Sunrise 6:54 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 10:07 PM   Moonset 7:26 AM

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FXUS64 KEWX 262007 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 307 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Key Point

-Isolated strong to severe storms possible Saturday night with large hail and damaging winds possible.

An upper level trough covers the western half of the country. Strong southeasterly flow in the boundary layer is keeping a warm, moist airmass in place over South Central Texas. Temperatures this afternoon range from the middle 70s to near 90 and dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A dryline is just moving into Val Verde County. The upper trough will move slowly toward the east during this period. The dryline will shift back toward the west tonight.
This will keep our weather dry tonight. With strong southeasterly flow continuing skies will be mostly cloudy and temperatures will be warm. Lows Saturday will be mostly n the 70s. The dryline will move back eastward again during the day Saturday reaching our western area by late afternoon. This will only provide enough lift for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Most of the area will stay dry. Tomorrow night a shortwave trough will move through the upper pattern and push the dryline farther east. This will bring good chances for showers and thunderstorm. POPs will increase over the northwest during the evening and spread south and east after midnight. The surface boundary will move into a warm, moist airmass with high CAPE and moderate deep layer vertical shear. Strong to sever storms will be possible. The greatest threat will be large hail with steep mid- level lapse rates, but damaging winds gusts and tornadoes are also possible. The best timing looks like late evening out west, after midnight I-35, and early Sunday morning Coastal Plains.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Incoming 12Z model data continues to indicate a line of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will be moving across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau early Sunday morning. The cold front is not expected to make much eastward progress during the daytime hours on Sunday and as convection moves ahead of the front, a gradual weakening trend is expected as activity moves into the I-35 corridor. With the convection expected to weaken, the threat for severe weather is expected to gradually decrease through Sunday morning. For now, it appears the better chance for strong to severe storms will remain confined to areas west of the I-35 corridor, where the Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5)
for severe storms. Farther east for our counties along the I-35 corridor, the risk drops into the Marginal category (Level 1 of 5).
All modes of severe weather will be possible, including hail, high winds and tornadoes. For the afternoon hours, the higher rain chances will shift eastward, mainly east of the I-35/I-37 corridors. Low- level moisture surges back westward Sunday night, with a continued low chance for showers and storms from I-35 eastward.

Some weak upper disturbances moving in from the southwest continue on Monday and Tuesday. We will keep a fairly low chance (20-40%) for rain in the forecast, mainly for the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and coastal plains. Strong to severe storms don't appear favored at this time, but given the time of year, we will continue to monitor the setup. A stronger upper level system is expected to move in late Wednesday or early Thursday and this may help boost the coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity. The medium range operational models continue to show some agreement in showing a fairly strong front moving in from the north sometime early Friday. If models remain in good agreement, we will need to increase our rain chances for Friday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

There are a few light showers around this afternoon and we may continue to see some showers through the afternoon. The San Antonio area is still under MVFR ceilings, but these should lift within the next hour or so. Southerly to southeasterly winds winds will continue around 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon an evening.
Ceilings will lower again tonight. There is a small chance for showers or thunderstorms Saturday morning, but the probability is too low to include in the TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 81 71 86 69 / 40 10 20 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 81 70 85 68 / 40 10 20 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 71 87 70 / 40 10 10 40 Burnet Muni Airport 80 70 82 66 / 40 10 30 80 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 74 98 68 / 0 10 10 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 80 70 84 67 / 40 10 30 70 Hondo Muni Airport 87 71 90 67 / 20 10 20 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 82 70 86 68 / 40 10 10 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 82 73 85 73 / 30 10 10 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 84 71 86 69 / 40 10 10 50 Stinson Muni Airport 86 73 88 70 / 40 10 10 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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