Friday, April16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bolivar Peninsula, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:47PM Friday April 16, 2021 6:17 AM CDT (11:17 UTC) Moonrise 8:41AMMoonset 11:03PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 419 Am Cdt Fri Apr 16 2021
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight, then showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth becoming choppy after midnight. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers early in the morning, then a chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth to slightly choppy in the afternoon.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 419 Am Cdt Fri Apr 16 2021
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Southeasterly flow will develop today ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will move through the gulf waters late Friday into Saturday morning bringing a northerly wind shift and a line of showers. Moderate to strong north to northeast winds and building seas behind this front will likely require small craft advisories on Saturday with caution flags lingering through Sunday. There will be a chance of showers and Thunderstorms on Saturday, but next week is looking relatively dry with the next chance of precipitation not arriving until near the end of week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bolivar Peninsula, TX
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location: 29.49, -94.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 160923 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 423 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a deepening upper level low exiting out into the Eastern Plains of Colorado. This system is expected to continue eastward into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska with its associated cold front quickly progressing across Texas through the day. Increasing southeasterly fetch into our area ahead of this front will lead to PWATs climbing into the 1.8-2" range by this afternoon. There will be a weak shortwave progressing through the area late this morning/early afternoon, which combined with the higher PWATs will lead to the chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the area. The forcing for the precipitation in the late afternoon/evening will not be from this passing weak disturbance, but from the approaching cold front associated with the upper level low moving through the Central Plains. This cold front is expected to be moving through the Dallas/Fort Worth area by 15z before reaching the Burleson-Houston County line around 22-00z late this afternoon. This front will be fairly quick moving getting into the Houston Metro area by 02-04z and then off the coast by 06-08z. The FROPA will be accompanied with a weakening line of showers and thunderstorms. Even through the line of storm will be weakening, there is a chance that as its moving through the northern part of the region (generally north of the City of Houston) that there may be some embedded stronger thunderstorms. The fast progression of the front may help to limit the time thunderstorm updrafts have to strengthen, but if any stronger storms do form there will be a threat of hail and gusty winds. The SPC has placed the northern half of the area in a Marginal Risk of Severe weather for this afternoon/early evening timeframe. CAM guidance is a bit of a mixed bag for this afternoon. HRRR has been on the more conservative side with CAPE thus limiting storm development. TT-WRF is on the more aggressive side bringing a cluster of strong thunderstorms in the north and east of Conroe between 00-02z. All guidance suggests that as the front moves its way into the southern half of the region, it will likely be accompanied by just a thin line of showers and isolated rumbles of thunder.

There will be a lull in precipitation Saturday morning, but another shortwave will be moving through east Texas Saturday afternoon bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the late evening. The best chance of precipitation will be along and south of I-10 where moisture will be higher to fuel any showers (today's cold front will filter drier air into the region, especially across the north where PWATs drop to near 1"). The chance of precipitation drop Saturday night as surface high pressure begins building over north Texas increasing subsidence into our area.

The passing cold front will bring a cooling temperature trend through the short term. Highs this afternoon will be in low to mid 70s north of I-10, and then into the upper 70s to low 80s towards the coast. CAA into the region will limit Saturday's high temperatures staying in the mid to upper 60s across the area. Cloud cover tonight will limit any too dramatic swings in the low temperatures. Areas north of I-10 will experience low in the 50s (low 50s in the B/CS area, upper 50s in northern Harris Co.) while areas along the coast will stay in the low 60s. However, clearing skies Saturday night will lead to temperatures dropping into the 40s north of Conroe and low to mid 50s along and south of I-10.

Fowler

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday Night].

Surface high pressure building into the state will help to keep temperatures on the cool side for the second half of the weekend and on into the first half of the week. A west to west-southwest flow aloft will keep periods of clouds across the area that will limit full daytime heating, and this combined with north surface winds should help to keep Sunday's afternoon highs generally in the mid to upper 60s for much of the area. The surface high will slowly edge eastward Sunday night through Monday night, and no significant return flow off the Gulf will set up before the next cold front's arrival and passage on Tuesday. Before this front, low temperatures will stay cool for both Sunday night and Monday night (40s/50s) while Monday's and Tuesday's highs warm into the 70s. The Tuesday front will reinforce the cool temperature trend with Wednesday's and Thursday's lows in the 40s/50s and Wednesday's and Thursday's highs in the 70s. On Thursday, surface high pressure will move off to the east and will set up a strengthening return flow which will bring rising moisture levels back to the area and rain back into the forecast. Model differences exist on the strength and position of a mid/upper level trough moving toward the state from the west heading into the end of the week. Area rain chances beginning Thursday night and continuing into next weekend could end up higher on future forecasts. 42

MARINE.

