El Lago, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Lago, TX

May 4, 2024 9:08 PM CDT (02:08 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM
Moonrise 3:18 AM   Moonset 3:28 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 328 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024

Tonight - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.

Sunday - Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the late morning and afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the afternoon.

Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy in the late evening and overnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening.

Monday - Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the late morning and afternoon.

Monday night and Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.

Tuesday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy after midnight.

Wednesday - South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.

Wednesday night and Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.

Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 328 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024

Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and elevated seas will prevail through the weekend and into next week. Winds and seas will reach small craft should exercise caution levels at times. Shower and Thunderstorm chances continue over the weekend, but a more organized line of Thunderstorms is expected to approach the coast early Sunday morning, potentially bringing gusty winds. Drier conditions return to the area during the upcoming week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near El Lago, TX
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Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 050002 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 702 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Key Messages:

⏺Flood Watch in effect through Sunday evening for portions of SE Texas

⏺Widespread 1-3" with isolated higher amounts of 4-8" possible tonight through Sunday night (highest amounts generally along and north of I-10)

Showers continuing to move through Polk County this afternoon. With a warm, moist, and unstable environment isolated activity could continue north of I-10 through the afternoon.

Our attention turns to tonight through the Sunday night period. SE Texas remains under a warm, moist, and unstable airmass. The current environment will set the stage for the next heavy rainfall event. A shortwave trough will bring another thunderstorm complex that will move across Central Texas later tonight. The MCS is projected to arrive at our western border (Brazos Valley/Piney Woods) after midnight. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and spread SE Sunday as another MCS makes its way through the area.
Soundings reveal a deep saturated layer, PWs near 1.75-2", and a deep warm cloud layer. This, in addition to a developing LLJ will contribute to high precipitation efficiency, and heavier rainfall.
Precipitation totals will average 1-3" with smaller areas receiving higher amounts of 4-8" (generally along and north of I-10).

Unfortunately, much of this area has already been impacted by heavy rain in the last 7 days, so it will not take much to trigger flash flooding once again. For this reason, WPC has kept the Brazos Valley, Piney Woods, and down to the far NW portion of Harris County in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall while much of the rest of the area (with the exception of the immediate coast) remains in a Marginal Risk for today into tonight.

For Sunday the majority of the area will be in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall as rounds of showers and storms continue to move through. There is a bullseye for the Moderate Risk area that is focused over portions of Houston County, much of the Brazos Valley, down to the I-10 corridor and east into Liberty County. With many locations within these areas having experienced the most impacts from recent rainfall, any rainfall over these areas would contribute to or worsen existing flooding.

In addition to the flood threat, SPC has placed much of the area in a Marginal Risk and a sliver of the Brazos Valley in a Slight Risk for severe weather tonight. For tomorrow, the SW CWA is in a Slight Risk and the rest of the area in a Marginal Risk. There is sufficient instability with this stronger shortwave, so a few storms could become strong to severe and produce large hail and damaging winds.

As this event unfolds, please make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings, avoid driving across flooded roads, and do not drive around barricades. Remember, "Turn Around Don't Drown!"

Adams

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The heavy rain threat finally comes to an end on Monday allowing for rivers to have an extended period to drain. Widespread rain chances don't return till the end of the work week, but with southwesterly flow aloft dominating throughout much of the week we'll move into a period of above normal temperatures. Subtle ridging briefly builds in on Monday allowing for temperatures to increase into the upper 80s...and the temperature climb doesn't stop there. An upper level low will persist in the Northern Plains into midweek, which kicks the ridge axis eastward...but helps to induce southwesterly flow aloft. 850mb temperatures subsequently surge into the 99th to MAX percentile (NAEFS/GEFS), so expect temperatures from Tuesday into the end of the work week to be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

The hottest temperatures are expected on Wednesday and Thursday with widespread highs in the low to mid 90s. With grounds already saturated though, this may lead to higher amounts of humidity so we'll have to monitor heat index values. Wednesday and Thursday are again the days to monitor as heat index values look to range from 98- 105°F. Given the early onset of this heat (our bodies aren't acclimated to the heat just yet) in addition to lingering effects from the previous rainfall in some areas (power outages & clean-up efforts), there is at least some chatter around here about the potential for a Heat Advisory.

The southwesterly flow aloft means we remain in good positioning for shortwaves to pass through and generate some showers/storms. These aren't anticipated to be widespread though. The first rain chance comes on Wednesday, but as of right now it appears that most of the convection will dissipate before it reaches Southeast TX from the north thanks to a subsidence inversion layer aloft. We'll see if the LLJ can help overcome that cap, but it doesn't look too likely at the moment (never say never though). Our best chance of rain is at the end of the work week as a weak frontal boundary approaches. Rain chances first appear across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods on Thursday afternoon, then the rest of Southeast Texas Friday and into the weekend.

