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FXUS64 KEWX 040826 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 226 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Surface obs, regional radar, and infrared satellite imagery show a cold front rapidly pushing southward early this morning into the Hill Country. This boundary should be through most of South Central Texas by sunrise, resulting in a cold and dry start to the week.
Temperatures should dip into the 30s for most of the Hill Country and the lower to middle 40s for the rest of us. Opted to do a 50/50 blend of CONSMOS and NBM guidance for Min T's both this morning and tomorrow morning as CONSMOS typically handles cool, dry airmasses quite well. Regional water vapor imagery still shows our mid-level cloud cover resulting from a more active eastern Pacific moisture feed. Today should actually be relatively cloud free as the front moves in and mid-level moisture slides just a bit further south in the CRP/HGX CWAs. Afternoon temperatures will be just a bit cooler than Sunday from the resulting cold front, with 60s over the Hill Country and I-35 corridor to the north of I-10, and 70s for the rest of the region. Tuesday will be a tad warmer as winds turn back out of the east. Highs should top out in the lower 70s with mostly sunny skies and light winds.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Nearly calm winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will lead to a cool night Tuesday night with lows Wednesday morning in the 40s to near 50 degrees once again. Surface winds will be light Wednesday but will begin to return from a south/southeasterly direction. Highs during the day will top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Low-level southerly flow will increase by Wednesday leading to a return of nocturnal low clouds. This should allow for Thursday to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Southerly flow will continue through Saturday with a warming trend expected. Highs Thursday will top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s with the warmest day expected on Friday with highs in the middle 70s to near 80 degrees and lows near 60.

A trough axis will pass through the Central Plains on Saturday sending the next front into the region sometime Saturday. There are some minor discrepancies on the timing but Saturday looks like a safe bet. The base of the upper trough will be to our north keeping the best rain chances associated with the frontal passage to our north and east. Will keep some low PoPs in the eastern counties where the best chances will be located with higher available moisture. Temperatures behind the front will be back in the 30s and 40s for lows on Sunday and Monday with highs Sunday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows Monday will likely be coldest of the forecast period. As of today we have mid 30s in the Hill Country into the lower 40s for the rest of the area and not expecting a widespread freeze based on ensemble guidance.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

VFR flying conditions prevail overnight through Monday night with some cirrus around FL250. At the I-35 sites, southwesterly winds at 7 KTs or less turn northerly by morning and increase to 7 to 14 KTs, then east-northeasterly in the afternoon, then variable less than 5 KTs Monday night. At KDRT, northerly winds around 5 KTs become southeasterly Monday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 68 44 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 38 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 42 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 65 42 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 72 45 72 50 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 66 39 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 72 42 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 40 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 43 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 45 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 72 44 73 48 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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