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue through the day, but a cold front will move off the coast late Friday night bringing not only a chance of showers and thunderstorms, but also a northeasterly wind shift. The northerly flow strengthens Saturday morning with Small Craft Advisories likely needed through the day on Saturday due to winds at 20 to 25 kts with gusts up to 30 to 35 kts. A passing upper level disturbance will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the Gulf waters through Saturday night. The flow does not weaken until overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning as high pressure begins to build over Texas. Seas on Saturday will increase due to the stronger winds with wave heights rising to 5 to 7 feet lasting through Sunday afternoon. Northeasterly flow develops on Monday with a more easterly flow returning by Tuesday. Most of the week will be on the drier side with a chance of precipitation not returning until late Thursday into next weekend.

Fowler

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1213 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021/.

AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance].

With the passage of the stronger storms earlier this evening, a mix of VFR/MVFR prevailing across the CWA at this time. Another disturbance currently moving across NC TX is clipping our north- ern counties amd this should continue through most of this morn- ing there. Elsewhere, CIGS could lower a bit more with MVFR/IFR restrictions possible by sunrise. Rain chances to return across northern portions of the FA early this afternoon as yet another shortwave moves in from the west along with the cold front from the north. Have tried to time the mention of VCSH/VCTS starting up north around noon . slowly translating south to the coast by late afternoon. Most of the short-term guidance is indicating a decent swath of storms with FROPA all the way to the coast. The consensus with timing has this front just off the coast between 05-07Z. 41

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

College Station (CLL) 76 52 65 47 66 / 70 50 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 75 58 68 52 69 / 70 50 40 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 78 64 70 59 69 / 50 50 30 40 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

TX . None. GM . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 3 mi48 min E 13 G 16 64°F 69°F1009.5 hPa
HIST2 12 mi48 min ENE 7 G 8.9 66°F 72°F1009.3 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 13 mi48 min ESE 15 G 17 72°F 72°F1007.8 hPa
GTOT2 17 mi48 min ESE 7 G 9.9 69°F 74°F1008.5 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 19 mi48 min ENE 15 G 18 66°F 71°F1008.6 hPa
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 20 mi28 min E 14 G 16 70°F 72°F1008.4 hPa
GRRT2 22 mi48 min SE 8.9 G 11 69°F 72°F1008.2 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 26 mi48 min E 14 G 18 66°F 73°F1009.1 hPa
TXPT2 40 mi48 min NE 13 G 16 64°F 72°F1008.2 hPa
LUIT2 41 mi48 min E 9.9 G 12 70°F 72°F1008.2 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 41 mi48 min E 7 G 8.9 67°F 75°F1009 hPa
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 42 mi48 min NE 7 G 14 65°F 72°F1009.8 hPa

Wind History for Rollover Pass, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX22 mi26 minE 97.00 miOvercast71°F68°F90%1009 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGLS

Wind History from GLS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS18
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S11S11S8S10S8SE7S6NE12NE15NE13NE12E11
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2 days agoE8E7E8SE8SE8SE9S7S6SE7E8E7E7E9E21
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Tide / Current Tables for Gilchrist, East Bay, Texas
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Gilchrist
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:11 AM CDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:40 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:58 PM CDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:14 PM CDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:28 PM CDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:45 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.40.30.10.10.10.30.40.70.91.11.21.21.21.21.11.11.11.11.11.11.11

Tide / Current Tables for Galveston Bay Entrance, Texas Current
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Galveston Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:28 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:51 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:21 AM CDT     1.72 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:41 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:35 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:38 PM CDT     -2.18 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.1-1.9-1.5-0.9-0.30.30.91.41.71.71.41.10.90.70.40.1-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.9-1.1-1.4-1.8-2.1

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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