Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kemah, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is in store for Friday as an embedded shortwave trough moves through southern Texas. HRRR shows scattered to numerous showers and storms developing mid-late morning through the afternoon hours. With PWAT values remaining in the 75th to 90th percentile, the latest run of the HRRR seems pretty reasonable. The uncertainty lies with which locations will receive rainfall and which locations will remain dry (thinking the setup will be pretty spotted across southeast Texas). This is due in part to a building ridge in the 500 mb layer that will create pockets of subsidence and inhibit rain for some locations across the area.

The ridge will slide east during the day Saturday, resulting in higher rain chances for western counties where moisture remains elevated. As the ridge moves off to the east, an upper level low will approach from the Pacific NW. For Sunday, expect rain showers and thunderstorms to continue, with the highest chances over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods areas. This is can be attributed to an LLJ and an overhead jet streak. PW values are expected to remain fairly high (1.8") across those regions, which may result in some heavy downpours. As a result, WPC has placed those areas in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday.

Speaking more on the aforementioned upper-level low, expecting it to move into the Central Plains sometime Tuesday into Wednesday. A few things to note as this system moves in...a dry line is anticipated to develop towards west Texas, as that occurs, a surface low will develop on the lee side of the Rockies later in the day Monday. This will position Southeast Texas in the warm sector of the system. In addition to this setup, still looking like we will have plenty of moisture and instability to work with along with the potential for a strong jet to develop nearby. All that to say, we are still monitoring the potential for severe weather near the middle of next week. SPC has placed portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney woods in a 15% chance for severe weather on Wednesday. At this time it appears that the more favorable dynamics lie to our northwest, however, given that it is late in the forecast, I imagine that may evolve in the coming days. Continue to stay up to date with the latest forecasts as we approach the next week.

Lastly, as far as temperatures are concerned, highs should remain in the upper 70s to low 80s through the weekend. Early next week we will see highs in the mid to upper 80s. Going into the weekend, lows will remain in the low 70s for much of the area.

Bailey

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Lingering showers and thunderstorm are still present this afternoon, but should only bring minor impacts to KCLL. Otherwise, cloud decks are expected to continue to build overnight resulting in multiple stations seeing MVFR CIGs with pockets of fog also possible tonight. The combination of fog and cloud cover may be dense enough for brief IFR conditions around KHOU and KSGR, but confidence is too low to mention in current Package. Otherwise, concern shift to Friday and much better chances of showers and thunderstorms. Currently start time for storms has be around noon with better timing for impacts to sites around 1 to 5 PM. At this time current impacts to sites are likely to be moderate to heavy rainfall with a low potential for lightning over or within the vicinity of sites.

MARINE
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

As winds and seas remain elevated, small craft should continue to exercise caution through at least Friday morning. Caution flags may need to be extended further into Friday if wave heights are slower to decrease. A high risk for rip currents will continue through the end of the week for gulf-facing beaches as increased onshore flow continues. An extended fetch of easterly to east- southeasterly winds in the eastern Gulf will bring elevated seas through the weekend. Expect seas to build to 5-7 feet. Winds may continue to increase through the weekend, which may result in the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through next week, with the highest chances on Friday as an upper level disturbance moves overhead. Winds could be stronger and more erratic in and around thunderstorms.

Bailey

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 65 80 66 81 / 20 60 20 40 Houston (IAH) 68 81 68 83 / 20 70 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 71 77 72 78 / 30 70 20 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.