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AMZ454 Expires:202312051300;;898876 Fzus52 Kjax 041837 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 137 pm est Mon dec 4 2023
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-051300- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 137 pm est Mon dec 4 2023
Rest of today..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 137 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis..
high pressure will build west of the region tonight through Tuesday. A dry cold front will cross the local waters early Wednesday morning, trailed by strengthening northwest winds and small craft advisory conditions over the outer waters. Winds and seas begin to weaken Wednesday night as high pressure builds north of the local waters through Thursday. The high builds offshore of the southeast atlantic coast Friday.
Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 02, 2023 at 1200 utc...
47 nautical miles east northeast of flagler beach. 53 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 61 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 84 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 041842 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 142 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY

DRY AND COOL THROUGH FRIDAY

INLAND FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY MORNING

NEAR TERM
Issued at 138 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Some partial clearing expected tonight, but overall skies remain partly to mostly cloudy with layers of mid to high clouds continuing to stream aloft from the Gulf of Mexico across the region. Despite the cloud cover expect low temps to fall into the 40s across inland areas, but likely closer to 50F along the Atlantic Coast and St. Johns River Basin. Winds shifting to the Northwest behind the frontal passage tonight and remaining in the 5-10 mph range, which should prevent any significant fog formation.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 138 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Synopsis...Dry conditions and cooler, with inland frost potential Thu morning.

Tuesday, dry and cooler low level NNW flow funnels southward across the area with surface high pressure west of the region under near zonal upper level flow aloft continuing high clouds across NE FL and mostly cloudy skies, with thinner high cirrus across SE GA making for more peeks of sun. Early Wed, a dry reinforcing cold front pushes southward across the area with the passage of a long wave upper level trough, which will finally shift cloudiness south of NE FL late Wed afternoon. Gusty NNW winds of 25-35 mph will be possible trailing the frontal passage.
Trailing the front, deep layer NNW continues into Thu as an upper ridge builds eastward across the eastern GOMEX & the surface ridge centers builds north of the local area.

Temperatures will trend below normal with high in the 60, then upper 50s north of the I-10 corridor Wednesday & Thursday trailing the frontal passage. Lows will range in the 40s Tuesday night, then cool into the 30s inland by daybreak Thursday & Friday mornings. The 'coolest' night of the period looks to be Wed Night/Thu morning with clear skies and light northerly drainage winds supporting low temperatures in the mid/upper 30s which will bring frost potential. Thursday night, the surface ridge to the north begins to build offshore of the SE Atlantic coast as high cloudiness increases from the SW, with low temperatures moderating into the 40s across much of NE FL to low 40s/upper 30s across SE GA.



LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 138 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Synopsis...Warmer into the weekend with rain & thunderstorm chances returning late Sat into Sun.

Fri-Sat...The airmass begins to moderate further Friday into Saturday as the surface high builds offshore of the SE Atlantic coast with a return of warmer SSE low level winds and increasing high cloudiness from the SW downstream of the next developing storm system taking shape over the central CONUS. Locally, a coastal trough (developing warm front), will be lifting northward across the local area late Friday into Saturday, with a low chance (< 15%) of light showers/sprinkles. Saturday, rain chances increase from the west with the approach of a pre-frontal squall line.

Sun-Mon...Rainfall overspread the area from west to east Sunday with a chance of isolated thunderstorm with the entire are within the warm-sector. Moderate kinematic forcing and plenty of moisture will be in place for deeper convective growth, but once again the limiting factor will be instability. Surface based instability looks meaner, with maybe a nose of low level CAPEs nosing inland from the GOMEX during the pre-dawn hours Sunday morning across the Suwannee River Valley. Better instability looks to be elevated generally in the 06-12z time frame where cooler mid levels increase mid level lapse rates...but this looks un-phased with the rain shield at this time. At this time, it does not appear convective ingredients will coincide for an elevated severe storm threat locally with this next event. Rain chances tapper off Sunday evening from NW to SE, with a return to below normal temperatures and dry conditions for the first part of next week as surface high pressure builds west of the region.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

CIGS have lifted to VFR at all TAF sites early this afternoon except for SGJ, where IFR CIGS should lift to MVFR CIGS by the 19-20Z time frame, then VFR conds expected after 21Z time frame.
Otherwise West winds will increase to around 10 knots this afternoon with a few gusts to around 15 knots at times. These winds will diminish after sunset (23Z) to around 5 knots or less.
Light winds overnight and moist ground conditions will still support some light BR (Mist/fog) conds late tonight/early Tuesday morning from 08-13Z time frame. Due to the low probs of this scenario have just added TEMPO for 6SM BR at JAX/CRG/GNV/SGJ, while trended all the way down to 3SM BR at VQQ. Otherwise a steady stream of SCT/BKN high clouds in the 150K-250K range through the night and late in the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 138 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

High pressure will build west of the region tonight through Tuesday. A dry cold front will cross the local waters early Wednesday morning, trailed by strengthening northwest winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions over the outer waters. Winds and seas begin to weaken Wednesday night as high pressure builds north of the local waters through Thursday. The high builds offshore of the southeast Atlantic coast Friday.

Rip Currents: Low rip current risk through Wednesday. Elevated rip current risk returns Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 138 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Dry and cooler through Thursday under prevailing WNW winds. A reinforcing dry cold front will move across the region Wednesday, with breezy winds near 15 mph and gusts 20-30 mph at times with elevated dispersion possible in the afternoon due to strong transport winds.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 138 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

The St. Marys River at Macclenny is expected to crest below Minor flood stage over the next day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 43 65 43 59 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 50 66 47 61 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 48 68 45 61 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 52 69 48 62 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 48 69 45 61 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 50 71 46 62 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Sutherlands Still
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Mon -- 03:52 AM EST     3.68 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:37 AM EST     4.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:41 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:04 PM EST     3.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:00 PM EST     4.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sutherlands Still, Dunns Creek, Florida, Tide feet

Sutherlands Still
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:44 AM EST     3.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:44 AM EST     4.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:41 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:11 PM EST     3.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:03 PM EST     4.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sutherlands Still, Dunns Creek, Florida (2), Tide feet

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