Batiste

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Area will become MVFR this evening with SHRA/TSRA possibly developing/moving across parts of the area. Stronger SHRA/TSRA complex will be moving into the area overnight with some storms possibly becoming severe and with locally heavy rain. Could see IFR ceilings/visibilities with this activity. Will carry lingering SHRA/TSRA in the TAFs for the morning and afternoon hours along with some lifting ceilings, but we will have to see if any stabilization happens from the overnight activity. Confidence is on the high side for the first 12 hours of the TAFS and on the low side for the last 12 to 18 hours of the TAF.

42

MARINE
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and elevated seas will prevail through the weekend and into next week. Winds and seas will reach Small Craft Should Exercise Caution levels at times. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue over the weekend, but a more organized line of thunderstorms is expected to approach the coast early Sunday morning, potentially bringing gusty winds. Drier conditions return to the area during the upcoming week.

42

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The Flood Watch has been extended to 7pm CDT Sunday evening and expanded to now include Austin/Colorado Counties. Additional heavy rainfall is expected in areas that have already received excessive amounts of rain over the past few days. At this time, we are anticipating an average of an additional 1-3" of rain with smaller areas of 4-8" possible within the watch area. With soils already saturated, this will likely lead to quick runoff and rapid responses along area rivers/creeks/bayous.

Moderate to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and Navasota rivers. The following river points are either at or forecast to go into Major flood stage:

- Trinity River (Riverside): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate forecast to go to Major - West Fork San Jacinto (Conroe): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - San Jacinto (Sheldon): Major Flood Stage - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Major Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Major Flood Stage Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues. 

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 69 81 70 86 / 70 70 10 0 Houston (IAH) 72 82 72 87 / 50 70 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 73 80 73 82 / 20 40 20 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-300-313.

High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday evening for GMZ370-375.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 9 mi50 min ESE 16G20 80°F 79°F29.89
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 9 mi50 min E 8.9G13 74°F29.89
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 16 mi50 min S 8G14 77°F 29.87
GRRT2 20 mi50 min E 12G14 76°F 78°F29.87
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 22 mi50 min SE 17G21 78°F29.88
GTOT2 22 mi50 min ESE 9.9G14 77°F 78°F29.86
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 29 mi50 min SE 13G16 76°F 86°F29.89
LUIT2 34 mi50 min E 14G19 77°F 80°F29.88
HIST2 35 mi50 min ESE 7G11 77°F 83°F29.91
KGVW 40 mi33 min E 12 75°F 73°F
FPST2 45 mi50 min E 16G18 76°F 78°F29.86


Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KEFD ELLINGTON,TX 7 sm14 minE 129 smMostly Cloudy77°F73°F89%29.88
KLVJ PEARLAND RGNL,TX 10 sm15 minSE 099 smOvercast79°F72°F79%29.89
KHOU WILLIAM P HOBBY,TX 14 sm15 minESE 13G209 smOvercast79°F72°F79%29.87
KGLS SCHOLES INTL AT GALVESTON,TX 22 sm8 minESE 1310 smOvercast77°F75°F94%29.89
KAXH HOUSTONSOUTHWEST,TX 23 sm13 minESE 0710 smMostly Cloudy77°F75°F94%29.88
Link to 5 minute data for KEFD


Wind History from EFD
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas (2)
   
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Clear Lake
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Sat -- 02:35 AM CDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:18 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:35 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:34 AM CDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:26 PM CDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:28 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:16 PM CDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas (2), Tide feet
12
am
0.6
1
am
0.6
2
am
0.5
3
am
0.5
4
am
0.6
5
am
0.7
6
am
0.7
7
am
0.8
8
am
0.8
9
am
0.8
10
am
0.7
11
am
0.6
12
pm
0.5
1
pm
0.4
2
pm
0.3
3
pm
0.3
4
pm
0.4
5
pm
0.5
6
pm
0.7
7
pm
0.8
8
pm
0.8
9
pm
0.8
10
pm
0.8
11
pm
0.6



Tide / Current for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
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Sat -- 12:50 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:14 AM CDT     0.23 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:39 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:16 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:23 AM CDT     -1.37 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:01 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:51 PM CDT     1.24 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:26 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:09 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:57 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:45 PM CDT     -1.05 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots
12
am
-0.3
1
am
0
2
am
0.2
3
am
0.2
4
am
-0.1
5
am
-0.5
6
am
-0.9
7
am
-1.2
8
am
-1.4
9
am
-1.3
10
am
-1.1
11
am
-0.7
12
pm
-0
1
pm
0.7
2
pm
1.1
3
pm
1.2
4
pm
1
5
pm
0.6
6
pm
0.1
7
pm
-0.4
8
pm
-0.7
9
pm
-1
10
pm
-1
11
pm
-0.8




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southern planes -- texas   
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Houston/Galveston, TX,



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