Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Micanopy, FL

UPDATE

The Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled along the NE FL coast and much of SE GA east of US-221/441. Dense Fog Advisory will continue through 10AM for western portions of far inland SE GA and along I-10 over inland NE FL to I-75 and also Clay and western St Johns county where the southern bank of Fog will persist along the St Johns river for another hour. The fog is quickly improving over Jacksonville northward.

The fog will lift late this morning due to increasing sunshine and northeast winds as high pressure builds north of the region over the Carolinas. NE winds will rise to 10-15 mph along the coast with gusts to 20-25 mph as a inverted coastal trough generates coastal showers well offshore but serves to pinch the local pressure gradient through this evening. High cirrus clouds will stream in from the west well downstream of closed mid/upper level trough approaching the Rio grande Valley of SW TX. Highs will be a notch warmer than yesterday in the upper 70s to low 80s with partly cloudy skies from the high cirrus overtop more low level cumulus clouds this afternoon.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Areas of dense fog possible this morning and again late tonight

- Elevated risk of rip currents at local beaches

The Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled along the NE FL coast and much of SE GA east of US-221/441. Dense Fog Advisory will continue through 10AM for western portions of far inland SE GA and along I-10 over inland NE FL to I-75 and also Clay and western St Johns county where the southern bank of Fog will persist along the St Johns river for another hour. The fog is quickly improving over Jacksonville northward.

The fog will lift late this morning due to increasing sunshine and northeast winds as high pressure builds north of the region over the Carolinas. NE winds will rise to 10-15 mph along the coast with gusts to 20-25 mph as a inverted coastal trough generates coastal showers well offshore but serves to pinch the local pressure gradient through this evening. High cirrus clouds will stream in from the west well downstream of closed mid/upper level trough approaching the Rio grande Valley of SW TX. Highs will be a notch warmer than yesterday in the upper 70s to low 80s with partly cloudy skies from the high cirrus overtop more low level cumulus clouds this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected.

Dry weather conditions with partly cloudy skies will persist through the beginning of the week with prevailing flow shifting to become more out of the southwest before midweek as high pressure ridging to the north moves off to the northeast. High temperatures for the beginning of the week will rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the into the mid to upper 40s for southeast Georgia and in the upper and lower to mid 50s for northeast Florida, with min temps in the upper 50s and lower 60s along the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy conditions through end the week.

- Chilly conditions develop next weekend.

Chances for showers will increase on Thursday, ahead of the advancing cold front pressing in from out of the northwest. PWAT values will rise slightly prior to the frontal passage as more moist air from out of the gulf advects in, however lingering drier air over the area is expected to inhibit convective developments with isolated to scattered showers being more likely over northeast Florida. Breezy northwesterly winds will persist through the end of the week, with winds becoming more mild following the fropa.
Clearing skies and dry weather will be in place by the weekend as high pressure and cold dry air settles in over the forecast area.
Temperatures will be near and slightly above the seasonal average for midweek, dropping to be below average by the end of the week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
LIFR stratus/fog bank has spread into Coastal SE GA and the JAX Metro Area this morning and will continue to impact SSI as well as JAX/CRG/VQQ through sunrise this morning, but will likely fall short of reaching GNV/SGJ. Otherwise a slow lifting of these lower conds through 13-15Z, with VFR conds at all TAF sites after 15Z through the afternoon hours as NE winds increase to 7-11 knots with a few higher gusts at coastal TAF sites. Mainly high clouds this afternoon with a few FEW/SCT Cu clouds in the 3000-4000 ft range. Winds subside around sunset and expect another set-up for LIFR fog conds to develop in the 06-12Z time frame, with best chances at SSI along the SE GA coast and at JAX/CRG/VQQ overnight, then into GNV by sunrise late in the TAF period by the 09-12Z time frame.

MARINE

A coastal trough will bring Dense fog over the near shore waters from St Simons Island southward to offshore of Cumberland Island, Fernandina Beach, Mayport and Ponte Vedra Beach through sunrise into late this morning. Light northeasterly winds prevail until high pressure building eastward in to the Carolinas elevates northeast winds to near caution levels this afternoon. Seas will also remain elevated, but just below Caution levels for the offshore waters through Monday. High pressure will then weaken over the southeastern states by Tuesday, allowing winds and seas to subside. Strong cold frontal passage on Thursday will bring offshore flow and Small Craft Advisory conditions, which will continue on Friday and Saturday.

Rip Currents:

High risk of Rip Currents Today for northeast Florida beaches, with moderate risk for southeast Georgia beaches due to lingering long period swells impacting the local beaches along with onshore flow.
Light winds and decreasing swells will keep Moderate Risk of Rips at both NE FL/SE GA beaches on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER
LOW MIN RH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S INLAND SOUTHEAST GA - Monday Afternoon And Tuesday Afternoon

Conditions will trend drier through the weekend and into early next week with light to breezy northwesterly winds today gradually veering northeasterly through Sunday. Due to the lighter winds - both at the surface and the transport wind - poor dispersions are likely for the next several days. Though afternoon humidities will trend lower Monday and Tuesday, critical humidity is unlikely through the next week. After a brief rebound in temperatures and humidity through the middle of next week, another strong cold front will push through the area Friday bringing chilly conditions and breezy winds.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Initially patchy fog forming overnight and becoming more dense by the early morning hours today and Monday, with areas of dense fog expected to be more widespread on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 78 49 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 74 58 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 79 56 79 52 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 79 61 77 59 / 10 10 0 0 GNV 82 56 81 54 / 10 10 0 0 OCF 81 56 81 56 / 10 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ023-120- 132-232-322-633.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday morning for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333.
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ132-149- 162-163.
MARINE...None.