for a few weak tornadoes on Thursday. The highest concern in our region will be along our US-77 counties and eastward into WFO Houston's area.

A Pacific cold front will then follow on Thursday evening. Lingering low rain chances could continue through about midnight in the Coastal Plains, but we should dry out for the most part after 6pm, and rain is unlikely then through Monday across the region. Highs Friday through Tuesday will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with lows mainly in the 40s through the rest of the long term period. A reinforcing cold front will bring even drier air to the region by Monday, with ridging favoring above normal temperatures into the middle of next week.



AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR ceilings are quickly dissipating this morning and mostly sunny skies will prevail through the afternoon. All terminals will be VFR through the entire period. Light easterly winds will turn to the southeast this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 43 61 56 72 / 0 10 60 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 42 62 57 73 / 0 10 60 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 44 62 57 73 / 0 10 70 50 Burnet Muni Airport 42 60 54 71 / 0 10 50 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 47 59 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 42 61 56 72 / 0 10 60 60 Hondo Muni Airport 45 59 53 71 / 0 20 50 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 43 62 56 72 / 0 10 70 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 43 64 59 71 / 0 0 70 80 San Antonio Intl Airport 46 60 56 72 / 0 20 60 40 Stinson Muni Airport 46 61 58 73 / 0 20 50 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Lavaca
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Tue -- 12:44 AM CST     1.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:59 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:22 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:33 PM CST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:29 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:33 PM CST     Moonrise
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