Sunrise 6:51 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:06 AM

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FXUS64 KEWX 281953 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 253 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Convection continues across south central Texas with a cluster of storms ongoing across Williamson county and severe storms in the coastal plains. Breaks in the cloud cover should bring about destabilization of the atmosphere through this afternoon, especially east of I-35/I-37 as this area has largely not seen much convection yet. Healthy southeast winds in the lower levels and 0-6km shear near 50kts will be enough to get storms rotating. SPC has issued Tornado Watch #158 until 9 PM for our counties east of the I-35/I-37 corridors.

With the loss of daytime heating, we should see a decrease in the coverage of convection and we will remove rain chances after Midnight. Patchy fog development is expected, especially from the Hill Country eastward given recent rains.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The Subtropical Jet will remain active through the long term forecast period, with daily rain and storm chances in the works for South Central Texas. Periods of rain and storms, some possibly producing beneficial to locally heavy rainfall appear possible through next weekend.

On Tuesday afternoon, PWATs will steadily climb from 1-1.25" in the morning to the 1.5"-1.75" range and they aren't expected to drop below that range through the remainder of the long term period. As southwest flow aloft continues, it will send a series of shortwave disturbances through South Central Texas. There will be several notable periods for better storm chances over the region, most notably Wednesday evening and again Friday night as global models want to send a cold front through the region from north to south.
Guidance has been back and forth on whether or not this frontal boundary will even move into the region, so take the forecast for cooler temperatures with a grain of salt as confidence at this distance is still quite low. Ensembles have backed off the idea of a front moving through the CWA at all, so the forecast is increasingly uncertain from Friday morning onward.

WPC has highlighted the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor north of San Antonio, and the Coastal Plains in a Thursday and Friday level 1 of 4 (Marginal Risk) for excessive rainfall. The overall pattern supports this threat, but where exactly any heavier storms set up is tough to pinpoint at this time. For the time being, expect some warm, muggy mornings in the lower 70s, along with afternoons in the mid to upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday-Thursday before slightly cooler air arrives Friday and Saturday with the potential front getting picked up in the NBM guidance.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Showers continue along the I-35 corridor near AUS. Some TSRA noted as well, with trends suggesting thunder will remain mainly north of AUS. Will need to monitor carefully for the possibility of adding a mention TSRA to the forecast for this afternoon for the I-35 sites.
MVFR cigs likely to return quickly this evening around 06Z, possibly sooner given rainfall. Cigs likely to drop into IFR around 12Z and will need to consider the possibility of VLIFR as well. Out west at DRT, cigs will return a little later, but will be low end MVFR into upper end IFR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 69 88 69 86 / 10 0 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 88 67 85 / 10 10 10 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 89 69 87 / 10 10 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 66 86 67 84 / 0 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 96 74 95 / 0 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 67 87 66 85 / 10 0 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 67 90 69 89 / 0 0 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 88 68 86 / 10 10 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 86 70 84 / 40 10 10 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 88 70 86 / 0 0 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 70 90 71 87 / 0 10 10 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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