Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bacliff, TX
May 7, 2024 9:17 AM CDT (14:17 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:31 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 5:00 AM Moonset 6:53 PM |
GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 317 Am Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Today - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of sprinkles early this morning. Patchy fog early this morning.
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Patchy fog late.
Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Patchy fog in the morning.
Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Patchy fog in the late evening and early morning.
Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday night - Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Saturday - Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Saturday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 317 Am Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
fetch of light to moderate onshore winds will maintain somewhat elevated seas for the next several days. Mariners should note high flows from area rivers, creeks, and streams will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents in the bays and intercoastal water way well into midweek and can make navigation difficult. There is only a slight chance of rain, if any, expected into midweek. Onshore flow should prevail until the next cold front pushes off the coast early Friday morning.
fetch of light to moderate onshore winds will maintain somewhat elevated seas for the next several days. Mariners should note high flows from area rivers, creeks, and streams will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents in the bays and intercoastal water way well into midweek and can make navigation difficult. There is only a slight chance of rain, if any, expected into midweek. Onshore flow should prevail until the next cold front pushes off the coast early Friday morning.
Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 071124 AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 624 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
While flooding on area rivers remains, and will remain, an issue for quite some time (see Hydrology section below), we will at least get a stretch in which the atmosphere will not be actively making things worse. That's not to say it will be *totally* dry.
The same gentle isentropic upglide from onshore flow responsible for giving us our typical nocturnal and early morning stratus this time of year might manage to squeeze out a short sprinkle in isolated spots. But the key word here really is "sprinkle". I'm talking something that you might notice on the windshield at most, and certainly not even measurable, much less something that would cause any problems.
No, in the short term, the key concern is going to be one of heat.
Yup, summer is coming...by some unscientific, informal measures...it already is here. That measure? This specific forecaster is cranky about having to be outside for any appreciable length of time. More scientifically, we are looking at afternoon highs coming in right around 90 degrees, give or take a few degrees. I'd shade a bit on the cooler end of that range today, and a bit towards the warmer side tomorrow, based on the potential for slightly greater cloud cover today. Functionally, though, this is largely splitting hairs. Either way, we'll be looking at temperatures that are a little on the warm side of early May averages, and plenty of humidity (plus an extra source of local moisture from floodwaters and saturated ground).
This gives us a couple days where peak heat index values look to range from the middle 90s to low 100s away from the Gulf today and tomorrow. This is easily shy of our heat advisory threshold of 108 degrees. However, I did still give a bit of thought to something simply because this will be our first hot stretch of the year, and for many places, their first 90 degree-day of 2024 (yes, College Station, we know, you got one in March). I came down on it being still too low and not far enough from climatological norms for any sort of advisory, but our lack of acclimation to the heat did at least force me to think about it.
And while we're talking about getting acclimated, take it slow in doing that. It's a long summer, there'll be a lot of heat, and we're just getting started here. Most of our bodies aren't quite ready for our typical big time summer numbers yet. And while we're not there yet, heat illness tends to try to creep in at lower levels. Another way of looking at heat - the wet bulb globe temperature - tries to be more applicable to those out doing work in hot conditions, as opposed to the heat index, tuned to locations in the shade. If you've been in the military, marching bands, or are a competitive distance runner, you may already be familiar with the WBGT! Our forecast WBGT values are in a range that is considered elevated, and indicates a need for more frequent water and rest breaks, particularly when not heat acclimated. And that sounds like some real good advice to me.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
On Thursday, a frontal boundary/dry line will be stalled out near the Brazos Valley, just north of our area. Compressional heating and unimpeded WAA/moisture advection should allow for highs to reach the 80s to lower 90s. A shortwave trough is expected to move overhead during the day, tapping into PWs of 1.5-1.8" to bring scattered to isolated storms during the afternoon. The thermodynamics in this environment look favorable for these storms, featuring ML CAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG, DCAPE of +1000 J/KG, TEI values in the range of 20-30 with steep midlevel lapse rates over 8 degC/KM. Effective bulk shear looks to be in excess of 50 knots with cloud layer shear surpassing 80 knots. However, SRH looks to be weaker, generally under 100m2/s2 in the lowest 3km. SPC has areas north of I-10 under a Slight (level 2/5) Risk of Severe weather for Thursday, with areas to the south under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk. The strongest of these storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.
The aforementioned boundary should push south Thursday evening as an upper level trough digs through the Central Plains/Central Mississippi River Valley, with the front pushing offshore during the early morning hours of Friday. This will usher in drier and slightly cooler conditions through the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s to 80s. Expect benign weather through Saturday as surface high pressure slides east through our area. Shortwave energy from a cutoff low over the Desert Southwest passes overhead on Sunday, allowing rain chances to return as PWs rise to 1.0-1.5 inches. Long range guidance shows the aforementioned cutoff low traversing eastward into Texas on Monday, bringing more active weather next week.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
Bulk of the area is low MVFR, but some patchy IFR is being noted, mainly west of the terminals. Take current obs as the bottom, though a sporadic IFR reading isn't impossible before we get fairly rapid improvement to VFR mid-to-late morning. Meanwhile, winds briefly veer over to southwesterly this morning before returning to south or southeasterly
Tonight
persistence. Expect the return of low MVFR CIGs overnight.
