Thursday, June4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kemah, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:18PM Thursday June 4, 2020 9:59 PM CDT (02:59 UTC) Moonrise 6:20PMMoonset 4:24AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 343 Pm Cdt Thu Jun 4 2020
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday..East winds 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds around 15 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 343 Pm Cdt Thu Jun 4 2020
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. No significant marine issues are anticipated through Friday. On Saturday, look for building swells associated with tropical depression cristobal to begin making into the upper texas coastal waters. Elevated seas and winds will likely persist into early next week. The official national hurricane center forecast takes cristobal northward into the gulf, strengthening it back to a tropical storm, and eventually making landfall to our east late Sunday or early Monday. That being said, there remains uncertainty, and mariners should closely Monitor the progress of this system.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kemah, TX
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location: 29.55, -94.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 042353 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 653 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

AVIATION.

Mostly VFR conditions expected. Periods of MVFR to IFR conditions possible again overnight into early Friday morning due to areas of patchy fog. Light S winds tonight increasing back to 5-10 KTS Friday morning. Iso SHRA/TSRA can be expected Friday afternoon and evening, dissipating late evening and early night with the loss of heating. 24

PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020/

DISCUSSION .

Typical early-summer weather is expected to continue to close out the week, both with seasonal temperatures, as well as isolated to scattered showers and storms near the seabreeze. Of course, all eyes are on Cristobal over Mexico right now, and what it will mean for not just Southeast Texas, but across the Gulf Coast. There will be greater uncertainty than usual while the storm is weak and over land, hopefully with more certainty coming once the center is back out over water.

Fortunately, right now, it appears the guidance indicates a little more with each model cycle that direct impacts to most of our area will be limited. Areas east of I-45 would be most likely to see rain Sunday-Tuesday, and the biggest impact may end up being well above normal heat - and potentially record heat early next week. That said, it's important to not sleep on Cristobal. Storms in the past around the Yucatan have had changes to the forecast - sometimes dramatic! - occur with an unexpected center reformation. We'll have to continue to keep an eye on the latest information as we see how the situation evolves.

SHORT TERM [Through Friday] .

Areas of showers along the coastal counties reaching as far north as Montgomery county in the evening. The showers and thunderstorms will be short lived after sunset followed by partly cloudy skies through the night. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s range across the area. Highs tomorrow will reach the low 90s inland while coastal counties will reach the upper 80s. During the early morning hours, areas of low stratus is anticipated throughout the area and some patchy fog mainly concentrated from Madison to Fort Bend counties and as far east as northern Liberty County. Inside the Beltway, however, is not expected to be effected by any fog. The fog and low stratus is expected to break up through out the late morning then bring some isolated late afternoon or early evening showers.

LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday] .

If I copied and pasted my long term AFD from yesterday, would anyone notice? It would still be valid, at least. And given the uncertainty discussed in that AFD, that's got to at least count for something? Cristobal's influence continues to dominate . and cloud . the long term forecast. So, like yesterday, this AFD will be based on Cristobal following the NHC forecast track, and could become very worthless if we get any significant deviation from that.

By Friday night, Cristobal should be making its way to the Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan. The channel of lower heights between two upper ridges still exists, and gives the storm its "out" to the northern Gulf Coast. So much continues to hinge on the delicate interplay between Cristobal, the upper ridge building east from NW Mexico, and the upper trough to the west of that ridge, helping nudge it eastward. If the ridge builds too strongly/too quickly, there is still some potential for Cristobal to be pushed left of track - the 12Z deterministic Euro does precisely this, making landfall closer to the Sabine River, and left of the forecast track.

Fortunately, a storm going west of the TX/LA border still appears to be somewhat of an outlier solution, so I'm not going to get too worked up about this. But, I also see the 00Z EPS, 12Z GEFS, and 12Z GEPS make three ensemble systems where the mean solution does jerk to the northwest around landfall, so there's certainly some sort of signal that this building ridge could still push Cristobal a little too close for comfort. My main worry is if the center of Cristobal reforms west of the Yucatan underneath the midlevel circulation, which looks to emerge out over the Bay of Campeche a little sooner on Friday afternoon. This may ultimately be meaningless, even if it were to happen, but it seems that if there is a failure mode for the forecast, this would be it. All in all, it's probably a good problem to have to be trying to construct ways in which we might see unexpected impact - I'd much rather be exploring ways I could be surprised than prepping for an expected landfall!

