NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS64 KEWX 061730 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 152 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

All is fairly quiet across South-Central Texas overnight with calm or light northwesterly winds in place across the region. Dewpoints are in the 40s for most of the area and temperatures have fallen into the 40s for most locations. Some slightly higher dewpoint and temperatures remain in place across the southwestern counties and some low clouds are noted there on IR satellite imagery. Should see continued low cloud cover there through the morning hours with some possible high clouds streaming through the afternoon for other portions of the area. Surface winds are expected to become east/southeast by the late afternoon hours with highs this afternoon topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s with the higher values in the southern CWA.

For tonight, should see some possible high clouds continue with the chance for some low clouds and possible fog overnight. HRRR soundings look to support fog by morning, but not much in the MOS output or NBM guidance outside the NAM shows much in the way of fog.
With expected high cloud cover in place will keep fog out of the forecast for tonight for now, but future forecast updates/issuances may need to introduce it. Otherwise, with the expected increase in low-level moisture tonight, low temperatures will be slightly warmer, in the middle 40s to middle 50s with the warmer values in the west. Cloud cover will likely continue into Thursday with breezy southerly winds expected. This will allow for high temperatures to continue to be near the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Surface high pressure centered over the SE CONUS to start the long term will mean onshore flow will be in place. As a result, a seasonally warm and humid night is forecast with Friday morning lows in the upper 50s to near 60. A weak shortwave could allow for an isolated shower or storm in the Coastal Plains early, but better chances will be east of our region. Moderate SSW winds are forecast during the day, and depending on how quickly AM cloud cover clears out, the daytime may end up quite a bit warmer than average. Highs are likely to reach the mid and upper 70s in many areas outside the Hill Country, near 80 in some southern/western locations.

A deepening H4 trough axis will begin to approach Friday night into Saturday. It looks to phase with a northern stream trough and bring a relatively strong cold front across our region on Saturday morning. Along it, a few showers and storms may develop over our eastern counties during the day, and behind it breezy NW winds will gust to 30-35 mph in the afternoon and evening. Expect Sunday morning lows to dip into the mid 30s over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, but at this time wind speeds are forecast to remain high enough to prevent radiative cooling from taking over which should limit the freeze potential. However, this likely won't be the case on Monday morning. After Sunday highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s, forecast lows are in the 30s across all of south central TX. With dew points likely to be in the upper teens and 20s, this will be a night to watch for a potential widespread freeze.

We should be right back into a return flow pattern by Monday night into Tuesday, with temperatures warming once again. We're all patiently awaiting better rain chances, and although confidence is still pretty low we do believe that the middle of next week could provide the goods as another southern stream trough moves toward the area. Lets hope so at least.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

This morning's MVFR to IFR ceilings at KDRT improve within the next hour otherwise VFR flight conditions prevail at the local aerodromes into tonight. High clouds will filter into the region from west to east later today and through tonight. Low stratus with MVFR ceilings then develop early Thursday morning. The KAUS has the least likely probability for these ceilings and will include TEMPO conditions at that site. The ceilings then improve to VFR levels advancing into Thursday afternoon. Light east-southeasterly winds are to trend this afternoon into tonight at the I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT and KSSF)
before trending more southerly with more moderate speeds on Thursday afternoon. KDRT continues with light to moderate east-southeasterly winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 48 70 60 76 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 43 71 60 77 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 46 71 60 78 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 46 68 59 76 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 54 71 58 78 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 45 69 60 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 49 69 58 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 44 70 60 77 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 45 71 60 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 50 69 61 76 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 49 71 61 78 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Austin/San Antonio, TX,