MARINE
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
Light to moderate onshore flow is expected through Thursday ahead of a frontal boundary. This persistent fetch will bring seas of 3-6 feet in the Gulf, elevated tide levels along the coast, and a high risk of rip currents across Gulf-facing beaches. High flows from rivers, creeks and streams will lead to above normal water levels in the bays and intercoastal water way through midweek, which may make navigation difficult at times. A weak cold front pushes offshore during the early morning hours of Friday, potentially warranting caution flags into the early weekend. Lighter winds and calmer seas develop on Saturday as high pressure passes overnight.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Although there are periodic chances for scattered showers/storms this week, this is not expected to result in any additional flooding. Rivers will remain swollen for days (possibly weeks).
Do NOT go around barricades and stay out of the floodwaters.
Do NOT return to homes until officials deem that it is safe.
Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and Navasota rivers. The following river points are either at or forecast to go into Major flood stage as of Monday afternoon:
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Moderate to Major Flood Stage
Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.
Also of note is that the downstream runoff from the previous rainfall will cause continued rises along the Brazos River through the end of the week. The Brazos River at Sugar Land, Rosharon, and West Columbia are forecast to rise into minor flood stage at the end of the work week and through the weekend.
Batiste
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 90 73 90 74 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 89 75 90 75 / 10 10 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 76 85 76 / 10 10 10 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 624 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
While flooding on area rivers remains, and will remain, an issue for quite some time (see Hydrology section below), we will at least get a stretch in which the atmosphere will not be actively making things worse. That's not to say it will be *totally* dry.
The same gentle isentropic upglide from onshore flow responsible for giving us our typical nocturnal and early morning stratus this time of year might manage to squeeze out a short sprinkle in isolated spots. But the key word here really is "sprinkle". I'm talking something that you might notice on the windshield at most, and certainly not even measurable, much less something that would cause any problems.
No, in the short term, the key concern is going to be one of heat.
Yup, summer is coming...by some unscientific, informal measures...it already is here. That measure? This specific forecaster is cranky about having to be outside for any appreciable length of time. More scientifically, we are looking at afternoon highs coming in right around 90 degrees, give or take a few degrees. I'd shade a bit on the cooler end of that range today, and a bit towards the warmer side tomorrow, based on the potential for slightly greater cloud cover today. Functionally, though, this is largely splitting hairs. Either way, we'll be looking at temperatures that are a little on the warm side of early May averages, and plenty of humidity (plus an extra source of local moisture from floodwaters and saturated ground).
This gives us a couple days where peak heat index values look to range from the middle 90s to low 100s away from the Gulf today and tomorrow. This is easily shy of our heat advisory threshold of 108 degrees. However, I did still give a bit of thought to something simply because this will be our first hot stretch of the year, and for many places, their first 90 degree-day of 2024 (yes, College Station, we know, you got one in March). I came down on it being still too low and not far enough from climatological norms for any sort of advisory, but our lack of acclimation to the heat did at least force me to think about it.
And while we're talking about getting acclimated, take it slow in doing that. It's a long summer, there'll be a lot of heat, and we're just getting started here. Most of our bodies aren't quite ready for our typical big time summer numbers yet. And while we're not there yet, heat illness tends to try to creep in at lower levels. Another way of looking at heat - the wet bulb globe temperature - tries to be more applicable to those out doing work in hot conditions, as opposed to the heat index, tuned to locations in the shade. If you've been in the military, marching bands, or are a competitive distance runner, you may already be familiar with the WBGT! Our forecast WBGT values are in a range that is considered elevated, and indicates a need for more frequent water and rest breaks, particularly when not heat acclimated. And that sounds like some real good advice to me.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
On Thursday, a frontal boundary/dry line will be stalled out near the Brazos Valley, just north of our area. Compressional heating and unimpeded WAA/moisture advection should allow for highs to reach the 80s to lower 90s. A shortwave trough is expected to move overhead during the day, tapping into PWs of 1.5-1.8" to bring scattered to isolated storms during the afternoon. The thermodynamics in this environment look favorable for these storms, featuring ML CAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG, DCAPE of +1000 J/KG, TEI values in the range of 20-30 with steep midlevel lapse rates over 8 degC/KM. Effective bulk shear looks to be in excess of 50 knots with cloud layer shear surpassing 80 knots. However, SRH looks to be weaker, generally under 100m2/s2 in the lowest 3km. SPC has areas north of I-10 under a Slight (level 2/5) Risk of Severe weather for Thursday, with areas to the south under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk. The strongest of these storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.
