Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bacliff, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:25PM Thursday September 16, 2021 1:57 PM CDT (18:57 UTC) Moonrise 4:02PMMoonset 1:29AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 338 Am Cdt Thu Sep 16 2021
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers early in the morning and afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Friday..Northwest winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning and afternoon.
Friday night..South winds around 5 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..North winds around 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northeast winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening and after midnight.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening and after midnight.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 338 Am Cdt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Light northerly winds will continue to prevail through the end of the week before becoming southeasterly as high pressure builds in. Onshore flow and isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms are expected Friday and into next week as gulf moisture increases. Onshore flow becomes increasingly moderate over the weekend leading to a slight rise in wave heights going into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bacliff, TX
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location: 29.53, -94.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 161713 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

AVIATION.

Forecast soundings continue to support the idea that drier air to the west will get advected into SE TX later this afternoon and drier air aloft will begin to mix down as well so clouds are expected to decrease this afternoon. That said, visibile satellite imagery shows thick cloud cover continuing to rotate into the region from the east. Have leaned toward the clouds eroding this afternoon but timing is going to be tough. Some MVFR ceilings will redevelop toward morning over mainly eastern TAF sites but should mix out quicker than today. Have some concern that the cigs won't develop and if that occurs, conds look favorable for some fog and this could get locally dense in a few spots. Winds remain light through the TAF period. 43

PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 457 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021/

SHORT TERM [Today through Friday Night] .

Post tropical Nicholas wobbling around near the LA coast in the vicinity of Marsh Island. Circulation of Nicholas still impacting SETX with light N/NE winds and bringing in stratus deck from the east and will continue wrap around through the areas east of the I- 45 corridor and probably down over the coastal areas southwest of the Metro. The cloud deck should erode through the late morning/early afternoon hours with temperatures quickly responding and climbing into the 86-91 degree range inland. Coastal areas should still reach the mid 80s. Rain chances still linger in the east albeit slim with sprinkles and light showers beneath the cap. Winds decouple in the evening and skies clear out though some cirrus may speckle the area. Patchy fog will be possible toward morning Friday near sunrise but at this point probably at the rural sites mainly north of the I-10 corridor. On Friday the north winds relax and a seabreeze should develop and spread inland late afternoon with not only a moderate expanse of CU field but also some cirrus as upper low slips int the north-central portions of TX. Rain chances should still be low over the east even with the approach of the upper disturbance. Loss of heating in the evening should curtail the convective development but as upper low meanders closer late in the evening then early Saturday morning rain chances should ramp up as the cooling aloft and low level convergence increases. Threat for thunderstorms near the coast should be on the increase. 45

LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday] .

The combination of wraparound moisture from the remnants of Nicholas and a weak upper-level low will lead to steady PoPs over the weekend. These will be of our usual variety with showers/thunderstorms along the seabreeze, but coverage should be slightly higher east of I-45 and offshore where there is more moisture availability. The deeper moisture associated with the remnants of Nicholas that remains in the northern Gulf will slowly ease back in early next week with the advent of surface high pressure developing in the eastern Gulf. Onshore flow develops leading to moisture advection and increasing PW values (1.8"-2.2") for at least the southern half of the CWA. There is a little uncertainty on this though since all three of the global models offer different solutions (ECMWF doesn't bring in the deep moisture at all). Ended up only using "likely" PoPs for the Gulf waters since the moisture should at least make it to the coastline. Uncertainty with PoPs goes into next week as a cold front attempts to push through SE Texas. Temperatures prior to this will be right around normal with highs in the uppers 80s/low 90s and lows in the 70s.

Oh FROPA, FROPA! Wherefore art thou, FROPA? That is the magic question isn't it Well. there is increasing confidence that a cold front will make its way into SE Texas midweek. Global models are in consensus that the cold front will be on the doorstep of our northern counties on Wednesday morning, but things diverge a little bit after that. The upper-level trough driving the cold front is much deeper on the 00z runs of the ECMWF and Canadian, thus the cold front pushes through. On the 00z GFS, a cutoff low develops over the Northern Plains which keeps the trough from deepening far enough south to push the front all the way through or washes it out as it passes through. There is consistency though that with moisture out ahead of the front, the convergence along the frontal boundary will lead to showers/thunderstorms as it pushes in. After Wednesday afternoon, PoPs are uncertain since the ECMWF/Canadian dry us out following FROPA, while the GFS leaves lingering moisture over the area as the front washes out. Going with 20% PoPs for now through Thursday. Did a little wishcasting on Wednesday night and Thursday night and went a few degrees below guidance to suggest that I'm onboard with the front making it through. There won't be significant cold air behind the front, but I think we could at least see low 60s overnight for our northern counties. Speaking things into existence works right?

Batiste

MARINE .

Light northerly winds will continue to prevail through the end of the week before becoming southeasterly as high pressure builds in the eastern Gulf. Onshore flow and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday through next week as Gulf moisture increases. Onshore flow becomes increasingly moderate over the weekend leading to a slight rise in wave heights (increasing to 3-4 feet) going into early next week.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. College Station (CLL) 91 72 94 73 93 / 10 10 10 10 30 Houston (IAH) 86 72 92 74 91 / 20 10 20 20 40 Galveston (GLS) 85 77 89 79 87 / 20 10 20 30 40

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. TX . NONE. GM . NONE.

Discussion . 99 Aviation/Marine . 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 5 mi64 min N 5.1 G 7 76°F 78°F1010.8 hPa
GRRT2 16 mi64 min NNE 9.9 G 11 76°F 78°F1010.8 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 18 mi64 min N 8 G 9.9 77°F 80°F1010 hPa
GTOT2 18 mi64 min NNE 6 G 8.9 76°F 81°F1010.9 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 20 mi64 min NNE 6 G 8 80°F 78°F1010.9 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 25 mi64 min N 7 G 8 76°F 76°F1010.5 hPa
HIST2 32 mi64 min NNW 6 G 7 76°F 77°F1010.7 hPa
LUIT2 32 mi64 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 78°F 79°F1010.7 hPa
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 36 mi48 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 1010.5 hPa74°F
FPST2 44 mi64 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 80°F 80°F1010.2 hPa

Wind History for Eagle Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX12 mi68 minN 710.00 miOvercast79°F72°F79%1011.2 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX14 mi65 minENE 510.00 miOvercast82°F71°F69%1011.6 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX18 mi65 minNE 510.00 miOvercast83°F70°F65%1011.6 hPa
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX19 mi66 minN 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F72°F72%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEFD

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Eagle Point, Texas
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Eagle Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:28 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:51 AM CDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:01 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:23 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-00.10.30.60.81.11.21.31.31.31.31.21.21.21.11.11.110.90.70.50.30.1-0

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:28 AM CDT     1.96 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:28 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:12 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:01 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:11 PM CDT     -2.01 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:46 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.71.91.91.81.51.310.50.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.8-1-1.4-1.7-1.9-2-2-1.7-1.3-0.6

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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