Sunrise 6:49 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 2:23 AM   Moonset 1:29 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 020823 AAA AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 323 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The complex of strong to severe thunderstorms that affected the northern Hill Country last night into the overnight hours is rapidly moving away into the HGX and FWD CWAs. Also the potential of heavy rains is coming to an end as well. However, we will continue with the Flood Watch for a few more hours to allow flooded waters to recede.

For the rest of today's forecast:

Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast for South Central Texas throughout the day. The Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau areas have better probabilities to stay dry for the morning hours while locations along and east of Highway 281 have better chances to experience shower and thunderstorm activity as an upper level short wave over central Texas pushes to northeast.

There is plenty instability in place across the local area and this helps for a quick shower or thunderstorm to develop with the heating of the day. Any shower or thunderstorm that manages to develop has the potential to become strong to marginally severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Also, precipitable water values are around 1.2 to 1.7 inches, which means that any strong updraft could produce a heavy downpour in a short period of time.

Cloudy skies are expected to prevail for most of the day with the exception of the Rio Grande, where partly cloudy skies are forecast for the mid to late afternoon. Today's highs are forecast to range from the mid 80s across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains to low and mid 90s along the Rio Grande.

Later tonight, things are expected to stay relatively quiet for the most part with some isolated showers or a few thunderstorms along and east of Highway 77.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the local area as the dry-line sits across west Texas and a weak frontal boundary slowly pushes into central Texas. Friday's highs range from the mid 80s along and east of Interstate 10 and Interstate 35 to upper 80s through mid 90s across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

HRRR members seem to suggest a stormy afternoon Friday to carry over into the evening for Friday night. The GFS is also a bit more bullish on convection for Friday night. For this reason have pushed some areas of the CWA into a chance category for storms, as the WPC QPF for 00-06Z suggests a robust round of storms rolling off the higher terrain into the Rio Grande Plains. Repeated rounds of isolated to scattered convection will keep the stormy narrative lively, but as has been experienced for much of the spring the better potential has favored the Hill Country and Central Texas. while there has been little predictability with the most recent activity, and likely to remain the case in the short-term, there is perhaps a period from noon to midnight Saturday, where more organized storm clusters can generate a cool outflow boundary and potentially spread farther south for a better coverage across the area. Aside from that the San Antonio area and areas south of I-10 and east of I-37 look to end up on the short end again in the need for drought-relieving rains.

Rain chances de-escalate Sunday, and by late Sunday night the forecast pivots toward a more hot and dry scenario for the work week.
while a weak SW flow pattern aloft will remain over TX, stronger dynamics over the Central Plains will likely keep a strong inversion over much of TX with some hot/dry plateau air spilling NE from Mexico. Thus a dry-line is expected to invade into South Central TX while the moist sector to the east is expected to be too shallow to give us a shot at convection.

Monday should be a transition day to the hot weather but some areas may remain fairly mild and humid from the recent rains. Then the heat ramps up Tuesday and continues through at least Wednesday. Some triple digit heat is projected for the Rio Grande Plains by Tuesday, and the central and eastern counties could get into the mid-upper 90s by Wednesday. Any lingering humidity could combine with this heat for a low-end Heat Advisory potential.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms are moving across the Hill Country while pushing to the northeast. Some activity at the tail end of this feature could clip KAUS within the next hour or two.
Therefore, included a TEMPO group with -TSRA for KAUS. In addition, low cigs at IFR category are forecast overnight into the middle of the morning for KAUS. Similar situation apply for KSAT and KSSF where IFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight through at least 18Z Thursday. MVFR cigs return sometime in the mid to late afternoon.
KDRT sits at MVFR but around dawn lowering to IFR. MVFR cigs return late morning with cigs lifting to VFR by 17Z. Southeasterly flow 5 to 10 knots are forecast to prevail through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 83 71 84 71 / 50 20 20 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 83 70 84 70 / 60 20 20 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 71 87 71 / 40 10 20 20 Burnet Muni Airport 82 69 84 70 / 30 20 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 75 96 74 / 10 0 30 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 82 69 83 70 / 50 20 20 20 Hondo Muni Airport 85 70 89 70 / 10 10 20 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 84 70 84 70 / 50 20 20 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 72 83 72 / 60 20 20 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 84 72 86 71 / 20 10 20 20 Stinson Muni Airport 86 73 87 72 / 20 10 20 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Bastrop-Blanco-Burnet- Caldwell-Fayette-Hays-Lee-Llano-Travis-Williamson.

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