The aforementioned boundary should push south Thursday evening as an upper level trough digs through the Central Plains/Central Mississippi River Valley, with the front pushing offshore during the early morning hours of Friday. This will usher in drier and slightly cooler conditions through the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s to 80s. Expect benign weather through Saturday as surface high pressure slides east through our area. Shortwave energy from a cutoff low over the Desert Southwest passes overhead on Sunday, allowing rain chances to return as PWs rise to 1.0-1.5 inches. Long range guidance shows the aforementioned cutoff low traversing eastward into Texas on Monday, bringing more active weather next week.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
Bulk of the area is low MVFR, but some patchy IFR is being noted, mainly west of the terminals. Take current obs as the bottom, though a sporadic IFR reading isn't impossible before we get fairly rapid improvement to VFR mid-to-late morning. Meanwhile, winds briefly veer over to southwesterly this morning before returning to south or southeasterly
Tonight
persistence. Expect the return of low MVFR CIGs overnight.
MARINE
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
Light to moderate onshore flow is expected through Thursday ahead of a frontal boundary. This persistent fetch will bring seas of 3-6 feet in the Gulf, elevated tide levels along the coast, and a high risk of rip currents across Gulf-facing beaches. High flows from rivers, creeks and streams will lead to above normal water levels in the bays and intercoastal water way through midweek, which may make navigation difficult at times. A weak cold front pushes offshore during the early morning hours of Friday, potentially warranting caution flags into the early weekend. Lighter winds and calmer seas develop on Saturday as high pressure passes overnight.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Although there are periodic chances for scattered showers/storms this week, this is not expected to result in any additional flooding. Rivers will remain swollen for days (possibly weeks).
Do NOT go around barricades and stay out of the floodwaters.
Do NOT return to homes until officials deem that it is safe.
Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and Navasota rivers. The following river points are either at or forecast to go into Major flood stage as of Monday afternoon:
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Moderate to Major Flood Stage
Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.
Also of note is that the downstream runoff from the previous rainfall will cause continued rises along the Brazos River through the end of the week. The Brazos River at Sugar Land, Rosharon, and West Columbia are forecast to rise into minor flood stage at the end of the work week and through the weekend.
Batiste
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 90 73 90 74 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 89 75 90 75 / 10 10 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 76 85 76 / 10 10 10 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX | 5 mi | 47 min | S 12G | 82°F | 78°F | 29.77 | ||
| MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX | 11 mi | 47 min | SE 6G | 77°F | 76°F | 29.75 | ||
| GRRT2 | 16 mi | 47 min | SE 8.9G | 77°F | 78°F | 29.75 | ||
| GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX | 18 mi | 47 min | S 15G | 79°F | 77°F | 29.75 | ||
| GTOT2 | 18 mi | 47 min | S 6G | 78°F | 79°F | 29.75 | ||
| NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX | 20 mi | 47 min | S 8G | 78°F | 29.74 | |||
| RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX | 25 mi | 47 min | SSE 12G | 77°F | 82°F | 29.77 | ||
| HIST2 | 32 mi | 47 min | S 8.9G | 78°F | 85°F | 29.79 | ||
| LUIT2 | 32 mi | 47 min | ESE 6G | 78°F | 78°F | 29.76 | ||
| KGVW | 36 mi | 22 min | SE 9.9 | 77°F | 75°F | |||
| FPST2 | 44 mi | 47 min | SE 12G | 78°F | 78°F | 29.75 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KEFD ELLINGTON,TX | 11 sm | 23 min | SSE 10 | 7 sm | Overcast | Mist | 79°F | 75°F | 89% | 29.77 |
| KLVJ PEARLAND RGNL,TX | 14 sm | 24 min | S 08 | 6 sm | Overcast | Mist | 79°F | 75°F | 89% | 29.79 |
| KHOU WILLIAM P HOBBY,TX | 18 sm | 24 min | S 07 | 9 sm | Overcast | 81°F | 73°F | 79% | 29.77 | |
| KGLS SCHOLES INTL AT GALVESTON,TX | 19 sm | 25 min | SSE 12 | 9 sm | Overcast | 79°F | 75°F | 89% | 29.79 |
Eagle Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:53 AM CDT -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:59 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:23 AM CDT 1.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:20 PM CDT 0.87 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:30 PM CDT 0.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:52 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:00 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:53 AM CDT -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:59 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:23 AM CDT 1.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:20 PM CDT 0.87 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:30 PM CDT 0.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:52 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:00 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Eagle Point, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0 |
| 1 am |
| -0.1 |
| 2 am |
| -0.1 |
| 3 am |
| -0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 1.1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.3 |
Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:18 AM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:51 AM CDT 2.66 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:59 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:31 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:07 AM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:15 PM CDT -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:54 PM CDT -0.51 knots Min Ebb
Tue -- 07:51 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:59 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:32 PM CDT -2.43 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:18 AM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:51 AM CDT 2.66 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:59 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:31 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:07 AM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:15 PM CDT -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:54 PM CDT -0.51 knots Min Ebb
Tue -- 07:51 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:59 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:32 PM CDT -2.43 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.1 |
| 1 am |
| -0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 1.8 |
| 4 am |
| 2.5 |
| 5 am |
| 2.7 |
| 6 am |
| 2.4 |
| 7 am |
| 1.8 |
| 8 am |
| 1.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.1 |
| 11 am |
| -0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| -1.6 |
| 8 pm |
| -2.1 |
| 9 pm |
| -2.4 |
| 10 pm |
| -2.4 |
| 11 pm |
| -2.2 |
Houston/Galveston, TX,
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