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FXUS64 KEWX 170821 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 321 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

An upper level trough axis stretches from northwest Texas into northeast Sonora Mexico. A weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft is seen on satellite upstream of our region, across interior Mexico, and isolated convection has been noted in the higher terrain of Mexico. A few HRRR members indicate the impulse generating isolated showers and storms closer to the Rio Grande through the overnight hours and into south Texas through the morning hours, potentially also clipping our southeast counties, southeast of San Antonio.

Then, as the final shortwave digs east through the base of the trough, isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop out of Coahulia Mexico and into the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau late this afternoon and evening. A few HRRR members also indicate isolated showers and storms developing into the Hill Country and as far east as the I-35 corridor this evening. A few storms late this afternoon and evening will be capable of producing small hail and downbursts producing gusty winds up to 50 mph. Some isolated showers and storms could linger past sunset, until the upper level forcing passes east overnight.

Weak upper level ridging is forecast to build over the area on Saturday, producing dry, mostly sunny, and much warmer temperatures.
High temperatures on Saturday are forecast in the the low to mid 90s across the Hill Country and along and east of I-35 and I-37, in the upper 90s along the U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio, and 100 to 104 degrees along the Rio Grande.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

An upper level ridge will slowly move across TX over the weekend and strengthen during the beginning of next week. The low level flow will be southeasterly through the end of the period. Hot temperatures will continue into next week. Highs will be from the 90s to 105 Sunday. The central part of the area may warm a few degrees more Monday and Tuesday. Record highs may be possible along the Rio Grande, and we may see our first 100 degree day in the central part of the CWA We may need to issue some heat products early next week. Wednesday the upper ridge will shift toward the east,and the flow over TX will become west-southwesterly. A shortwave trough will move through the pattern and may provide enough lift to generate some showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of the CWA Most of the area will stay dry. Temperatures may drop a couple of degrees.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Isolated TSRA will track near SAT over the next hour, and gradually weaken. Additional SHRA and isolated TSRA development is possible overnight southeast of SAT. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings overnight for most locations, but the Rio Grande. Some pockets of IFR ceilings and IFR to MVFR visibilities in BR are possible around sunrise, mainly near and north of a T82-BAZ-3T5 line, including AUS. VFR conditions developing Friday afternoon. Isolated to scattered TSRA activity is indicated by several CAMs to develop in NW Mexico and along the Rio Grande Friday afternoon, tracking east near DRT late afternoon and early evening and potentially into the Hill Country and lesser confidence near the I-35 corridor. For now we have included a PROB30 TSRA group at just DRT for this.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 85 67 93 71 / 10 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 65 92 70 / 10 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 66 94 70 / 10 20 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 82 65 91 70 / 0 20 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 97 70 105 77 / 20 20 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 82 66 91 70 / 0 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 90 66 98 70 / 10 20 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 65 93 69 / 10 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 82 67 90 70 / 10 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 87 67 95 72 / 10 20 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 87 68 96 72 / 10 20 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Lavaca
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Fri -- 03:16 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:31 AM CDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:10 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:00 PM CDT     0.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM CDT     Sunset
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Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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