So, assuming all goes to plan and Cristobal is headed towards the Louisiana Coast for a late Sunday/early Monday landfall, things should shape up to be fairly low impact for us on land (marine impacts may be a different story, read the section below for those). Rain showers on the outer periphery of the storm may work through our area, particularly if the storm does move left of track a little. Best shot for rain will be east of I-45, and dry weather becomes much more likely the farther west you head from there.

Indirectly, we'll have to watch out for being underneath a summer ridge aloft, and on the subsident edge of Cristobal. That's a surefire recipe for a heatwave! The NBM persists in explicitly forecasting record high temps at College Station on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 90s and potentially even lower 100s most days of the work week. For the time being, I've continued to tone down those highs given the uncertainties involved in the forecast . but I didn't shave as much off today as I did yesterday.

MARINE .

Based on the latest guidance & NHC forecast, winds will gradually back to the east-northeast-north-nw etc thru the weekend and early next week . assuming the general consensus of a landfall to our east sometime late Sun or early Mon. Of course, we're still several days away and mariners should continue to keep up with the latest forecasts for updates and changes.

No significant marine issues are anticipated thru Fri. On Saturday, look for swells associated with Cristobal to begin making into the upper Texas coastal waters . with SCA's possibly being required by late afternoon offshore. Assuming the current fcst remains about the same, thinking is that elevated seas, 15-25kt winds, building surf would be the general impacts with this system locally into early next week.

Though winds will generally be from an offshore direction, tide levels should run 1-2 feet above normal. Any other time, that might not be much of an eye opener. But with a higher period swell expected, a more significant wave run-up along area beaches will need to be closely monitored for the potential of coastal flooding late Sat into Mon. Strong rip currents will likely also be a hazard.

TROPICAL .

Tropical Depression Cristobal continues to meander over Mexico, and is expected to linger there for a day or so before beginning to move north up the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast has changed little, and expectations are still for it to reach the northern Gulf coast early next week. There is still uncertainty in specific timing and impacts to our area, so please continue to monitor the latest forecast information from our office and the National Hurricane Center for the most up-to-date information.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. College Station (CLL) 74 92 73 95 75 / 0 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 74 92 73 94 76 / 10 20 0 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 78 87 79 89 79 / 0 10 0 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. TX . NONE. GM . NONE.

Aviation . 24


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 6 mi60 min S 9.9 G 13 82°F 86°F1010.9 hPa (-0.0)
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 9 mi60 min S 7 G 11 82°F 84°F1011.4 hPa (-0.0)
GRRT2 18 mi60 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 82°F 87°F1010.7 hPa (-0.3)
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 19 mi66 min S 9.9 G 12 82°F 85°F1010.4 hPa
GTOT2 19 mi60 min S 5.1 G 9.9 82°F 85°F1011.3 hPa (-0.0)
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 20 mi60 min S 6 G 8.9 82°F 83°F1010.9 hPa (+0.5)
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 24 mi60 min S 6 G 8 85°F1011.6 hPa (+0.0)
HIST2 31 mi60 min S 4.1 G 7 81°F 85°F1011.1 hPa (-0.4)
LUIT2 34 mi60 min S 8 G 12 82°F 88°F1012.7 hPa (+0.0)
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 37 mi50 min S 9.7 G 12 82°F 83°F1011.2 hPa77°F
FPST2 46 mi60 min SSE 9.9 G 13 82°F 89°F1010.2 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Eagle Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX12 mi70 minSSE 610.00 miA Few Clouds79°F73°F84%1011.2 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX15 mi67 minS 510.00 miFair82°F72°F72%1011.5 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX18 mi67 minS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F72°F70%1011.4 hPa
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX20 mi68 minS 910.00 miFair83°F75°F77%1011.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEFD

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE4E4CalmS3S2--CalmCalmCalmCalmS3--S4S5CalmSE7E10SE10SE10SE11--S8SE6
1 day agoSE3SE4E4SE4SE4SE4CalmCalmCalm--E3SE5E4S4SE4SE4SE8SE8S8S8S8S5S8SE6
2 days agoNE3NE3N5--N5--NE3--NE5NE4NE5NE8NE9NE8NE8----E10E8E7E8----SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas (2)
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:52 AM CDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:24 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:19 AM CDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:17 PM CDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:20 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:56 PM CDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.100.30.50.811110.90.90.80.80.80.80.90.80.70.6

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:47 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:21 AM CDT     2.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:23 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:01 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:57 PM CDT     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:17 PM CDT     -0.49 knots Min Ebb
Thu -- 07:19 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:15 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:56 PM CDT     -2.44 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.70.21.32.12.62.52.11.50.90.40-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.6-0.9-1.4-1.9-2.3-2.4-2.3-1.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.