Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Micanopy, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 8:34PM Saturday July 4, 2020 7:35 AM EDT (11:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:24PMMoonset 4:52AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 411 Am Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Today..Southwest winds around 5 knots increasing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms early in the morning, then scattered Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Numerous Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Widespread Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds around 10 knots diminishing to around 5 knots toward morning. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds around 5 knots increasing to around 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the morning, then isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 411 Am Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Synopsis.. High pressure south of the waters will support west to southwest winds through Monday, with scattered to numerous Thunderstorms creating locally hazardous marine conditions. The ridge will lift north into the waters Tuesday and Wednesday, with lighter gradient winds allowing for a more pronounced west coast sea breeze.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Micanopy, FL
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location: 29.53, -82.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 041111 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 711 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

AVIATION. [Through 1200z Sunday]

VFR conditions expected during the next 24 hours, except for locally lower conditions in scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA that will develop across ne FL after 16z . decreasing after 23z. Dry conditions are expected across se FL, including the KSSI site.

PREV DISCUSSION [212 AM EDT]. NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Mid/upper level energy will remain south of Mobile, AL through tonight, while another larger piece of upper level energy will dive southeastward across Arkansas today into tonight, and become the dominant feature. A surface trough will linger from near St. Augustine west northwestward across the I-10 corridor through much of the day before lifting northward towards the FL/GA border by this evening. Precipitable water values along and south of the boundary will be around 2 inches, leading to another round of heavy rainfall for portions of northeast Florida. The drier air north of the boundary will sink a little further south today, with precipitable water values 1.5 inches or less pushing towards the FL/GA border. Dry conditions are expected along the Altamaha River. An early start to convection is expected again today, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 for northeast Florida and 90-95F for southeast Georgia.

A weak surface low may develop along the boundary tonight over the northeastern Gulf or Florida Panhandle, with strengthening southwesterly flow over the area. There may be a brief lull in shower and thunderstorm activity in the evening, with scattered showers and storms then developing over night across northeast Florida. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday].

A weak surface low will remain nearly stationary along the central Gulf coast with support aloft from a closed mid/upper level low feature rotating over the southern Mississippi valley. A nearly stationary frontal boundary will stretch west to east from the surface low along the Gulf coast into northern Florida on Sunday. On Monday, a new weak surface low will form over the Arklatex region and lift the frontal boundary northward away from the Gulf coast into central MS, AL, and GA. Short wave energy will stream in over the region from the southwest around the eastern periphery of the mid/upper level closed low within the mid level southwest flow. This along with high moisture levels in excess of 2.00 inches of precipitable water and seabreeze interactions south of the frontal boundary over the region will lead to high chances for showers with scattered thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. Slow storm motions and warm mid level temperatures between -5 and -6 degrees celsius will make locally heavy rainfall the primary threat from thunderstorms with some strong wind gusts and frequent lightning possible due to high levels of instability as surface CAPE levels will be in the 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg within the very hot and moist airmass over the region.

High temperatures will be near to slightly below normal with readings in the upper 80s to around 90 Sunday and Monday. Lows on Monday will be near to slightly above normal with low 70s over inland SE GA and the mid 70s along the coast and over NE FL south of I-10.

LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday].

Tuesday into Wednesday, the nearly stalled mid/upper level closed low to our west will begin to move east from the ArklaTex region into the TN river valley towards the Carolinas. The surface low embedded in the east to west frontal boundary will also move eastward into TN and lift the boundary farther north into northern AL and northern GA into Wednesday as a new surface low develops along the Carolina coast. Again, high moisture content will remain over the region, but a vorticity max moving from GA into the Carolinas will push the highest chances for showers northward but still leave likely chances for showers along with scattered storms over NE FL and SE GA as diurnally enhanced convection continues. Locally heavy rainfall remains possible. But, severe thunderstorms do not appear likely given warm mid level temperatures and slow storm motions into midweek.

Thursday into Friday, the GFS and ECMWF diverge in solutions as the GFS wants to have the dominate surface low move south into southern GA while ECMWF wants to allow the the dominate surface low over the Carolina coast to strengthen and move northward into the Mid-Atlantic coast while a weaker surface low follows behind it and drifts south and east into NE FL. Both solutions keep high moisture levels over our region and expect the wet and stormy weather pattern to continue through the end of the week as drier air appears to stay west of the area through the end of the week.

Hi temperatures will begin slightly below normal on Tuesday and gradually warm to normal levels by Friday. Low temperatures will be slightly above normal Tuesday through Friday.

MARINE.

A trough of low pressure will linger across the waters this weekend and early next week with light winds and low seas. An unsettled weather pattern is expected with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through early next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 94 71 91 71 89 / 20 20 80 40 100 SSI 88 76 87 76 87 / 10 20 70 50 80 JAX 91 73 90 74 91 / 50 30 90 40 90 SGJ 88 73 88 74 90 / 60 40 80 40 90 GNV 89 73 88 73 88 / 80 50 90 40 90 OCF 90 73 88 74 90 / 80 50 80 40 90

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 47 mi35 min SW 5.1 G 7 83°F 1013 hPa (+0.4)76°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 57 mi50 min W 1 74°F 1014 hPa73°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 59 mi35 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 76°F 83°F1013.4 hPa (+0.3)75°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gainesville, Gainesville Regional Airport, FL10 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair71°F71°F100%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGNV

Wind History from GNV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4CalmCalmCalmSE5S5W6SW7W6NW9N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW5W9W7W7W13
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Tide / Current Tables for Buffalo Bluff, St. Johns River, Florida
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Buffalo Bluff
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:09 AM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:45 AM EDT     2.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:26 PM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:56 PM EDT     2.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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33.43.63.73.73.73.53.232.92.82.82.93.23.53.63.63.63.43.232.82.72.7

Tide / Current Tables for Welaka, St. Johns River, Florida (5)
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Welaka
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:10 AM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:53 AM EDT     2.92 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:25 AM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:44 AM EDT     2.88 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:23 PM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:16 PM EDT     2.84 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:21 PM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:56 PM EDT     2.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.933.23.33.33.33.232.92.92.92.92.933.13.33.33.23.132.92.82.82.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.