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GMZ552 Expires:202312081615;;088153 Fzus54 Klix 080314 Cwflix
coastal waters forecast national weather service new orleans la 914 pm cst Thu dec 7 2023
pascagoula to atchafalaya river out to 60 nm
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves...along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz550-552-081615- coastal waters from port fourchon la to lower atchafalaya river la out 20 nm- coastal waters from the southwest pass of the mississippi river to port fourchon louisiana out 20 nm- 914 pm cst Thu dec 7 2023
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Sunday..Northwest winds 25 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 914 Pm Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
high pressure continues to move east through Friday with southerly wind in place. These winds will pick up Friday ahead of the next cold front that is expected late Saturday/early Sunday. The cold front will move through overnight and behind this front, winds will quickly shift to the northwest and strengthen. Small craft advisories will be needed across all zones with gale conditions possible. High pressure slowly builds in through midweek with offshore winds and seas subsiding.

FXUS64 KLIX 080538 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1138 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 253 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

High pressure centered off the South Carolina coast continues to shift east tonight into Friday, with a return of southerly flow and an increase in moisture. Cloud cover will return Friday but outside of a few sprinkles, it should stay dry and mild. Highs will be near 70 with lows Friday night in the lower 60s. A warm southerly wind continues Saturday ahead of the next cold front with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Given the lift, a few showers may pop up during the afternoon but these shouldn't be a severe threat.

As the surface front moves into the region Saturday, the upper trough remains back near TX/OK which will be a limitation to severe weather. The front and bulk of the rainfall look to move through almost entirely overnight. Not to quote SPC but the severe risk overnight, is at best, marginal. Reminds me of many typical cold season fronts: strong frontal boundary, decent instability, marginal shear, plenty of moisture but the deep layer lift is well behind the surface features. It's difficult to get any organized strong to severe storms without that. The mid level lift/shortwave may be the best driver we have for severe and even that lifts north into MS by 3-6Z Sunday. This is why the Slight Risk is only for the far northwest parts of our area; better instability earlier in the day and closer to the lift. Can never rule out a brief tornado in these situations with the highest chance being west of the lakes where there is a better chance of coupling of the lift/front/instability and marginal low level shear.

In terms of rainfall, current forecast is 0.5-1 inch but that's going to be too low. There will likely be a line of stronger showers or storms and stratiform rain behind it. It won't take much of a shower to get at least half an inch. Current thinking is that 1-3 inches is closer to what the area could receive.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

The low and associated front is departing the area on Sunday. This leaves behind characteristics of high pressure and, generally, for the extended period we will be cool-to-chilly and dry. On Sunday behind the front, strong winds will also be here with winds around 20-25 MPH with high gusts. Low temps early in the week will be in the vicinity of freezing, give or take, in the northern LA parishes and southwestern MS counties. Toward mid- week, return flow brings moisture into the area resulting in partly to mostly cloudy. Also by mid-week, models are deviating so timing and magnitude of details on the next frontal system is a bit murky.
So, we'll be able to resolve the discrepancies as we move forward, but overall the weather should be pleasant in the extended period.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. As high pressure continues to shift eastward, winds will become southeasterly.
Moisture will gradually return to the area, with prevailing cloud decks lowering from around 25kft this evening to 6-10kft by late Friday.

MARINE
Issued at 253 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

A large area of high pressure continues to push east today with southerly flow now in place. The next cold front will be Saturday night with winds increasing over the water through the day and could increase to Gale levels by Sunday morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with the front. Winds shift quickly to the NW with the gusty winds on Sunday. Light winds and low seas return by Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 42 68 59 74 / 0 10 20 60 BTR 47 72 62 79 / 0 20 10 50 ASD 45 70 60 76 / 0 10 0 30 MSY 52 70 63 77 / 0 10 0 40 GPT 47 70 61 72 / 0 10 10 40 PQL 44 72 60 77 / 0 10 10 40

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Manilla
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Thu -- 01:30 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:41 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:56 PM CST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:35 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:01 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:03 PM CST     0.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Independence Island
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Thu -- 01:30 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:40 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:42 AM CST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:35 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:01 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:00 PM CST     0.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Independence Island, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

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