Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bacliff, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

We've got ourselves a clear radar screen early this morning, and the satellite shows more typical nocturnal stratus rather than us warily watching thunderstorm development. After multiple days of dealing with strong pulses of storms dictated by potent shortwaves supporting mesoscale convective systems, we'll transition back to a more typical summer pattern for the next several days.

For the short term more specifically, when I say "typical summer", I mean the kind with a persistent diurnal cycle of showers and storms. Coastal showers in the morning, then we see isolated to scattered storms through the afternoon. The preferred region for storms to pop up will gradually shift inland through the afternoon along with the sea breeze boundary. As the sun goes down, storms will fade out and we clear out later in the evening. Late overnight, nocturnal development over the Gulf begins, and we begin the cycle anew.

This occurring daily is pretty high confidence. An upper ridge will be building over the Desert Southwest, leaving us underneath a broadly troughy pattern over Southeast Texas. The lower midlevel heights should generally correspond to some more instability and less capping, and also leave us in the path for continued shortwave troughs/vort maxes aloft. Both will create an environment broadly supportive of this diurnal rain cycle.

For today, one of those potent shortwave troughs over the MississippiValley looks to drag southwest back towards our area, and these lower heights aloft will help juice up storms a bit today. Combined with ample moisture over the area, we could be looking at some localized flooding issues crop up, and the entire area finds itself in a marginal risk area for excessive rain, which is a threat level 1 of 4 designation.

Tomorrow, though, we should finally start to settle back into a range that's closer to "routine", where most all storms of the day will provide manageable amounts of rainfall. Of course, because this is Southeast Texas, even on these days, flood risk isn't zero. But, at least, it will be more of the character where any flooding issues will be very localized, and occur if we have the poor luck to get the strongest storm of the day hang out over a particularly vulnerable spot.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Multiple rounds of showers and storms remain in the forecast through next week as the mid-level ridge breaks down and a robust shortwave trough deepens as it approaches from the west. With PWAT values in the 1.5-2.0+ range, showers and thunderstorms will have plenty of moisture to work with. This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms through the majority of the work week.

Highs through the week will be in the upper 80s to low 90s through the week. The combination of these temperatures and increased humidity will result in heat indices in the 100-108F range through much of the week. Lows each night will be mild and muggy with temperatures in the 70s inland to low 80s along the coast.

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

IFR CIGs at UTS, all other sites at VFR this hour. MVFR CIGs move in around 09z. VFR conditions return by afternoon hours Saturday.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again Thursday afternoon between 18z and 21z. Activity should wind down with loss of daytime heating.

MARINE
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Seas will continue to trend down overnight into Saturday. Light to moderate onshore flow will continue over the next several days along with daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 91 75 91 75 / 40 10 30 0 Houston (IAH) 91 77 91 77 / 60 10 50 10 Galveston (GLS) 89 82 89 81 / 50 10 40 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.